Saints Are Super Bowl 53 Favorites Entering Playoffs; Are They the Safest Bet?

• The New Orleans Saints are favorites to win Super Bowl 53 entering the 2018 NFL Playoffs
• The Rams, Chiefs, Patriots and Bears round out the top five best odds to win
• Who is the best bet to claim this year’s title in Atlanta?

Another NFL regular season full of twists and turns has finally come to a close.

And while the odds board hasn’t been without some big movers and shakers (remember when it looked like the Jaguars and Buccaneers were good?), the season closes with usual faces listed as Super Bowl favorites.

The New Orleans Saints have the best odds to win Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams.

The perennially contending Patriots are just behind, while the miracle Philadelphia Eagles enter the postseason with longest odds on average.

Super Bowl 53 Odds

*Odds taken 12/31/18

With mainstays like the Steelers and Packers gone, this is one of the most exciting and diverse playoff fields we’ve seen in years.

But will this year follow previous postseasons and just see home teams dominate?

Homefield Matters in January

Wins by the Chiefs, Rams, and Pats last weekend to secure a first round bye were monumental, as the road to the Super Bowl hasn’t recently involved playing on the road.

The last time a team made the Super Bowl without a bye was the 2012 Ravens. Happy Wildcard week! It probably won’t matter.

— Ryan Adolfson (@ryan_adolfson) December 31, 2018

That year (see tweet above) was also the last time a Super Bowl participant had to win a road game to make the dance.

This year’s number one seeds aren’t just a trip to any old stadium either: both the Saints and Chiefs boast two of the loudest buildings in the NFL.

But where the Saints are 5-0 at home in the playoffs in the Brees-Payton era, the Chiefs have a much less encouraging history of protecting their home turf in the playoffs, losing their last six postseason games at Arrowhead.

While Mahomes looks to be the exciting start to a new chapter of Kansas City football, it’s tougher to like a high-flying offenses chances in sub-zero weather.

Very Large ❄️ SnowFlakes In #KansasCity#Weather #Snow #Kc #NewYearEve pic.twitter.com/4faIUMy0uG

— JamesonSharp ?? (@SharpJameson) December 31, 2018

The Best Bet

The Saints are favorites for a reason.

They’re the most balanced team among those with a first round bye, ranking fourth in offensive DVOA and 11th in defensive DVOA.

The only other playoff participant to rank top 12 on both sides of the ball is the Chargers, who will likely need three road wins to get to Atlanta. (Of course, based on their home crowds, that might not make much of a difference.)

Considering the NFC team is currently a -160 moneyline favorite in the Super Bowl and the Saints should be around a -280 in the divisional round, it looks like taking New Orleans to win it all at +250 is some pretty decent value.

That is where I would start with my Super Bowl betting.

There’s also some good value in the exact matchups of Saints-Patriots and Saints-Chargers, but we’ll get into that another day.