Proof That Pricey Free Agents DON’T Equal Wins
- How do teams fare after landing a high-priced free agent?
- What can we expect from this year’s big free agency spenders?
Each year we see NFL teams open their wallets and shell out monstrous contracts to lure in the best players free agency has to offer. This year’s examples include the Minnesota Vikings giving Kirk Cousins an unprecedented $84 million, fully-guaranteed deal, the New York Jets and Trumaine Johnson striking a five-year, $72.5 million contract, and the Jacksonville Jaguars landing Andrew Norwell for $66.5 million over five years, among others.
It goes without saying, these teams are expecting their new additions to improve their respective squads. Some are looking to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl, while others are more concerned with simply adding talent to their roster. But is that always the result with these high-priced free agents?
History says no.
Have a look at the five most lucrative contracts (for players who switched teams) from each of the last seven years of free agency …
5 Most Lucrative Free Agent Contracts Each Year
2011 NFL Free Agency
| Player | Pos | Old Team | New Team | Contract Details | New Team’s Change in Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nnamdi Asomugha | CB | OAK | PHI | 5 years $60M | 10-6 -> 8-8 |
| Johnathan Joseph | CB | CIN | HOU | 5 years $48.75M | 6-10 -> 10-6 |
| Paul Posluszny | ILB | BUF | JAX | 6 years $42M | 8-8 -> 5-11 |
| Sidney Rice | WR | MIN | SEA | 5 years $41M | 7-9 -> 7-9* |
| Zach Miller | TE | OAK | SEA | 5 years $34M | 7-9 -> 7-9* |
*The 7-9 Seahawks won the NFC West (and beat the Saints in the Wild Card Round) in 2010, but missed the postseason after signing Rice and Miller.
2012 NFL Free Agency
| Player | Pos | Old Team | New Team | Contract Details | New Team’s Change in Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | QB | IND | DEN | 5 years $96M | 8-8 -> 13-3* |
| Mario Williams | DE | HOU | BUF | 6 years $96M | 6-10 -> 6-10 |
| Vincent Jackson | WR | SD | TB | 5 years $55.5M | 4-12 -> 7-9 |
| Brandon Carr | CB | KC | DAL | 5 years $50.1M | 8-8 -> 8-8 |
| Cortland Finnegan | CB | TEN | STL | 5 years $50M | 2-14 -> 7-8-1 |
*Peyton Manning and the 2012 Broncos failed to do something Tim Tebow and the 2011 Broncos did: win a playoff game.
2013 NFL Free Agency
| Player | Pos | Old Team | New Team | Contract Details | New Team’s Change in Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | WR | PIT | MIA | 5 years $60M | 7-9 -> 8-8 |
| Andy Levitre | G | BUF | TEN | 6 years $46.8M | 6-10 -> 7-9 |
| Greg Jennings | WR | GB | MIN | 5 years $45M | 10-6 -> 5-10-1* |
| Paul Kruger | DE | BAL | CLE | 5 years $40.5M | 5-11 -> 4-12 |
| Connor Barwin | Edge | HOU | PHI | 6 years $36M | 4-12 -> 10-6** |
*The Vikings made the playoffs in 2012, only to miss the postseason after signing Jennings.
**The Eagles made the playoffs in 2013 after signing Connor Barwin.
2014 NFL Free Agency
| Player | Pos | Old Team | New Team | Contract Details | New Team’s Change in Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aqib Talib | CB | NE | DEN | 6 years $57M | 13-3 -> 12-4* |
| Jairus Byrd | S | BUF | NO | 6 years $54M | 11-5 -> 7-9** |
| Branden Albert | OT | KC | MIA | 5 years $47M | 8-8 -> 8-8 |
| Michael Johnson | DE | CIN | TB | 5 years $43.75M | 4-12 -> 2-14 |
| Eric Decker | WR | DEN | NYJ | 5 years $36.25M | 8-8 -> 4-12 |
*The Broncos lost in Super Bowl 48, then were upset in the Divisional Round with Talib the next year.
