Patriots vs Jets: Full Week 17 Betting Preview

Home-field advantage in the 2017 AFC playoffs will finally be settled in Week 17. With a win on Sunday (Dec. 31, 1:00 PM ET) over the New York Jets (5-10, 8-5-2 ATS), the New England Patriots (12-3, 10-5 ATS) will route the postseason through Foxborough, no matter what happens in the Steelers/Browns game.

The weather at Gillette Stadium is going to be clear and cold, with temperatures expected to dip to 14 degrees F (-10 C) by kickoff.

Below, you will find wagering advice for every aspect of the game, including the moneyline, the spread, and the game total, and where you can find the best odds for each bet.

Team Injury Reports

PATRIOTS

 JETS

Patriots vs Jets Team Stats

 The Matchup

It seems almost like a rite of passage each December. If this were a winter ball, there’d be the Patriots, dolled up and ready to don the crown as queen of the gala. Beyond the bright lights, lurking somewhere in the darkness, would be the ugly duckling Jets, spiking the punch and mumbling under their breath at just how annoying that damn queen is.

The Jets have a chance to somewhat spoil New England’s festivities and dance into the New Year with a win. Notching a W on Sunday would both avenge a Week 6 loss (in a game which might have ended differently if the NFL defined a “catch” in a sensible manner) and put a nice bow on a season that defied expectations for a Jets team that was expected to be picking first at the 2018 draft.

A New York upset coupled with a win by the Steelers over the hapless Browns would knock the Pats out of the top seed, and force them to potentially travel to Pittsburgh in the AFC title tilt. The Jets are heavy underdogs, but give Todd Bowles’ troops some credit. Five wins is infinitely more than the zero some pundits were predicting, and they bring a solid effort each time out.

New York’s problem is a lack of talent. Josh McCown was serviceable at pivot before he got injured, but Bryce Petty has been abysmal since taking over and, outside emerging receiver Robby Anderson and Bilal Powell (on a good week), the Jets are hardly explosive.

If this were a matchup of a full-strength New England at home against a Bryce Petty-led New York, it would be a mismatch of epic proportions. But here’s where it gets tricky. Bill Belichick wants that top seed, but not at the cost of losing Rob Gronkowski or Dion Lewis. Expect them to be in the lineup, along with Tom Brady, but don’t be surprised to see a conservative scheme.

With Rex Burkhead sidelined, there should be a more pronounced role for running backs Mike Gillislee and James White (assuming they step off the injury report and onto the field). Expect any passes in Gronkowski’s direction to be exclusively on clear 1-on-1 matchups in the red zone, far away from any potential car crashes down the seam.

Even though these two played a spirited 24-17 slug fest in Week 6 (an ATS win for the Jets), Vegas is doing everything in its power to tilt you towards the ugly duckling. But it’s hard to go against the queen.

Patriots vs Jets Betting Opportunities

Betting the Patriots vs Jets Moneyline

BEST PATRIOTS MONEYLINE: -1400

BEST JETS MONEYLINE: +950

Currently, only 888 Sport has the Jets at +950.

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: Patriots (-1400)
What gave away that the Patriots are heavy favorites? Oh good, you saw that moneyline. There’s just too much at stake for New England to lose at home to the Jets. There’s not a lot of value in this pick, but it will be the winner.

Betting the Patriots vs Jets Against the Spread

BEST PATRIOTS SPREAD: -15

Bet365 is giving 15, while most others are at 15.5.

BEST JETS SPREAD: +16.5

EXPERT AGAINST-THE-SPREAD ADVICE: Jets (+16.5)
Some will point to 2015 when the Patriots lost the season finale at New York, which bumped them out of the top seed. The end result was having to fly to Denver for the AFC title game, and we know how that ended. While New England is always prepared and is always built to win, here’s why a W doesn’t matter as much: New England does not fear Pittsburgh. Locking up that top seed is ideal, but it’s not going to be a difference-maker if they eventually have to travel to Heinz Field, where they just won in Week 15. When it comes to the Tom Brady vs Ben Roethlisberger relationship, Brady is the top dog.

I envision a lot of Stephen Gostkowski field goals, to go along with a Gillislee TD run. I see the Jets scoring at least 10 points. I see the Pats going heavy ball-control on their possessions, milking clock and nursing a lead. They’re hoping to get out of dodge intact and fully operational, giving them a full week to rest up and a chance to game plan with all the chess pieces on the board for whomever comes out of the Wild Card round. I do pity that team.

Patriots vs Jets Totals Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 43 (-110)

BEST UNDER ODDS: 43.5 (-110)

EXPERT TOTALS ADVICE: under 43.5
The Patriots can certainly put up points, but I don’t see them running away in this one. Other teams might try to put a final stamp on Tom Brady’s MVP campaign by letting the QB sling it. That’s not the Patriot way, and individual accolades won’t be on anyone’s mind on the New England sideline.