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Packers Given Best Super Bowl Odds Among NFC Teams After Clinching Bye — Are the Seahawks or Saints Better Bets?

Curtis Rush

by Curtis Rush in NFL Football

Jan 3, 2021 · 6:14 PM PST

Aaron Rodgers throwing a pass
Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
  • After Week 17, the Packers were given the second-best Super Bowl odds at +450
  • The New Orleans Saints were right behind at +800, while the Seahawks slipped after a tight win to  +1200
  • See below if we think either the Saints or ‘Hawks are a better wager than Green Bay

The NFC’s road to the Super Bowl goes through Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers clinched the No. 1 seed and lone bye in the conference after beating the Chicago Bears 35-16 in Week 17 on Sunday.

Next to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Packers had the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl going into Week 17, and their odds improved after a dominating game. The Packers are worth betting at their current price, just based on Rodgers alone. He solidified his odds of winning his third MVP.

2021 Super Bowl Odds

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +200
Green Bay Packers +450
New Orleans Saints +800
Buffalo Bills +800
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000
Baltimore Ravens +1100
Seattle Seahawks +1200
Pittsburgh Steelers +2200
Tennessee Titans +2800
Los Angeles Rams +2800
Indianapolis Colts +3000
Cleveland Browns +4000
Chicago Bears +6000
Washington Football Team +7000

Odds taken Jan. 3 at DraftKings

The Contenders

The Packers are red-hot, having won six straight as they head into the playoffs. There are 14 teams that make the postseason this year, seven from each conference, up from 12 in previous seasons.

The best team often has the best quarterback, so it’s hard to bet against the Packers.  Rodgers continued his MVP-type season with another lights-out performance, firing four TD passes, giving him a franchise-record 48 on the season. He tied Tom Brady (12 in 2007) for the most games with 3+ passing TDs in a single season in NFL history.

You’ve got three great QBs in the NFC in Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees, who closed out Week 17 with typical flair. It’s hard to bet against any of them. They all have great passing targets. They all know how to win, and they are at their best when the stakes are the highest.

The Seahawks fell out of the top five Super Bowl contenders back in Week 13 after being upset by the Giants while the Saints remained a top-three contender after losing to the Chiefs in Week 15.

Like Clockwork

The Packers are a quick-strike offense, having scored 20+ points in the first half for the eighth time this season, which is the most in the NFL. In the second quarter, Rodgers has 25 passing touchdowns, the most in any single quarter in a single season since at least 1991.

 

Rodgers isn’t letting age determine his productivity. At age 37, he tied Peyton Manning as the oldest players with 45+ passing TDs in a single season. Rodgers is also the first player in NFL history with 40+ passing TDs and five or fewer interceptions in a single season.

While the Packers were dominating the Bears, the Seahawks struggled against the San Francisco 49ers. But they got life late in the fourth quarter and won 26-23. The Seahawks are ruthless in closing out opponents, which makes them an interesting bet. They are 69-9 when leading at halftime in the Russell Wilson era, including 21-2 over the last three seasons.

Russell Wilson Is Great Late

Wilson is at his best in the fourth quarter. He now has 87 passing TDs in the fourth quarter and overtime since being drafted in 2012, the most in the NFL over that span. In a statistic that shows his brilliance over time, Wilson tied Hall-of-Famer Dan Marino (266) for the second-most passing TDs in a player’s first nine NFL seasons.

Meanwhile, the Saints were piling up the points against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, winning 33-7, with QB Drew Brees passing for three touchdowns. Brees now has 97 career games with 3+ passing scores, the most in NFL history.

The Saints have a potent offense when Brees is under center.  New Orleans has scored 26+ points in 10 straight games with Brees at QB. But as strong as they are on offense, the Saints are hardly a slouch on defense.

Saints Defense Never Rests

With five interceptions against Carolina, the Saints have registered an incredible 20 takeaways since Week 9, which is the most in the NFL.

They’ve gotten stronger in that department as the season has progressed. They had only six takeaways from Weeks 1-8, which was the sixth-fewest in the NFL.

The Saints are also capable of disrupting opposing QBs. Defensive end Trey Hendrickson became the ninth Saints player with 13+ sacks in a season since 1982 when individual sacks were officially tracked.

Good Value in Buffalo

Who to bet between the Saints and the Seahawks? Well, the Saints are better on both sides of the ball, so give the edge to the Saints. But there’s not much to choose from between Brees and Wilson.

There is good value to be had in betting the Bills, who have closed out a season like no other in recent Buffalo history. A $100 bet will get you a tidy sum of $800 if they win it all. There is growing sentiment that QB Josh Allen is ready for prime time, and he’s finally got the weapons.  Some think he should be a serious MVP candidate.

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