Opening NFC South Odds: Saints Listed as Heavy Favorites, Falcons Offered at 3-1

• Books list the New Orleans Saints as -175 favorites to win the NFC South in 2019
• Can the Saints live up to their billing and take the division with ease?
• Who could be a better value pick in the NFC South outside of the favorites?

Robbed of a Super Bowl berth in last year’s NFC Championship Game, the New Orleans Saints have opened as odds-on favorites to repeat as NFC South champions in the early NFL divisional futures.

Odds to Win 2019 NFC South Division Title

*Odds taken April 23rd

If one blown call had gone the other way, we would be calling the New Orleans Saints the defending NFC, and potentially Super Bowl, champions right now. However, even with how it all played out (see video below for a quick reminder), we still find ourselves looking at the Saints ranked high above the pack in the NFC South, and with good reason.

Led by Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, their offense is still one of the best; and their defense, with another year under its belt, could be pretty deadly in 2019.

Will the Saints Stay Strong?

Wondering whether New Orleans will be as good as the last two years is reasonable seeing as Drew Brees is entering his 19th season at 40 years of age, but when you look at his body of work over the past few campaigns, do you see any decline? We don’t.

His completion percentage has steadily improved since 2015 and he just posted his best passer rating since 2011. We’re talking Super Bowl, though, so let’s slow down and take a better look at the NFL divisional odds.

The NFL schedule releases tonight, but we already know the opponents. Here is 2019 Strength of Schedule based on current rosters (not 2018 records): pic.twitter.com/fU78e0KfU2

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) April 17, 2019

The Saints do have one of the roughest first months out there in terms of schedule. But to say that they have one of the toughest overall schedules is a bit laughable.

Any team that gets to face the Bucs twice, Cam Newton’s slinky of a shoulder twice, plus the Jaguars, Cardinals and Titans isn’t exactly running a gauntlet. Depending on which Atlanta Falcons team shows up this year, there’s potentially nine wins (six divisional + the three “gimmes”) and a playoff appearance right there.

The x-factor in New Orleans will be the defense.

We know the Saints offense is as high powered as it gets and should lead the NFC in yards. It’s the defense that has been the Achilles heal these past few years.

Last year, it finished 14th in the league, allowing 349.1 yards per game. However, with a full rookie year on Marcus Davenport’s stat sheet and more cap space available with the departures of Mark Ingram Jr and Alex Okafor, watch for New Orleans to potentially be buyers before the season begins. They have some capital and picks to shop if need be.

Is There Better Value in the NFC South Odds?

After Devonta Freeman was shut down last season, Tevin Coleman went to San Francisco and with most mock drafts suggesting they’re looking for a late-round running back, we don’t love the Falcons.

Given the entire season rests on the doctor’s pins and needles in Cam Newton’s shoulder, we’re also not backing the Panthers either.  With all of that said, believe it or not, we are going to take the Bucs as our value choice, and here’s why.

As you can see in the post above, Tampa’s defense was not among the best by any means last year, while the offense also had its share of struggles.

However, this year will showcase the return of Jameis Winston, a Bruce Arians-led attack, along with new linebackers Shaquil Barrett and Deone Bucannon.

The team can also take solace in a solid first year under Vita Vea’s belt along with a highly ranked defensive prospect to come with the number five pick in the draft.

At +1200, we like the Bucs to turn a few heads.