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Patriots Given -1500 Odds to Be No. 2 Seed in AFC, Chiefs Listed at +700

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in NFL Football

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 4:46 PM PDT

Tom Brady at Patriots practice
Tom Brady and the Patriots only need to beat the Miami Dolphins at home in Week 17 to claim the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs, which comes with an all-important first-round bye. Photo by d. thomas (flickr).
  • The Patriots (12-3) hold a one-game lead on the Chiefs (11-4) for the AFC’s No. 2 seed
  • New England is a 16-point favorite over the Dolphins in their regular-season finale
  • Kansas City is a 7.5-point favorite against the Chargers in Week 17

The New England Patriots have been given -1500 odds to be the No. 2 seed in the AFC, while the Kansas City Chiefs are listed +700.

Odds to Be No. 2 Seed in AFC

Team Odds
Patriots -1500
Chiefs +700

Odds taken Dec. 23.

The Patriots (12-3), who have a one-game edge over the Chiefs (11-4), have a simple recipe for claiming the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye: beat the Miami Dolphins (4-11) at home as 16-point favorites. If New England loses and Kansas City wins, the Chiefs will takeover the second seed; they own the tiebreaker withe Pats by virtue of a 23-16 victory at New England on Dec. 8.

Both teams have already clinched division titles – the AFC East for the Patriots and the AFC West for the Chiefs – and finish their regular seasons Sunday (Dec. 29) with home games. While New England is hosting Miami, the Chiefs will be taking on the Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) at Arrowhead Stadium.

Pats 16-Point Favorites Over Miami

The Patriots are 16-point favorites over the Dolphins, so it would be a huge upset if New England did not get the No. 2 seed behind the Baltimore Ravens (13-2) and the first-round bye that goes with it.

New England’s Week 14 loss to Kansas City was its third in the span of five games. However, the Patriots have since bounced back with two straight wins.

They rolled to a 34-13 victory over the hapless Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 15, then beat the playoff-bound Buffalo Bills 24-17 this past Saturday to clinch the AFC East.

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To their credit, the Dolphins looked like they might go down as one of the worst teams in NFL history when they opened the season with seven straight losses. However, they have won four of their last seven.

Miami is certainly a better team than when it was walloped 43-0 by the Patriots at home on Sept. 15. However, the Patriots have covered the last seven times the teams have met in Foxborough.

KC Is a 7.5-Point Favorite Over LAC

The Chiefs aren’t as heavy of favorites as the Patriots this week, but they are carrying a lot of momentum into their matchup with the Chargers.

Kansas City has won five games in a row, a streak that began Nov. 18 with a 24-17 victory over the Chargers in Mexico City as a 5.5-point favorite. The Chiefs have covered in all five games of the streak and also been the winning side in 10 of their last 11 meetings with the Chargers.

If the adage that defense wins championships still applies – and that is up for debate in an era of high-scoring offenses – then the Chiefs are looking like legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

They have allowed an average of 9.6 points per game during the winning streak, including a 26-3 win over the Bears in Chicago last Sunday night. The defense is showing that the Chiefs are more than the Pat Mahomes Show.

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Parlay a Potential Play

The odds are overwhelming stacked in the Patriots’ favor to grab the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

There is seemingly no way they are going to lose to the Dolphins, even with Tom Brady having one of the worst seasons of his career. It had to be encouraging to the Patriots that the veteran quarterback had one of his best games of the season against the Bills’ strong defense, completing 26 of 33 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown.

Brady even threw a block.

The Chiefs should have little problem in dispatching the floundering Chargers, a team that’s lost of five of six with only a win over the lowly Jaguars sprinkled in. However, even at +700, Kansas City isn’t worth a play. The Patriots are not with a wager at the huge -1500 number, either.

Something to ponder is parlaying the Dolphins +16 and Chargers +7.5. While neither team figures to win, the Patriots and Chiefs are both likely to ease up in the second halves of their games to avoid any injuries that could impact the playoffs.

A two-team parlay at -110 pays out at +265.

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