Odds of Wild Card Team Making Super Bowl 53 a Lot Shorter After 3 Advance
By Eric Thompson in NFL Football
Updated: March 29, 2020 at 3:22 pm EDTPublished:
- No Wild-Card team has reached the Super Bowl since 2010
- After three advanced to the Divisional Round, the odds of one making the big game are pretty short
- Will one of the Colts, Chargers, or Eagles reach Super Bowl 53?
Oh no! After advising to bet that no Wild-Card teams would reach Super Bowl 53, three of them won last weekend! The Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, and Philadelphia Eagles have ruined everything.
….
I guess sarcasm doesn’t really translate to text, eh?
The fact is, panicking at this stage if you took the “NO” is unnecessary, even if the odds of a Wild-Card team reaching Atlanta are much shorter now.
Odds a Wild Card Team Makes the Super Bowl
| Will a 5 or 6 Seed Make Super Bowl 53? | Odds |
|---|---|
| No | -155 |
| Yes | +115 |
The odds of them winning a title also dropped, although the “NO” there comes at a big price and we already covered why there’s little value on that bet.
Odds a Wild Card Team Wins the Super Bowl
| Will a 5 or 6 Seed Win Super Bowl 53? | Odds |
|---|---|
| No | -500 |
| Yes | +300 |
If you haven’t bet this prop yet, what is the best way to go?
Why a First-Round Bye Matters
All month long, I’ve been touting that home field matters in the NFL playoffs. No Super Bowl participant has won a road game since Super Bowl 47.
And while the field of Wild-Card teams looks strong and some higher seeds are susceptible, you don’t have to go too far back in history to find examples of homefield winning out. In 2015, all four Wild-Card teams made the Divisional Round.
2015 NFL Playoffs
| Game | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks (6) at Carolina Panthers (1) | -2.5 CAR | CAR 31-24 SEA |
| Green Bay Packers (5) at Arizona Cardinals (2) | -7 ARZ | ARZ 26- 20 (OT) GB |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (6) at Denver Broncos (1) | -7 DEN | DEN 23-16 PIT |
| Kansas City Chiefs (5) at New England Patriots (2) | -6 NE | NE 27-20 KC |
There was not a ton of trust in some of those home teams (the gimpy Peyton Manning Broncos wouldn’t have been favored by nearly as much had half the Steelers not left Cincy in a body bag). Yet they all came through in a tight game on their own turf. That’s just how history goes in this round.
NFL teams are 152-62 straight-up all-time at home in the divisional round. Which road team has the best chance of winning outright this weekend?
— Stephen Campbell (@ScampbellHFX) January 9, 2019
If you already bet the NO or are considering jumping on it now, it’s still a strong play. Even if an upset occurs, you’ll have a chance to hedge in the Championship Round.
But there is one scenario that could ruin everything.
Doomsday Scenario
The one way for this bet to come to a grinding halt this weekend is if the Colts (+180 on the moneyline) and the Chargers (+160) both pull off the upset and guarantee a Wild-Card team in the Super Bowl (a parlay of the two pays out nearly +630).
If the Chargers and Colts win next week the AFC Championship Game will be played at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California.
— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi) January 6, 2019
Considering that is the only way to guarantee a “YES” this week, and next week a Wild Card team’s moneyline will pay out more than +115, there’s still no value on the “YES.”
Play “NO” or play nothing.
Sports Writer
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.
