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Week 18 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Jan 3, 2023 · 10:41 AM PST

Week 18 NFL Picks Against the Spread - Early Lines to Target
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates scoring a touchdown with tight end Tyler Davis (84) against the Minnesota Vikings in the fourth quarter during their football game Sunday, January 1, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin Apc Packvsvikes 0101231770djp
  • The Week 18 NFL picks against the spread are showing 12 of 15 games having at least some impact on the playoff picture
  • Whoever wins the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans game captures the AFC South title
  • If the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots win their games, they’re in the postseason

Looking at the Week 18 picks against the spread, if this is what the NFL had in mind in search of parity, then congratulations are in order. As the teams line up for the final week of the regular season, there’s only three of 15 games that are guaranteed to have no impact on the playoff picture.

At Lambeau Field, both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are in need of a win to maintain their postseason dreams. But it will all turn into a nightmare if the Seattle Seahawks beat the Los Angeles Rams. The NFL Playoff odds show should the Seahawks win, they’re in and Green Bay and Detroit are going home.

Likewise in the AFC, it’s a win and they’re in game for the New England Patriots. But they’ll be facing AFC East champion Buffalo Bills. The Bills are still seeking to maintain home-field advantage in the AFC, so they won’t be laying down against the Patriots.

Whichever team wins between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans will be AFC South champions.

Which of these games are worth targeting in the Week 18 NFL odds as ATS picks? Let’s take a look at that and all of the Week 18 picks against the spread.

Week 18 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars JAX-5.5 JAX 1
 Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers GB-4.5 DET 1
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers PGH-2 PGH 1

Odds as of January 3 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the NFL in Week 18

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Jaguars, Lions and Steelers.

NFL ATS Pick 1: Jaguars vs Titans Is Winner Take All

Losers of six in a row SU (0-5-1 ATS), the injury-riddled Titans are sticking with Josh Dobbs as their QB1. He’ll be making his second career NFL start in Tennessee’s biggest game of the season.

Two weeks ago, Tennessee lost to the 2-13-1 Houston Texans. Last week, Jacksonville, 5-1 ATS in the last six games, whipped Houston 31-3.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 2: Lions, Packers Down to Last Lifelines

That the Packers and Lions are here at all with a chance at the postseason is somewhat amazing. Detroit was 1-3. the Lions have gone 7-2 SU since (8-1 ATS). Green Bay was 4-8. The Packers have won four in a row and are 4-1 ATS over the past five games.

However, it’s the Lions who are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games against the Packers.

Pick: Detroit Lions +4.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 3: Steelers Cling to Slim Postseason Hopes

There are two factors on the line for Pittsburgh. Win over the Browns and they can still make the playoffs. Either way with a victory, the Steelers finish 9-8. That assures head coach Mike Tomlin will have been in charge for 16 seasons and never suffered a losing campaign.

Pittsburgh is 18-1 SU in the last 19 home games against Cleveland. The Steelers are also 5-1 ATS over the past six games.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2 (-110), 1 unit

  • ATS season record 30-21-1, +9 units

Week 18 NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

  • Raiders (+9.5) vs Chiefs: Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS over the past six home games. Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in the last five games and 0-4 ATS in the last four road games
  • Buccaneers (+7) vs Falcons: Even while resting several starters, Tampa Bay getting seven points against Atlanta is a must bet
  • Patriots (+9.5) vs Bills: Playing for their playoff lives, New England will keep this one close
  • Giants (+13) vs Eagles: Philadelphia must win to clinch home-field in the NFC. Giants are 12-4 ATS this season
  • Dolphins (-3) vs Jets: Two teams that looked to be certain playoff performers in free fall. Miami at least still has a chance
  • Texans (+3) vs Colts: These two clubs tied in Week 1. Houston at least looks to be trending as a more frequently competitive opponent than the train wreck that is the Colts
  • Cowboys (-6) vs Commanders: Dallas takes command against a Washington team that blew its playoff hopes
  • Panthers (+4.5) vs Saints: Another team that squandered a golden playoff opportunity, Carolina is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 against New Orleans
  • Bengals (-6.5) vs Ravens: NFL’s best ATS team (12-3), Cincinnati keeps it rolling against a Baltimore team that just can’t score
  • Vikings (-2.5) vs Bears: Minnesota still has a chance to grab home field in the NFC
  • Seahawks (-6.5) vs Rams: A win for Seattle guarantees playoff football
  • 49ers (-13.5) vs Cardinals: Like the Vikings, the 49ers remain with hopes of grabbing home field in the NFC
  • Broncos (+3) vs Chargers: Denver has won eight of nine at home from the Chargers

 

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