Odds Still Favor Chargers Missing NFL Playoffs; Is There Value?

• The Los Angeles Chargers are 2-2 after four games this season.
• The Chargers first three games were nail-biters that could have gone either way.
• With so many injuries, it’s hard to envision this team being better than 9-7 this season.

The Los Angeles Chargers lost only four times in the 2018 regular season but have already lost twice in four games to start their 2019 campaign.

Will they be able to get it together and compete for a playoff spot this season or is the smart play to bet against them making the playoffs?

Chargers Odds to Make/Miss Playoffs

*Odds as of 10/02/19.

Injuries Piling up for Chargers

Year after year, it seems like the Chargers simply can’t avoid the injury bug and 2019 has been no different.

The list of players who were out last week was lengthy, and it’s likely to be a very similar list this week. That includes left tackle Russell Okung, safety Derwin James, defensive end Melvin Ingram, and tight end Hunter Henry.

The Chargers that we’ve seen so far have not been at full strength, so you have to take that into account. At the same time, when will this team be at or near full strength? That’s a big question. James, Adrian Phillips, Dontrelle Inman, and Sean Culkin are out for the year. Ingram is out indefinitely.

Players injured as of 10/2:

S: Derwin James
S: Adrian Phillips
DE: Melvin Ingram
CB: Trevor Williams
TE: Hunter Henry
TE: Virgil Green
TE: Sean Culkin
OT: Russell Okung
WR: Mike Williams
WR: Dontrelle Inman
WR: Travis Benjamin
RB: Justin Jackson
K: Michael Badgley

MG returns!⚡️

— #Chargers⚡️ (@BoltsCity1) October 2, 2019

The good news is this team got Melvin Gordon back, as he returned from his holdout but it’s hard to expect a team to compete when they’re missing so many quality starters.

How Good Are the Chargers?

At this point, it’s hard to gauge how good the Chargers are, they have two wins on the year and two narrow losses to Detroit and Houston.

However, as we look back, maybe Detroit and Houston are playoff-caliber teams, so those losses may not be as bad as they look.

On the flip side, the Chargers barely won in overtime in Week 1 and could easily be 1-3. And if you’ve watched them play this year, they haven’t quite passed the eye test.

Quarterback Philip Rivers struggled in late-game situations in Weeks 2 and 3, and while Austin Ekeler has graded out as one of the best backs in the NFL (per Pro Football Focus), the running game hasn’t been great.

The running game ranks 18th in the NFL with 103.5 rushing yards per game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4h9PAbfwnMA

The defense might be the bigger concern right now as they’ve been gashed. They gave up 208 rushing yards to the Colts in Week 1 and 338 passing yards to the Texans in Week 3. Their defense has just nine sacks on the year (21st in the NFL) and opposing quarterbacks are compiling a 111.0 rating against them (27th). Something is wrong.

Schedule Isn’t Friendly

The challenge with the Chargers is that they’re so beat up right now that it’s hard to go through their schedule and clearly check-off some wins. They should win this week at home against Denver but the Chargers are basically running out a B-squad right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost.

They should also win against the Steelers next week but if they’re not healthier, it will be a dog fight. And that’s the general feeling I have with this team right now.

The Chargers are currently 2-2 and will probably lose to Kansas City twice. I also see them losing at Chicago. That already gives them five losses.

Overall, if they were healthy, playing well and clicking, I’d be more positive about this team. They’re just so banged up right now that I can’t see them finishing better than 9-7, which might be optimistic. That being the case, I’m not betting them to make the playoffs.