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Odds Say Trubisky’s 6-Touchdown Week Was a One-Off

Mitchell Trubisky of the Chicago Bears
Mitchell Trubisky threw for 354 yards and six touchdowns in a Week 4 thrashing of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo by Camron Good (wikipedia) [CC License].
  • Bears QB Mitch Trubisky threw for six TDs in Chicago’s Week 4 win over Tampa Bay
  • Trubisky threw for seven TDs as a rookie in 2017
  • Bovada offering a prop bet suggesting this is history that is unlikely to repeat itself

What a difference a week made in the NFL career of Chicago Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky.

Tossing six touchdown passes in a 48-10 drubbing of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Trubisky changed the narrative on his career from first-round bust to franchise QB. But do they project too much?

Bovada certainly is leaning in that direction.  The online sports betting site is offering a prop bet on the odds of how long it will take Trubisky to throw for another six TDs, and quite frankly, they don’t see it happening anytime soon.

How Many Games will it take Mitch Trubisky to throw his next 6 TD Passes?

Number of games for Trubisky to throw his next 6 TD passes Odds at Bovada
One game +5000
Two games +1000
Three games +190
Four games +140
Five games or more +275

Considering that Trubisky threw for just seven TDs as a rookie last season, they might have a valid point.

Trubisky Seeking Respect

The last time a Bears first-round draft pick was responsible for six TDs in a game, it was kind of a big deal.

That was on Dec. 12, 1965, when rookie running back Gale Sayers rambled for an NFL record-tying six touchdowns in a 61-20 win over the San Francisco 49ers.

By way of comparison, you’ve got to feel a little bit for Trubisky. Not only wasn’t his performance an NFL record, it wasn’t even a franchise record. Bears QB Sid Luckman threw for seven TDs against the New York Giants on Nov.  14, 1943.

The league was also unmoved by Trubisky’s showing. The NFL named Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff the offensive player of the week, even though by throwing for 354 yards and running for 53 yards, Trubisky did accomplish something no NFL quarterback had done before.

How Quick Can Trubisky Get Another Six?

None of Chicago’s upcoming opponents are particularly bad at defending the pass, which doesn’t bode well for Trubisky.

Chicago Bears Upcoming Schedule

Date Opponent
Oct. 14 at Miami Dolphins
Oct. 21 New England Patriots
Oct. 28 New York Jets
Nov. 4 at Buffalo Bills
Nov. 11 Detroit Lions
Nov. 18 Minnesota Vkings
Nov. 22 at Detroit Lions

New England, Buffalo, and Minnesota have all surrendered eight TD passes, tied for ninth in the NFL. Detroit (seven TD passes) is in the next group, while Miami and the Jets have each allowed five TD passes.

Overall, it works out to an average of 1.7 per game. Trubisky has thrown 15 TD passes in 16 games, or .93 per game. Based on that math, five or more games looks to be the play.

He Doesn’t Have To Be A Star>

With Chicago’s defense and running game, the Bears just need Trubisky to be efficient and they will remain contenders in the NFC North.

The numbers show how effectively Trubisky is doing that, and it bodes well for the Bears.

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A veteran journalist, Bob Duff has written over two-dozen books, including authorized biographies of Johnny Bower, Desmond Howard and Gordie Howe. He has covered the Super Bowl, World Series, World Cup, NBA Finals, March Madness and the Olympic Games.