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Patriots vs Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Weather Report for NFL Playoff Matchup

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in NFL Football

Jan 14, 2022 · 9:51 AM PST

Patriots vs Bills
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen celebrates with fans after an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022, in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bills defeated the Jets 27-10. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
  • The Bills are four-point home Patriots in an AFC wild card game Saturday night
  • Betting Record: 2-2 ML; 8-9 ATS; 1-0 O/U; -1.1 units
  • A look at the matchup and odds can be found below with a pick

Two AFC East rivals meet for the third time this season with the stakes bigger than ever as the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills at 8:15 pm ET Saturday in a wild card round playoff game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills (11-6) won the division title by one game over the Patriots (10-7) after the teams split the regular-season series.

Buffalo ended the regular season on a four-game winning streak and are favored in its postseason opener that will be televised by CBS. New England enters the playoff having lost three of its last four games.

Patriots vs Bills Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
New England Patriots +172 +4 (-106) Over 44 (-110)
Buffalo Bills -205 -4 (-114) Under 44 (-110)

Odds as of January 14th at FanDuel

The Bills opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line has gone down slightly. Conversely, the over/under has gone up a hair after opening at 43.5 points.

The Patriots are 10-7 against the spread this season, including 5-3 on the road. The Bills are 9-6-2, including 4-3-2 at home.

Patriots-Bills Weather Report

It is expected to be a frigid night in Western New York. The weather forecast calls for a low of 4 degrees with wind chill value down to minus-10 and wind from the northeast at 7 mph.

Patriots vs Bills Recent History

The Patriots beat the Bills 14-10 on December 6 in Buffalo in wet and blustery conditions. New England passed just three times while rushing for 222 yards, including 111 by Damien Harris, who had a 64-yard touchdown run.

The Bills won the rematch 33-21 on December 26 on the road when Josh Allen passed for 314 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for 64 yards.

Buffalo has won three of four games against the Patriots the last two seasons. However, New England is 38-23-1 all-time in Buffalo, including 31-17 at Highmark Stadium.

Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense

Expect the Patriots to again try to establish the running game with Harris on a cold night, though no precipitation is in the forecast. He also ran for 103 yards in the loss to the Bills.

Harris led the Patriots with 929 rushing yards in the regular season and was second in the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns. New England had the eighth-best rushing attack in the league.

Mac Jones topped all rookie quarterbacks with 3,801 passing yards and 22 touchdowns. He led Alabama over Ohio State in last year’s CFP Championship Game, so nerves seemingly shouldn’t be a problem in his professional playoff debut.

The Bills lead the league in total defense and pass defense.

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense

After being one-dimensional for the first three-quarters of the season, the Bills’ rushing attack has picked up thanks to the work of Devin Singletary.

In the five games since the loss to the Patriots, Singletary has rushed for 375 yards and scored five touchdowns – four rushing and one receiving. Through the first 12 games of the season, Singletary had 495 yards on the ground and three scores.

The Patriots are vulnerable to the run, ranking 22nd in the NFL in that category compared to second versus the pass. Cornerback JC Jackson topped the AFC with eight interceptions.

Patriots vs Bills Injury Report

Harris was one of 13 Patriots listed as questionable on Thursday’s injury report because of a strained hamstring but is expected to play.

The others on the list: center David Andrews (shoulder), defensive linemen Christian Barmore (knee) and Lawrence Guy (shoulder), linebackers Jamie Collins (ankle), Dont’a Hightower (knee) and Brandon King (toe), defensive backs Cody Davis (wrist) and Kyle Dugger (hand), kicker Nick Folk (left knee), wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (thigh), safety Adrian Phillips (knee) and offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn (hip/ankle).

Cornerback Jalen Mills was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Tuesday.

The Bills listed no injuries. Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (knee) is expected to return after missing two games.

Patriots vs Bills Prediction

The Patriots are back in the playoffs for the 12th time in 13 seasons following a one-year absence and Bill Belichick will extend his NFL record by coaching in his 44th career postseason games.

This Patriots team is not as talented of many of those that made the playoffs in past seasons. However, expect Belichick to find a way to keep the game close.

  • The Pick: Patriots +4 (-106)
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