NFL Odds and Spreads – Line Movement for Week 18

• In the Week 18 NFL odds and spreads, four games have seen line movement of at least three points
• Three other games saw the total shift by a minimum of three points
• There are two games featuring teams that are two-touchdown favorites

When it comes to the final week of the NFL regular season, wild line movement in the odds, spreads and totals is a common occurrence.

As the Week 18 slate is unfolding, there are teams sitting out injured players, and other clubs pondering just how much they will be playing their starters during games that have no bearing on the standings for them. These are exactly the kind of elements that tend to brew up fluctuation in the betting odds.

Add in the fact that 12 of 16 games figure to play at least some role in the outcome of postseason positioning, and it’s a formula for manufacturing line movement.

Prior to taking a deeper dive into the analysis of this week’s line movement, let’s look at the up-to-the-minute Week 18 NFL odds.

NFL Week 18 Betting Lines

Odds as of January 6 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

In Week 18 against the spread picks, home teams are favored in 13 of 16 games. There is one game with a total as high as 50 points. However, three games are showing over/unders that are less than 40 points.

Chargers’ Line Charging In Wrong Direction

At the outset of the week, the Los Angeles Chargers were a 3-point road favorite over the Denver Broncos. Today, the line has swung 180 degrees in the opposite direction. It’s Denver that is the 3-point chalk in this game.

Evidently, there’s strong speculation that Chargers head coach Brandon Staley will be sitting down some of his starters, although he’s not suggesting that will be the case. It could also be because Denver is 4-1 ATS over the past five games, and 8-1 SU in the last nine games against the Chargers.

QB Injuries Sparking Big Total Movement

The NFL betting sites are also seeing dramatic movement in the totals for two games also involving injuries to starting QBs. The Miami Dolphins are not only without QB1 Tua Tagovailoa, who remains in concussion protocol, but Backup Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been able to throw the ball during practice this week due to a dislocated pinky.

Newly acquired QB Mike Glennon said that his family is coming to watch him Sunday. He believes he will be active vs. #Jets. Teddy Bridgewater continues to work through a dislocated pinky. Rookie QB skylar Thompson took 1st-team reps Wednesday #dolphins #finsup #NFL pic.twitter.com/mdcb04gs6e

— Josh Moser (@TheMozKnowz) January 5, 2023

That’s leaving third-stringer Skylar Thompson under center. As a result, the total on Miami’s game with the Jets shortened from 41.5 points to 37 points.

The total on the Vikings-Bears game was at 46.5 points in the Week 18 opening line. The injury absence of Fields caused it to shorten to 43.5 points. The 3.5-point shift in both games tied for the biggest total move of Week 18.

Two Big Games With Small Spreads

A couple of important games on the Week 18 slate are sharing the smallest spread of Week 18. Each are showing a line of 2.5 points.

At home, the 8-8 Pittsburgh Steelers, still on the cusp of the playoff chase, are the 2.5-point chalk over the Cleveland Browns. The NFL public betting trends on this game are divided. Moneyline and spread handle are with the Browns. Bettors in both splits are going with the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 18-1 SU in the last 19 home games against Cleveland.

The Indianapolis Colts are a 2.5-point home pick over the Houston Texans. This might seem like a meaningless game, but it isn’t. If Houston wins and Chicago loses, the Bears get the #1 pick in the NFL Draft instead of the Texans.

Two Games Showing 14-Point Spreads

The largest spreads of the week are two games sitting with two-TD spreads in the line, but for completely different reasons.

Locked in as the #6 seed in the NFC, the New York Giants can’t improve their lot in life. It’s expected that at some point, head coach Brian Daboll will be removing his starters from the game. Meanwhile, the hometown Philadelphia Eagles (-14) must win to clinch both the NFC East title and #1 seed in the conference. Bettors might want to keep in mind that the Giants are a stellar 12-4 ATS this season, so giving them 14 points might not be the wisest of wagering strategies.

Standing-O for Daniel Jones as the Giants are on their way to the postseason 📈

(via @Giants)pic.twitter.com/y9SqABtsOT

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 1, 2023

San Francisco is the team that could still catch Philly for the #1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers are a 14-point home pick over the pitiful Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is down to QB3 David Blough due to injuries to Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy.

The Skylar Is Not the Limit In Dolphins-Jets Total

The news that Thompson will be the man under center for the Dolphins led to the total plummeting for the Jets at Dolphins game. It was at 41.5 points and dropped all the way to 37 points.

That’s the smallest total posted for any Week 18 game.

Even In Week 18, Chiefs Expected to Total Up the Points

For the 10th time in 17 games, the total for a Kansas City Chiefs game is exceeding 50 points. Their game against the Las Vegas Raiders is set with an over/under of 52.5 points.

However, KC has gone over in just three of those nine games. On the other hand, the last five Raiders vs Chiefs games have all gone over. And four of those games were showing totals of 50+ points.

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