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2023 NFL Conference Championship Odds Tracker

Updated: November 15, 2022

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We are tracking the odds to win the 2023 AFC and NFC Championships all season long—also read as which two teams will play in Super Bowl 57—from the moment they open. The graphs have been generated by averaging the odds from multiple sources.

AFC | NFC

You can see the most recent odds to win each NFL conference, as well as how the odds to win the AFC Championship and NFC Championship have changed throughout the course of the 2022-23 NFL season.

AFC Championship Odds

The Buffalo Bills are currently favored to win the AFC Championship. Buffalo’s AFC Championship odds are listed as short as +200 at DraftKings Sportsbook and as long as +240 at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you like the Bills to win the conference, and aren’t already betting at FanDuel, be sure to claim our FanDuel Sportsbook promo.

Here are some notes on the AFC Championship odds movement:

  • [November 15] In spite of back-to-back losses, which has seen them fall out of the top spot in the AFC, the Bills remain the favorites to win the conference. Their odds have faded slightly to +200, with the Chiefs right behind them at +220.
  • [October 4] The Broncos, who were once around +850 odds to win the AFC, are now as long as +1800 after losing to the previously-winless Raiders in Week 4. The Bills and Chiefs continue to battle for the best odds, with Buffalo currently on top.
  • [September 13] The Broncos, Bengals, Titans, and Raiders all saw their AFC Championship odds dip after disappointing losses in Week 1. The Bills remain heavy favorites, but Kansas City’s impressive performance in their win over the Cardinals has resulted in the Chiefs hanging around the top of the board.
  • [August 18] With the NFL announcing an 11-game suspension for Deshaun Watson, Cleveland’s odds to win the AFC Championship have faded from +1200 to +2000. It is believed Jacoby Brissett will now be leading the Browns into the 2022 NFL season, although a Jimmy Garoppolo trade may be on the way.
  • [March 23] The Chiefs saw their AFC Championship odds fade from +450 to +500 after trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. Miami goes from +3000 to +2000 odds, but they’re still near the bottom of the board. Indianapolis’ odds movement stemming from their acquisition of Matt Ryan is more notable, as the Colts went from +1600 to +1300, tying them with the Titans for the eighth-best odds.
  • [March 18] Cleveland has won the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, and their odds have improved from +1800 to +900 as a result. They are now a top five contender to win the AFC Championship with Watson under center. The Raiders’ odds to win the AFC Championship only improved from +3000 to +2500 after acquiring Davante Adams from the Packers. Las Vegas adds a huge weapon to their arsenal, but still have to get through an AFC West that includes the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers.
  • [March 12] After acquiring Khalil Mack from the Bears, the LA Chargers saw their AFC Championship odds improve from +1400 to +1000. The Browns, on the other hand, saw no odds movement resulting from their acquisition of Amari Cooper.
  • [March 9] With Russell Wilson being traded to the Broncos in a blockbuster deal, Denver’s odds to win the AFC Championship improved from +1200 to +650, the third-best odds in the conference. Wilson’s move to the AFC has also resulted in Kansas City, a fellow AFC West team who will see Wilson twice this season, no longer being the favorites to win the AFC. Buffalo, who has a much easier path to the top seed, and therefore homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, is now listed as the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
  • [February 24] The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have opened as the co-favorites to win the AFC Championship in the 2022-23 NFL season. It is different everywhere you look, though. Some sportsbooks have the Bills listed as favorites, and others have the Chiefs. The Bengals have opened with pretty short +650 odds to win the AFC Championship after their improbable Super Bowl run last season. The Broncos are enjoying shorter odds to win the conference than most would suspect, listed at +1100 and fifth-best on the board, largely due to the possibility of them landing Aaron Rodgers this offseason.

Some trends to consider before placing any wagers on who will win the 2023 AFC Championship game:

  • The New England Patriots have won 11 AFC Championships, the most conference championships of any team in the NFL
  • The Chiefs have won two of the last three AFC Championships
  • Three AFC teams have never been to a Super Bowl: Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars
  • The Patriots have won three of the last six AFC Championships, and four of the last eight
  • No AFC South team has won an AFC Championship since 2010, when the the Indianapolis Colts did so

Looking for the latest NFL odds? – Get current spreads, totals, and moneyline odds for all upcoming games this week here.