**The Saints made the playoffs in 2013, but failed to qualify in 2014 with Byrd.
2015 NFL Free Agency
| Player | Pos | Old Team | New Team | Contract Details | New Team’s Change in Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ndamukong Suh | DL | DET | MIA | 6 years $114.375M | 8-8 -> 6-10 |
| Darrelle Revis | CB | NE | NYJ | 5 years $70.12M | 4-12 -> 10-6 |
| Jeremy Maclin | WR | PHI | KC | 5 years $55M | 9-7 -> 11-5* |
| Julius Thomas | TE | DEN | JAX | 5 years $46M | 3-13 -> 5-11 |
| Rodney Hudson | C | KC | OAK | 5 years $44.5M | 3-13 -> 7-9 |
*After missing the playoffs in 2014, the Chiefs qualified in 2015 with Maclin.
2016 NFL Free Agency
| Player | Pos | Old Team | New Team | Contract Details | New Team’s Change in Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Jackson | DL | DEN | JAX | 6 years $85.5M | 5-11 -> 3-13 |
| Olivier Vernon | DE | MIA | NYG | 5 years $85M | 6-10 -> 11-5* |
| Josh Norman | CB | CAR | WAS | 5 years $75M | 9-7 -> 8-7-1** |
| Brock Osweiler | QB | DEN | HOU | 4 years $72M | 9-7 -> 9-7*** |
| Janoris Jenkins | CB | LAR | NYG | 5 years $62.5M | 6-10 -> 11-5* |
*The additions of Vernon and Jenkins helped the Giants reach the playoffs in 2016.
**Washington went from NFC East champs to missing the postseason after signing Norman.
***The Texans did manage to make it further in the postseason with Osweiler, beating the Derek Carr-less Raiders in the Wild Card Round of 2016.
2017 NFL Free Agency
| Player | Pos | Old Team | New Team | Contract Details | New Team’s Change in Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Bouye | CB | HOU | JAX | 5 years $67.5M | 3-13 -> 10-6* |
| Stephon Gilmore | CB | BUF | NE | 5 years $65M | 14-2 -> 13-3** |
| Kevin Zeitler | G | CIN | CLE | 5 years $60M | 1-15 -> 0-16 |
| Calais Campbell | DL | ARI | JAX | 4 years $60M | 3-13 -> 10-6* |
| Riley Reiff | OT | DET | MIN | 5 years $58.75M | 8-8 -> 13-3*** |
*The Jaguars made it all the way to the AFC Championship in 2017.
**The Patriots went from winning Super Bowl 51, to losing in Super Bowl 52 with Gilmore.
***The Vikings lost in the NFC Championship game in 2017.
Takeaways from Free Agent Spenders
Of the 35 instances, only 7 teams were significantly better after the signing
Yeah, there were 16 instances where the team won more games after spending heavily in free agency, but that number is very misleading. Looking into those 16 teams who immediately got better after spending big in free agency, six of them are rather insignificant:
- 2012 Rams (Cortland Finnegan)
- 2013 Titans (Andy Levitre)
- 2013 Dolphins (Mike Wallace)
- 2015 Jaguars (Julius Thomas)
Going from a 3-13 team to a 5-11 team is certainly a step in the right direction, but not exactly the desired result when spending that kind of money. And in Cortland Finnegan’s case, the 2012 Rams improved by five wins because Sam Bradford played a full season, as opposed to just ten games the previous season.
[The Broncos] did win five more games in the regular season [with Peyton Manning], but went no further in the playoffs than the previous season.
Looking to the remaining 12 examples, I’d remove the 2012 Broncos, who ditched Tim Tebow for Peyton Manning. They did win five more games in the regular season, but went no further in the playoffs than the previous season.
Now down to 11, two of the improvements cannot be credited to the player they signed in free agency.
- 2013 Eagles (Connor Barwin)
- 2017 Vikings (Riley Reiff)
Connor Barwin did post better numbers in 2013 than in 2012, but that still only amounted to 5.0 sacks. It should also be noted that his $36-million contract dwarfed in comparison to most others in the top five of their free agency class. The 2013 Eagles have Chip Kelly and Nick Foles to thank for their dramatic improvement.
And while Reiff did help improve the offensive line in Minnesota last season, the tackle received a very underwhelming 48.6 grading from PFF, ranking 59th at his position.
Looking to the remaining nine instances, two of them were the same team:
- 2016 Giants (Olivier Vernon and Janoris Jenkins)
- 2017 Jaguars (AJ Bouye and Calais Campbell)
That brings us to our final seven teams.
