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Opening 2023 NFL Win Totals – Chiefs, Bengals & 49ers All Given Highest Total of 11.5

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Mar 28, 2023 · 12:22 AM PDT

Kansas City Chiefs TD celebration
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates with teammates after catching a touchdown pass from quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Feb. 12, 2023. Nfl Super Bowl Lvii Kansas City Chiefs Vs Philadelphia Eagles
  • 2023 NFL Win Totals are live with the Chiefs, Bengals and 49ers all boasting the highest total at 11.5
  • KC has won at least 12 games in all five seasons with Patrick Mahomes under center
  • Check out the complete list of 2023 NFL Win totals, plus our favorite bet to target

With free agency in the rearview mirror and the NFL Draft still a month away, win totals are now the subject on everyone’s mind in NFL betting circles.

Online sportsbooks released their opening win total lines this week, and to no one’s surprise, the Chiefs are at the top of the list.

NFL Win Totals Betting Odds

Team Win Total Over Odds Under Odds
Arizona Cardinals 5.5 +110 -130
Atlanta Falcons 7.5 +100 -120
Baltimore Ravens 8.5 -125 +105
Buffalo Bills 10.5 -140 +115
Carolina Panthers 7.5 -120 +100
Chicago Bears 7.5 -120 +100
Cincinnati Bengals 11.5 -105 -115
Cleveland Browns 9.5 +115 -135
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 -125 +105
Denver Broncos 8.5 -110 -110
Detroit Lions 9.5 -150 +120
Green Bay Packers 7.5 +120 -150
Houston Texans 5.5 -110 -110
Indianapolis Colts 6.5 -140 +115
Jacksonville Jaguars 10.5 +115 -140
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 -110 -110
Las Vegas Raiders 7.5 +120 -150
Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 -125 +105
Los Angeles Rams 7.5 -120 +100
Miami Dolphins 9.5 +100 -120
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 -130 +110
New England Patriots 7.5 -120 +100
New Orleans Saints 9.5 +105 -125
New York Giants 8.5 +105 -125
New York Jets 9.5 -130 +110
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 -150 +120
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 -120 +100
San Francisco 49ers 11.5 +110 -130
Seattle Seahawks 8.5 -105 -115
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 -110 -110
Tennessee Titans 7.5 +105 -125
Washington Commanders 7.5 +120 -150

Kansas City, along with the Bengals and 49ers, all boast an over/under of 11.5 in the NFL win totals, while just three other teams, the Bills, Jaguars, and Eagles, are expected to win more than 10 games.

The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in all five seasons with reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes under center and navigated the most difficult schedule in the league last season to 14 wins and a Super Bowl trophy.

On the other side of the spectrum, the Texans and Cardinals project for the fewest amount of wins at 5.5. Houston is fresh off a 3-win campaign, and has failed to win more than four games in each of the last three seasons.

Arizona meanwhile, is likely going to be without starting QB Kyler Murray for the entire year, while they’re currently shopping their top-skilled position player DeAndre Hopkins.

Odds as of March 27 at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Buccaneers Biggest Faller Since Last Season

What a difference a year makes. At this time in 2022, the Buccaneers had a win total of 11.5, the highest in the NFL. They were fresh off a Super Bowl victory and an NFL Divisional Round berth in back-to-back seasons, and Tom Brady had just announced he was coming out of retirement for one more championship run.

Fast forward to today and Tampa Bay sports the third-lowest win total at 6.5. Brady has once again retired, while the team is starting to look a little long in the tooth. Even with TB12 at the helm last season, the Bucs’ offense was abysmal. They averaged just 18.4 points per outing, and don’t expect a big improvement with Baker Mayfield now running the offense.

Mayfield is on his fourth team in three years and is fresh off posting the worst QBR of his career in 2022. The offensive line is full of question marks, and most of the prominent defensive players who led them to a Super Bowl in 2020 are either gone or have regressed statistically.

To make matters worse, the Bucs’ schedule for the upcoming season is incredibly daunting. They catch a break by drawing the AFC South but still have to deal with the Jaguars, Bills, Eagles, Vikings, and 49ers.

Jaguars Biggest Riser

No team saw a bigger increase in their 2023 win total from last year than the Jaguars. Jacksonville sported an over/under of 6.5 wins at this time last year and promptly went out and won the AFC South and a Wild Card playoff game.

Expectations are sky-high for Jacksonville this season, and it’s not hard to figure out why. The move to hire Doug Pederson after the Urbay Meyer debacle was critical to the Jags’ 2022 success. One is a Super Bowl-winning coach, while the other was disgraced from the college ranks.

2021 number one pick Trevor Lawrence looked like a lost cause under Meyer, but in just one season Pedeson has Lawerence playing like a future MVP candidate. Lawrence threw for over 4,100 yards in his sophomore season and produced 16 more total touchdowns than in his rookie campaign.

Signing Christian Kirk and Evan Engram were home runs for Jacksonville, and their offense will be even more potent in 2023. That’s because Calvin Ridley is set to join the squad after a year-long suspension. Ridley is a legitimate number-one receiver, and gives the Jags a fantastic outside threat to complement what Kirk and Engram do over the middle of the field.

Another reason to believe the hype on Jacksonville is the soft schedule they’ll play. The rest of the AFC South appears to be in total rebuild mode, as do three-quarters of the NFC South who they’ll match up with out of conference. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the contests against those two divisions alone yield eight to 10 victories.

Fade the Rams

One team we should be looking to bet against is the Rams. Last year they opened with a win total of 10.5, but after an injury-riddled campaign their 2023 win total is 7.5.

On paper that may seem low, but I prefer to make the argument that it’s not low enough. For starters, Matthew Stafford’s injured elbow remains a major concern. It knocked him out of the ladder part of last season, and it’s still not back to 100%.

Reports emerged early this week that the team was open to trading Stafford, and that may be a good thing for his sake. Aside from Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, the talent cupboard is extremely bare for the Rams.

LA Rams 2022 DVOA Ranks

Total DVOA Weighted DVOA Offense DVOA Defense DVOA
24th 22nd 23rd 18th

The team has been criticized heavily for their lack of splashy off-season moves, and the most notable thing that’s happened to them is trading away All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey for a third-round pick.

LA has major holes on the offensive line and is also in desperate need of pass rush makeover. As usual, they don’t have a first-round pick this year, while their schedule is not exactly favorable.

They’re the third-best team in their own division, well behind the 49ers and Seahawks who both made the playoffs last season. The Rams have to face not only those two twice next season but also the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants, who are all fresh off playoff appearances of their own.

Their out-of-conference opponents are no cupcakes either, with the Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, and Browns on the calendar.

Pick: LA Rams Under 7.5 Wins (+100

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