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NFC Championship Odds

Sportsbooks were pretty split on who the favorite should be to win the NFC Championship early on. Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Barstool Sportsbook all favored the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while DraftKings listed the Packers as their favorite, and FanDuel had the Bucs and Packers as co-favorites.

All sportsbooks reached consensus late in the summer, though, with the Buccaneers being listed as the favorites everywhere. Following Week 4, sportsbooks are still agreeing on the favorite, but it is now the Philadelphia Eagles, who are the only undefeated team in the league at this point.

Here are some notes on the NFC Championship odds movement:

  • [November 15] The Eagles remain the favorites to win the NFC after suffering their first loss in Week 10.
  • [October 4] The Philadelphia Eagles have overtaken the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the favorites to win the NFC Championship. The Eagles remain undefeated after a Week 4 victory over the Jaguars, while the Bucs are coming off a bad loss to the Chiefs.
  • [September 13] The Buccaneers remain the favorites to win the NFC Championship after beating the Cowboys in Week 1, but the rest of the top four differs depending which sportsbook you’re looking at. Some have the Rams second, while others still list the Packers with the second-best odds. Both teams suffered very demoralizing losses in Week 1. Then the Eagles are tied for the third-best odds at some sportsbooks, but listed fourth at others.
  • [March 18] Both the Saints and Falcons have missed out on acquiring Deshaun Watson, as the QB has chosen Cleveland as his preferred destination. New Orleans and Atlanta now go back to +2000 and +4000, respectively.
  • [March 17] Despite trading away Davante Adams, Green Bay’s odds only went from +425 to +450. Tampa Bay saw their odds improve slightly as a result, going from +400 to +375. The Cleveland Browns have been notified that they’re out of the running for Deshaun Watson, leaving the Saints and Falcons. New Orleans is believed to be the favorite, and have seen their NFC Championship odds improve from +2200 to +850 as a result. Atlanta has gone from +4000 to +1500 as they are the other option for Watson.
  • [March 13] The Buccaneers’ NFC Championship odds had gotten as long as +1400, but Tampa Bay is now the favorite after Tom Brady announced he is unretiring and returning to the Bucs for another season. Brady’s return saw Tampa Bay’s odds improve from +1400 to +375, but can be found as shrt as +300. New Orleans’ odds faded from +1800 to +2200 as well.
  • [March 9] After Aaron Rodgers announced he will be returning to the Green Bay Packers for the 2022-23 NFL season, the Packers immediately became the favorites to win the NFC Championship. Green Bay’s NFC title odds improved from +600, third-best, to +400, leaping the 49ers and Rams on the board. We have also seen Tampa Bay’s odds take a big hit, going from +850 to +1400 with rumors of Tom Brady’s return softening. Seattle saw the biggest movement, though, fading from +1800 to +3500 after the team traded away Russell Wilson.
  • [March 1] With rumors of Tom Brady potentially still wanting to play, we’ve seen the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Super Bowl odds improve from +1200 to +850.
  • [February 24] The Rams, who won the Super Bowl last season, have opened as the favorites to win the 2023 NFC Championship. They are listed as slight favorites over the 49ers, Packers, and Cowboys, who are all given +650 odds or better. These four are clearly in their own tier as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who will be without Tom Brady this season, and Arizona Cardinals come in next on the board at +1200 odds to win the NFC Championship.

Some trends to consider before placing any wagers on who will win the 2023 NFC Championship game:

  • Since 1999, only one team has repeated as NFC Champions: the Seattle Seahawks in 2014 and 2015
  • The NFC’s no. 1 or 2 seed has represented the conference in the Super Bowl eight of the last ten years—it has not happened in either of the last two years now
  • No NFC North team has won an NFC Championship since 2011 when the Green Bay Packers did it
  • The Detroit Lions are the only NFC team who has never won the conference championship

Archived NFL Conference Championship Odds: 2022, 2021, 2020

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