- The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers clash in the NFC Championship on Sunday (Jan. 19, 6:40 PM ET)
- Our Divisional Round props were 1-3 last week
- San Francisco averaged 31 rushing attempts per game in 2019, and had 47 last week versus Minnesota
The 2020 NFC Championship doesn’t project to be nearly as high scoring, or exciting, as the AFC Championship, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t profitable prop bets for us to take advantage of.
The San Francisco 49ers are 7.5-point favorites over the visiting Green Bay Packers, and if you’re in line with online sportsbooks on how this game will play out, a fade of Jimmy Garoppolo is definitely in order.
Prop #1: Jimmy Garoppolo Over/Under 248.5 Passing Yards
All odds taken Jan. 17th
Make no mistake, the 49ers want nothing more than to run the ball. During the regular season, they averaged 31 rush attempts per game. In the Divisional Round, they pounded the rock 47 times versus the Vikings.
All that rushing volume significantly impacts Garoppolo’s passing yardage and, if the game goes as scripted, he’ll need multiple huge plays to exceed 248.5 yards.
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 11, 2020
Of course, this could all change if Green Bay jumps out to an early lead, but Garoppolo averaged almost 10 fewer pass attempts than the league average over the final two months of 2019.
Garoppolo’s Last Four Games as 7-Point Home Favorite
The Niners QB threw for 248 yards or fewer in 10 of 17 starts this season, including last week when he racked up just 131 yards versus the Vikings. The Packers have been extremely giving to enemy rushers this season, ranking 22nd in run defense, but 14th against the pass.
Pick: Garoppolo Under 248.5 passing yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop #2: Tevin Coleman Over/Under 44.5 Rushing Yards
San Francisco has been riding the hot hand at running back all season. After a monster performance in the Divisional Round, it seems likely Tevin Coleman will get the majority of the rushing attempts. Coleman out-carried Raheem Mostert 22 to 12 against the Vikings, and out produced him by 47 rushing yards.
Matt Breida is a threat to steal some of Coleman’s work, but after averaging just 2.1 yards per attempt last week and also losing a fumble, he should be a distant third in the pecking order.
Tevin Coleman credited his teammates for his great performance today.
– Coleman had 105 yards rushing on 22 carries with 2 TDs.
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) January 12, 2020
Also working in Coleman’s favor is the fact that he’s always been a favorite of Kyle Shanahan. The Niners head coach started Coleman over Freeman in his rookie year in Atlanta and brought him into San Fran as soon as he hit free agency.
Green Bay’s run defense allows 4.96 adjusted yards per carry, so Coleman shouldn’t need a massive workload to exceed this low over/under.
Pick: Coleman Over 44.5 rushing yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop #3: Jamaal Williams Over/Under 21.5 Rushing Yards
Jamaal Williams returned for Green Bay’s Divisional Round game versus Seattle after missing Week 17, but barely played. He saw just one carry and one target, while Aaron Jones touched the ball 22 times. Even third-string running back Tyler Erving earned more carries than Williams, and it’s quite possible that the Packers have finally decided to give the lion’s share of work to Jones, their most-talented back.
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 23, 2019
Williams is considered by most experts a better pass blocker than Jones, so if you’re looking to buy stock in him, check out his receiving props. However, with Green Bay getting more than a touchdown, his rushing prospects are grim unless an injury opens up playing time.
Pick: Williams Under 21.5 rushing yards (-129)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.78 units
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