Opening 2022 NFL MVP Odds – Mahomes and Rodgers Listed as Co-Favorites, Brady Given Odds

• Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes are co-favorites to win the 2022 NFL MVP award
• Rodgers will be looking to become just the second player in NFL history to win the award in three consecutive years
• See below for complete odds, plus analysis on which player offers the most value on the odds board

Aaron Rodgers was recently named NFL MVP for the fourth time in his storied career. He’s won the award in back-to-back seasons, and has already been pegged as the co-favorite to take home the hardware again next season. Rodgers will look to join former Packers QB Brett Favre as the only players in league history to win MVP in three consecutive years.

Rodgers this past season win with the second shortest odds to repeat at +800, behind only 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes at +500.

2022 NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of February 16th at Caesars Sportsbook

This year, Rodgers opened with a +700 price tag to three-peat in the NFL MVP odds, which is the same number as Mahomes. Each has an implied probability of 12.5% to win the award, but there’s an argument to be made that Mahomes is a better value – more on that later.

A $25 wager on either QB would pay $200 should they win. A $50 bet would pay $400, while a $100 stake would pay $800.

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Rodgers vs Mahomes MVP Analysis

Most of Rodgers’ statistics don’t jump off the page. He threw the ball only 531 times for 4,115 yards this past season, while his 37 touchdown passes were tied with Mahomes, and behind Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert. He did lead the league in passer rating and QBR, but the main thing that stands out about his play is his efficiency.

Aaron Rodgers wins his FOURTH MVP.

🏆🏆🏆🏆

Second-most in NFL history.

That’s a bad man. @brgridiron pic.twitter.com/0mbst7Jpca

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 11, 2022

Rodgers completed 69% of his passes while throwing only four interceptions. That was three fewer than any other QB that played a full season, and nine less than Mahomes threw. He has an 8% TD rate over the past two seasons, which is 25% higher than his career average and likely not sustainable.

Aaron Rodgers' arm talent is not from this world…pic.twitter.com/3QlPwP1C1q

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) February 15, 2022

A down season for him is a touchdown pass count in the mid-20, while we just witnessed Mahomes’ floor. KC’s star QB is coming off the worst statistical season of his career, in which he didn’t miss any games due to injury, and it’s one that still produced 37 TD passes and 4,839 passing yards.

Patrick Mahomes already on that offseason GRIND 😤 @PatrickMahomes (via @bobbystroupe) pic.twitter.com/cp8ZOWRZHm

— Overtime (@overtime) February 4, 2022

Mahomes’ ceiling is so much higher than Rodgers’ because of the offense he plays in. KC throws the ball well above expectation, while Green Bay wants to run the ball and slow the game down. The Packers passed at the league’s 17th highest clip in 2021, while only three teams threw more often than the Chiefs. Green Bay averaged the 18th most plays per game in 2021, while KC ran the fourth fastest offense.

More passing volume and plays equals more opportunity for Mahomes to rack up stats. Last year he averaged career-lows in yards per attempt (7.6) and per completion (11.1) while posting his second-lowest TD rate (5.6%). If those numbers regress back to his career averages, we could be looking at another 5,000 yards, 45-50 TD season. Stats that Rodgers simply can’t match.

The @Chiefs made @PatrickMahomes their starter in 2018.

53 touchdowns later, he was Offensive Player of the Year. (by @surface)

📺: #NFLHonors — Thursday 9pm ET on ABC & NFL Network pic.twitter.com/BezLBKSbdz

— NFL (@NFL) February 8, 2022

Another reason to bet Mahomes over Rodgers is the elephant in the room. Rodgers still hasn’t committed to playing in 2022, although most experts do believe he’ll be back.

Brady MVP Buzz

Noticeably present on the MVP odds board is Tom Brady despite recently retiring. There’s been no indication that TB12 is rethinking his decision, however, he would be a steal at +4500 should he suddenly decide to return.

Tom Brady is (+4500) to win MVP next season 👀

(via @CaesarsSports) pic.twitter.com/yfv6ceHgbK

— PFF NFL Podcast (@PFFNFLPod) February 15, 2022

At age 44, it’s extremely unlikely he decides to call an audible. But, he’s still probably more deserving of a bet than Derek Carr and Jalen Hurts who are priced right ahead of him. It’s worth noting that if Brady doesn’t play, any wager on him will be refunded.

Brady has shorter odds than Deshaun Watson, whose NFL future is still in limbo, as well as Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield.

Of that QB group, only Cousins seems like a reasonable bet. He’s flashed 5,000 yards, 35+ touchdown potential in the past, and there’s at least a chance new Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell can put him in a position to excel.

Early NFL MVP Predictions

If looking for value in the MVP futures market, don’t sleep on Dak Prescott. He led the Cowboys to an NFL-best 407 yards and 31.2 points per game in 2021, despite battling a calf injury for a good chunk of the season. He played one fewer game than both Mahomes and Rodgers, but still put up the same amount of TD passes, and threw for more yards than the MVP.

Thankful @Dak pic.twitter.com/xGJPAgk01R

— America’s Team (@RoadToSix) February 15, 2022

Like Mahomes, Prescott plays in an aggressive, fast pace offense, which throws at an above-average rate. There are no concerns about volume, and he also has one of the most talented receiving corps in football at his disposal.

Four touchdown passes for @dak! ⭐️ #DallasCowboys

📺: #CARvsDAL on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/dNDCx3Kc33

— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2021

We’ve seen Prescott’s ceiling and it’s sky-high. He’s one of only a handful of QB’s capable of a season consisting of 5,000 passing yards, 40 passing TD, and 6+ rushing TD. Last year his MVP odds opened at +1500, making his +2200 price tag a year later extremely appetizing.

Pick: Dak Prescott to Win MVP (+2200)