Of the 23 teams who missed the playoffs before their free agency splash, only 6 made the playoffs the next season
Two of these teams would wind up playing in their respective conference championship: the 2017 Jaguars and Vikings.
Of the 10 teams who made the playoffs the year before their free agency splash, only 4 returned the next season
The 2012 Broncos made the playoffs again after signing Peyton Manning; the 2014 Broncos also made it again after shelling out a lot of money for Aqib Talib; the 2016 Texans managed to make it back to the postseason after obtaining Brock Osweiler; and the 2017 Patriots went back to the playoffs after signing Stephon Gilmore to an un-Patriot-like contract.
Since 2011, no team who handed out one of the five biggest contracts in free agency has won the Super Bowl the following season
The Patriots came close last season, but fell in the big game to the Eagles.
What Does All This Mean?
There is no doubt there are certain players in the NFL who are so elite that they would immediately turn any team into a contender – take Aaron Rodgers, for example. But there aren’t very many of these players. The majority of them are QBs, who have the ability to impact a game the most, whereas an offensive lineman can only do so much on his own.
Trying to install a great player into a new scheme with new teammates to rely on is very difficult, especially in today’s NFL, where there are so many restrictions to offseason activities. Quite often, it takes time for a player to learn how to play within a new system and build chemistry with new teammates. It’s not an impossible task, but it does require patience.
[W]hen your new high-priced addition doesn’t live up to expectations, all those other holes become a lot more noticeable.
When a team makes such a heavy investment into one player, it often results in them losing other players who they had relied upon in the past, and opens up some holes elsewhere on the roster. And when your new high-priced addition doesn’t live up to expectations, all those other holes become a lot more noticeable.
This is why signing pricey free agent does not result in wins as often as you’d think. More often it has the reverse affect.
2018’s Top 5 Free Agent Contracts
| Player | Pos | Old Team | New Team | Contract Details | New Team’s Change in Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | MIN | 3 years $84M | 13-3 -> ? |
| Trumaine Johnson | CB | LAR | NYJ | 5 years $72.5M | 5-11 -> ? |
| Andrew Norwell | G | CAR | JAX | 5 years $66.5M | 10-6 -> ? |
| Nate Solder | OT | NE | NYG | 4 years $62M | 3-13 -> ? |
| Malcolm Butler | CB | NE | TEN | 5 years $61.25M | 9-7 -> ? |
Will these five teams suffer the same fate of so many before them? Will they be able to break the trend? Here’s the odds for each.
Minnesota Vikings
Odds the Vikings win Super Bowl 53: 14/1
Odds the Vikings win the NFC North: 5/3
Over/Under regular-season wins for the Vikings in 2018: 11.5
Aaron Rodgers’ return is going to make life a whole lot tougher for the Vikings in the NFC North.
New York Jets
Odds the Jets make the playoffs in 2018: 33/1
Over/Under regular-season wins for the Jets in 2018: 4.5
It’s reasonable to assume the Jets’ secondary will be improved with the additions of Trumaine Johnson and Morris Claiborne, but they’ll likely spend a large portion of the season giving their rookie QB some reps under center.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Odds the Jaguars win Super Bowl 53: 22/1
Odds the Jaguars win the AFC South in 2018: 3/2
Over/Under regular-season wins for the Jaguars in 2018: 9.5
Outside of Paul Posluszny, who announced his retirement earlier this month, Jacksonville will return all their starters on the defensive side of the ball. The addition of Andrew Norwell on the offensive line will also be huge for Leonard Fournette and their ground game. But having to play a first-placed schedule, as opposed to a fourth-placed one last year, the return of Deshaun Watson for Houston, and continuing to put Blake Bortles under center will all prove problematic for the Jags.
New York Giants
Odds the Giants make the playoffs in 2018: 3/1
Over/Under regular-season wins for the Giants in 2018: 7.5
Throw out what you saw from the Giants in 2017. Their offensive line was so deplorable it sunk the whole team. New York’s defense may not return to their dominance of 2016, but they are much better than what the stats say last year. The NFC is just too stacked right now.
Tennessee Titans
Odds the Titans make the playoffs in 2018: 7/3
Over/Under regular-season wins for the Titans in 2018: 7.5
The addition of Malcolm Butler will help the Titans’ 25th-ranked pass defense from a year ago, but Deshaun Watson and the Texans will likely leapfrog Tennessee in the AFC South.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
