Odds to Retire First: Tom Brady or Drew Brees

• Tom Brady is 42 years old while Drew Brees is currently 40
• Brady’s play has declined as his 60.1 completion percentage is the worst of his career
• Brees is currently fourth in QBR as he continues to be an elite quarterback

Tom Brady and Drew Brees are two NFL quarterbacks who are into their 40’s. For the most part, the play of both quarterbacks hasn’t declined and it looks like both could last for at least one more season – if not more. Brady is 42 while Brees is 40, but Brees is favored to retire first. Which of the two will retire first?

Tom Brady & Drew Brees Retirement Odds

Odds taken Dec. 19

Will Brady Retire After 2019?

It’s not getting much attention but Brady is having one of the worst seasons of his career. If the season ended today, his 86.5 passer rating would be his worst in a full season since 2003. His current completion percentage of 60.1 is the worst of his career and the 23 touchdown passes he’s on pace for are his lowest since 2006.

Sure, a lot of it will be blamed on the supporting cast. The team cut ties with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski retired at the beginning of the season. The offensive line has taken plenty of hits and Brady, who has been sacked 26 times, is not getting the protection he needs. At the same time, it looks like he’s tapering off.

On top of that, we’ve heard some rumblings that Brady won’t be back with the New England Patriots. He’s sold his house in the Boston-area and his key trainer, Alex Guerrero, has as well. ESPN’s Adam Schefter, who is as plugged in as anyone, said that Brady is more likely to retire or play elsewhere that return to New England.

That being the case, it seems like Brady is closer to retirement than Brees is. Either he retires or leaves, and if he leaves, it’s hard to see him being in a better situation than he is now. That means he may last a year somewhere else if he goes. With his play declining a bit, he looks like he should be favored here.

Will Brees Retire After 2019?

Brees seems like he’s a possibility to retire if the circumstances are right. That type of scenario might play out if the New Orleans Saints win the Super Bowl this year. They lost in the NFC Championship Game last season and if he could cap off his career with another championship ring, he might consider retirement.

In terms of the cap space, the Saints are in a bind in 2020. They have a $20 million cap hit from Brees and that’s before they even pay him a cent for his 2020 salary. They’ll have to do some creative accounting to make things work if he’ll come back. However, if he wants to be back, they’ll figure it out.

On the field, there’s really no indication that Brees needs to retire, so I’d expect him to keep going. Entering Week 16, his QBR is fourth-best in the NFL. The Saints have done a great job over the last few seasons, relying on the passing game less and using their running game more to prolong his career. It’s working.

The Saints also have a very stable setup with head coach Sean Payton, a great foundation on offense and a young defense that’s improved significantly over the last couple of seasons. Brees might be favored here but Brady is actually the one who is more likely to retire.

Tom Brady vs Drew Brees Statistical Comparison

So Who’ll Retire First?

At this point, my money is on Brady. It’s likely both quarterbacks are back for 2020 but Brees’ play hasn’t declined at all and he’s in a solid situation. As for Brady, his future seems to be less certain, his play has slipped and remember that he’s two years older. I’d bet him to retire before Brees does.