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Packers vs 49ers Props: San Francisco Will Pound the Rock

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The San Francisco 49ers averaged 31 rushing attempts per game in 2019, and threw just 19 passes in the Divisional Round. Photo by surveyshmoney (Twitter).
  • The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers clash in the NFC Championship on Sunday (Jan. 19, 6:40 PM ET)
  • Our Divisional Round props were 1-3 last week  
  • San Francisco averaged 31 rushing attempts per game in 2019, and had 47 last week versus Minnesota

The 2020 NFC Championship doesn’t project to be nearly as high scoring, or exciting, as the AFC Championship, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t profitable prop bets for us to take advantage of.

The San Francisco 49ers are 7.5-point favorites over the visiting Green Bay Packers, and if you’re in line with online sportsbooks on how this game will play out, a fade of Jimmy Garoppolo is definitely in order.

Prop #1: Jimmy Garoppolo Over/Under 248.5 Passing Yards

Passing Yards Odds
Over 248.5 -113
Under 248.5 -113

All odds taken Jan. 17th

Make no mistake, the 49ers want nothing more than to run the ball. During the regular season, they averaged 31 rush attempts per game. In the Divisional Round, they pounded the rock 47 times versus the Vikings.

All that rushing volume significantly impacts Garoppolo’s passing yardage and, if the game goes as scripted, he’ll need multiple huge plays to exceed 248.5 yards.

Of course, this could all change if Green Bay jumps out to an early lead, but Garoppolo averaged almost 10 fewer pass attempts than the league average over the final two months of 2019.

Garoppolo’s Last Four Games as 7-Point Home Favorite

Week Opponent Attempts Completions Yards
12 GB 20 14 253
15 ATL 34 22 200
16 LAR 27 16 248
19 MIN 19 11 131

The Niners QB threw for 248 yards or fewer in 10 of 17 starts this season, including last week when he racked up just 131 yards versus the Vikings. The Packers have been extremely giving to enemy rushers this season, ranking 22nd in run defense, but 14th against the pass.

Pick: Garoppolo Under 248.5 passing yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #2: Tevin Coleman Over/Under 44.5 Rushing Yards

Rushing Yards Odds
Over 44.5 -113
Under 44.5 -113

San Francisco has been riding the hot hand at running back all season. After a monster performance in the Divisional Round, it seems likely Tevin Coleman will get the majority of the rushing attempts. Coleman out-carried Raheem Mostert 22 to 12 against the Vikings, and out produced him by 47 rushing yards.

Matt Breida is a threat to steal some of Coleman’s work, but after averaging just 2.1 yards per attempt last week and also losing a fumble, he should be a distant third in the pecking order.

Also working in Coleman’s favor is the fact that he’s always been a favorite of Kyle Shanahan. The Niners head coach started Coleman over Freeman in his rookie year in Atlanta and brought him into San Fran as soon as he hit free agency.

Green Bay’s run defense allows 4.96 adjusted yards per carry, so Coleman shouldn’t need a massive workload to exceed this low over/under.

Pick: Coleman Over 44.5 rushing yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #3: Jamaal Williams Over/Under 21.5 Rushing Yards

Rushing Yards Odds
Over 21.5 +100
Under 21.5 -129

Jamaal Williams returned for Green Bay’s Divisional Round game versus Seattle after missing Week 17, but barely played. He saw just one carry and one target, while Aaron Jones touched the ball 22 times. Even third-string running back Tyler Erving earned more carries than Williams, and it’s quite possible that the Packers have finally decided to give the lion’s share of work to Jones, their most-talented back.

Williams is considered by most experts a better pass blocker than Jones, so if you’re looking to buy stock in him, check out his receiving props. However, with Green Bay getting more than a touchdown, his rushing prospects are grim unless an injury opens up playing time.

Pick: Williams Under 21.5 rushing yards (-129)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.78 units

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