Odds to Get No. 1 Seed in NFC: Saints, Packers, Seahawks and Everybody Else

• There are five games remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season
• The New Orleans Saints lead the NFC with a 9-2 record
• The Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers are on their heels at 8-3

With seven consecutive victories and the best defense among the contenders, the New Orleans Saints have the shortest odds in the race to earn the No. 1 seed throughout the NFC playoffs.

With five games to go in the regular season, the Saints are 9-2 and leading the charge for homefield advantage and the only first-round bye in the expanded playoffs. The Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers are in hot pursuit at 8-3. All three teams face just one team with a winning record the rest of the way.

NFC No. 1 Seed Odds

*Odds from DraftKings on December 4

Streaking Saints

The Saints are in control of the NFC race and are +100 (implied probability of 50%) to win the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Their winning streak includes wins the last two weeks without injured starting quarterback Drew Brees. With backup Taysom Hill’s limitations as a thrower, the Saints have leaned on their defense. They’ve allowed just 12 points the last two weeks, though last week came against the quarterback-free Denver Broncos.

Saints DC Dennis Allen on defense being ranked No. 1 in NFL in yards allowed: The moment you start patting yourself in the back is when someone else starts kicking you in the rear.

— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) December 4, 2020

New Orleans is fifth in the NFL with 20.5 points allowed per game. That’s much better than Green Bay’s 19th-ranked 25.7 points per game and Seattle’s 26th-ranked 27.6 points per game. The Saints are third in point differential (plus-9.2 per game) and second in yardage differential (plus-81.1 per game). If that’s not enough, they’re plus-7 in turnovers.

New Orleans closes the season with games at Atlanta and Philadelphia, home against Kansas City and Minnesota, and at Carolina. That Dec. 20 game against the Chiefs (10-1) could loom large in the seeding. While New Orleans is a game clear of Green Bay, the Packers own the tiebreaker based on their Week 3 victory. For what it’s worth, Brees’ target return from broken ribs is the Philadelphia game.

Rolling Rodgers Leads Packers

Led by Aaron Rodgers, who is having a season on par with his MVP campaigns in 2011 and 2014, the Packers are +200 (implied probability of 33.3%) to earn the No. 1 seed. Behind his league-best passer rating, Green Bay surprisingly leads the NFL in scoring after finishing only 15th last year.

The Packers will close the regular season at home against Philadelphia, at Detroit, home against Carolina and Tennessee, and at Chicago. The Dec. 27 game against the Titans (8-3) will be huge for both teams. The bruising Derrick Henry will present a major challenge to a Packers run defense that is 25th with 4.63 yards allowed per carry.

57 yard run for David Montgomery. This is not a typo. pic.twitter.com/cG0ttgyj40

— Roto Street Journal (@RotoStJournal) November 30, 2020

The potential for brutal weather in January makes the No. 1 seed a sparkling prize for the Packers. However, their on-again, off-again defense could spell trouble down the stretch. It must contend with Philadelphia’s Miles Sanders, Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey and Tennessee’s Henry the next four weeks. Those backs could make the Packers ripe for an upset.

High-Flying Seahawks in Pursuit

With Russell Wilson a runaway favorite to win MVP, Seattle looked dominant in opening the season with five consecutive wins. Losses at Arizona, Buffalo and the Rams knocked the Seahawks off their stride – not to mention Wilson down a couple notches in the MVP derby.

However, they’ve rebounded to win two straight and are +300 (implied probability of 25%) to earn the top seed. They have a chance to build momentum with a Charmin-soft next three games: home against the New York Giants and New York Jets, then at the Washington Football Team.

Welcome to the top, @dkm14! 💪

The @Seahawks WR leads the NFL in receiving yards heading into Week 13. pic.twitter.com/WjAuInT0CW

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 3, 2020

The season concludes at home against the Los Angeles Rams and at the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams (7-4) beat Seattle 23-16 in Week 10. After winning the NFC championship last season, the 49ers (5-6) are getting healthy.

Wilson is having a phenomenal season, ranking in the top four in passer rating, touchdowns, yards and completion percentage. He also leads the team in rushing. He is blessed with a premier receiver duo with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

But Seattle’s pass defense is on course to be 500 yards worse than any team in NFL history.

Best Bet

With a one-game lead and only one major challenge left on the schedule, the Saints are in the driver’s seat. Moreover, that challenging game is against the Chiefs – an out-of-conference foe that wouldn’t hurt them in any tiebreakers. So long as they don’t stub their toe before Brees returns, the No. 1 seed is New Orleans’ to lose.

However, at +100, there’s not a lot of bang for the buck. The chance to make some money is with Seattle, which is actually ahead of Green Bay in the standings based on the common-games tiebreaker but has the longer odds. A favorable schedule gives it a good chance to be 13-3. The question is, are there two losses on the Saints’ schedule? Perhaps. The Atlanta Falcons will host New Orleans on Sunday. They have won three of four, including a 43-6 smackdown of the Las Vegas Raiders last week.