Odds Only Slightly Against a Wild Card Team Making Super Bowl 53
- No Wild Card team has reached or won the Super Bowl since 2010
- Oddly short odds for one of the Colts, Eagles, Seahawks, or Chargers to make Super Bowl 53 are out there
- Is the “No” an easy play here?
One of the reasons this year’s NFL Playoffs are so intriguing is that there’s no weak link among the 12-team field.
There’s no Buffalo Bills, or Miami Dolphins, or Brock Osweiler-Texans here to act as a double-digit dog and a quick one and done.
Every team left standing is legitimately scary. The only nine-win club of the bunch just happens to be the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
The #NFLPlayoffs are SET! pic.twitter.com/O7ytoh8Tl9
— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2018
The Eagles, along with the Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, and Seattle Seahawks, are all terrifying opponents in their own right, but each one still has an awfully tough path to make it to Atlanta.
Yet, one betting site seems to like their chances.
Odds a Wild Card Team Makes the Super Bowl
| Will a 5 or 6 Seed Make Super Bowl 53? | Odds |
|---|---|
| No | -250 |
| Yes | +170 |
*All odds taken 01/03
When I first saw this prop I was shocked.
We already went over how crucial home games are to making the Super Bowl earlier this week, and the idea that you can take the top four seeds in each conference to make the big game for only -250 seemed like excellent value.
Then there was this prop as well.
Odds a Wild Card Team Wins the Super Bowl
| Will a 5 or 6 Seed Win Super Bowl 53? | Odds |
|---|---|
| No | -650 |
| Yes | +375 |
Are both bets a shoo-in?
The History of Wild Card Teams in the Super Bowl
A stat I’ve heard a lot this week as Eagles fans get hyped for another magical Nick Foles run is that 10 wild card teams have made the Super Bowl and six have gone on to win it.
That doesn’t really capture the struggle of the modern NFL wild card.
The #Eagles are hoping to become the 11th wild card team to make it to the Super Bowl.
Here's a look back at the previous 10: https://t.co/5GtasY1Bld
— Dave Zangaro (@DZangaroNBCS) January 2, 2019
When the NFL used to have just three divisions, wild card teams could host an opening playoff game. Only the ’85 Patriots, ’05 Steelers, ’07 Giants, and ’10 Packers have actually reached a Super Bowl by winning three road games.
Whether it’s referee bias or crowd noise, winning in another team’s stadium in January is a challenge. Doing it thrice is damn near impossible.
The Odds of These Teams Doing It
I’ve already mentioned I do like the Chargers to make a run this postseason, mostly based off the fact that they always play road games. However, that still doesn’t mean the YES is good value.
My biggest problem with this prop is that the odds have far overvalued the Eagles.
That Philly is getting +1600 to win Super Bowl 53 is just wrong. They’re +200 just to win in Chicago this weekend!
According to FiveThirtyEight, the wild card teams have a combined 27% chance to make the Super Bowl. The YES at +170 implies a 37% chance. That’s a big gap.
The Play
Hammering the NO on the Wild Card team making Super Bowl 53 is absolutely the way to go here.
There’s no need to play the NO on them winning the Super Bowl, because making it there is the hardest part. Once underdogs get on a neutral field, anything can happen.
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.
