Packers vs Vikings: Full Week 16 Betting Preview

Two teams going in opposite directions clash on Saturday night (Dec. 23, 8:30 PM ET) in a throwback NFC North tilt between the playoff-bound Minnesota Vikings (11-3 overall, 10-4 against the spread) and golf-course bound Green Bay Packers (7-7 overall, 7-7 ATS). The weather at kickoff is expected to be a frigid -17 C, and could stretch to -20 in the second half. Below, you will find complete wagering advice for the game, including where to find the best odds and how to bet the moneyline, the spread, and the game total.

Team Injury Reports

VIKINGS

PACKERS

Packers vs Vikings Team Stats

The Matchup

Saturday’s game is a rematch of the Week 6 tilt which changed the course of the entire NFC North season. The Vikings won that game 23-10, but more importantly, Aaron Rodgers suffered a devastating collarbone injury that caused him to miss the next seven weeks and caused the Packers to slow-bleed out of the playoff picture. The win was the second in a string of eight straight for the Vikings, who have already claimed the division crown and are now battling for a first-round playoff bye.

The Minnesota offense wasn’t explosive the first time these teams met. Case Keenum tossed for 239 yards and a score, while Jerick McKinnon rushed for 69 yards and a touchdown to pace the ground attack. But it was more than enough to outscore a Brett Hundley-led Green Bay attack, which compiled just 227 total yards.

The Vikings D was relentless, racking up four sacks and four interceptions off Hundley en route to allowing just 10 points.

Should we expect anything different this time around, given that Rodgers is back on the IR after a brief one-week comeback and the Packers have officially been eliminated from playoff contention?

It’s true that Hundley has gotten better over the course of the season, and that the run-game has stepped up in Rodgers’ absence (ranking second in rushing DVOA). But it will be a tall task to run on this Viking team without the threat of Rodgers at pivot. Minnesota ranks fifth in both passing and rushing weighted DVOA, and the defense has difference-makers at every level.

Green Bay will struggle to get anything going through the air, as well. Davante Adams is out with a concussion and Hundley has failed to connect with Jordy Nelson whatsoever. In almost eight full games with Hundley, Nelson has just 27 catches for 203 yards and no TDs. Ditto Randall Cobb, who has just 28 catches and one score over that same span.

Maybe the trio will find chemistry somewhere down the line, but don’t count on it being this week. All-world corner Xavier Rhodes will lock up either Nelson or Cobb, leaving safety Harrison Smith to provide coverage help over the top of whoever is left.

On the other end of things, Minnesota boasts a steady offensive attack with a penchant for hitting big plays. Adam Thielen is Keenum’s top target, and he should feast on a defense ranked 26^th in weighted defensive pass DVOA.

While their running game has sagged by the numbers in DVOA, where they sit 18^th, if you’ve watched their games, you’ll know that Latavius Murray and McKinnon have taken pressure off Keenum with both the run and short passing game.

Since beating the Pack in Week 6, the pair have scored at least one touchdown in every game, save for the Week 14 loss to Carolina. Consider them a poor man’s version of the Saints’ Ingram-Kamara tandem, and a supremely effective cog in Minnesota’s attack. Expect the duo to be heavily involved again.

Vikings vs Packers Betting Opportunities

 Betting the Vikings vs Packers Moneyline

BEST VIKINGS MONEYLINE: -400

BEST PACKERS MONEYLINE: +330

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: Vikings (-400)
Straight up, this motivated Vikings team — which is working towards a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs — is too talented and to lay an egg against a team that is playing out the string. It’s not a huge payout, but a win is a win, and earning a couple bucks on Minny will leave you a lot more satisfied than watching Hundley flail against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Betting the Vikings vs Packers Against the Spread

BEST VIKINGS SPREAD: -9

BEST PACKERS SPREAD: +9

EXPERT AGAINST-THE-SPREAD ADVICE: Vikings (-9)
There’s a chance to get cute here, as a nine-point spread and sub-zero conditions could be enticing enough to bet on the Pack, but don’t. Hundley will be under siege and bewildered at what’s being thrown at him, while the Vikings will salt this game away with some deflatingly long drives in the second half.

Vikings vs Packers Totals Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 40.5 (-110)

BEST UNDER ODDS: 41 (-110)

EXPERT TOTALS ADVICE: under 41
This is going to be a rout, but think something like 27-10 more than 35-7. Packer scores will have to come from sustained drives (since their big-play threats are limited) and you’re just not going to do that consistently against these Vikings. Beware the opportunistic Viking defense creating a pick-6 or strip-sack that goes for a TD to kill this bet. But still, the under is the safer side.