NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages for Jaguars vs Chiefs Divisional Round Playoffs
- Sixty-five percent of the ATS money is on Kansas City per the Jaguars vs Chiefs public betting splits
- Over 53 is drawing more than the majority of the tickets, but more money is on the under
- The complete breakdown of the Jaguars vs Chiefs public betting splits and key trends can be found below
The Divisional Round is widely regarded as the best weekend of football of the season. Take a look at the matchups in the AFC and it’s hard to argue that notion. Read on for an analysis of Jaguars vs Chiefs Public Betting splits.
Both contests feature elite quarterbacks on both sides and are expected to produce plenty of points. The slate begins with Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars visiting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Saturday afternoon, and bettors have taken a clear stand in this game.
Per our public betting trends, the spread action significantly favors Kansas City. That Chiefs’ love hasn’t gone unnoticed, forcing online sportsbooks to adjust their line.
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Jaguars vs Chiefs ATS Betting Splits
KC is now favored by 9 points, after opening at -8.5. The new number isn’t deterring Chiefs money, as 65% of the spread handle is on Mahomes and Co. That action is the result of 56% of the ATS tickets, as bettors are confident we’re going to see a similar outcome to their Week 10 meeting.
Kansas City prevailed 27-17 in that matchup, covering as 9.5-point favorites. The Chiefs lost the turnover battle 3-nothing in that game, but still cruised thanks to 486 yards of total offense.
Mahomes shredded the Jacksonville secondary for 331 passing yards and four scores and is set up to do so again on Saturday. The Jags are ranked 11th against the run per DVOA, but 30th against the pass. Mahomes threw 11 TD passes in three playoff games last year, and is a strong bet to exceed 2.5 touchdown throws per our Jaguars vs Chiefs player props.
The MVP frontrunner has a strong track record in his postseason career. He’s posted an 8-3 record straight up, advancing to four straight AFC Championship games. Mahomes is 7-4 ATS in his 11 playoff starts, covering six of nine home postseason outings.
NFL Offensive Ranks Per DVOA
| Team | Rank |
|---|---|
| KC Chiefs | 1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 |
| Detroit Lions | 5 |
Today’s game marks KC’s 14th straight playoff contest where they’ve been favored, which is the longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Andy Reid-led teams are 15-9 against the spread off a bye, and KC’s extra week off has helped almost the entire roster get healthy for this tilt.
The lone exception is MeCole Hardman. The speedster will sit for the 10th straight game due to a pelvis injury according to the Jaguars vs Chiefs injury report.
As for Jacksonville, they were just 9-9 ATS this season, but have caught fire since early December. They’ve covered in five of their past six outings, including last week in their thrilling comeback win over the Chargers.
Underdogs went 3-1 against the spread last Divisional Round…
Will it be the same this year? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/YtbnjfvtWa
— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) January 17, 2023
The Jaguars have an average cover margin of 11.75 points during that stretch. However, they’ve struggled to get the job done away from home. Lawrence and Co. have covered in only six of 11 road tilts since he came into the league and were 4-5 ATS as visitors during the regular season.
Jacksonville vs Kansas City Total Betting Splits
Total-wise, the over/under currently sits at 53, up a full point since the opening line was released. 63% of the over/under tickets are banking on a high-scoring affair, but it looks like big-money bettors are targeting the under.
That side is drawing half of all money wagered on the total, despite only garnering 37% of the tickets. Overs went 4-2 on Wild Card Weekend, but that doesn’t mean you should be running to the window to bet over 53 in this contest.
For starters, KC games were 6-2 to the under at home this season. The Chiefs’ defense saw major improvements over the ladder part of the campaign, yielding just 19.8 points per outing over their final five contests. They ranked seventh in expected points added per play on defense during that stretch and second in opponent success rate.
Who would have thought … the #chiefs defense is playing it’s best football down the stretch. Once again it took a minute, it’s still not perfect, but they’re coming together. My report on NFL NOW on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/XFUIL8kTBB
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 17, 2023
Jacksonville’s offense meanwhile, performed much better at home than on the road this season. They scored 19 or fewer points in three of their final five away games, after scoring 27 or more points in four of their past five contests in their own stadium.
Jaguars vs Chiefs Moneyline Splits
As for the moneyline action, like the spread market, the tickets and handle favor KC. The Chiefs are drawing 76% of the bets and 79% of the money as -460 favorites. You’d have to imagine the majority of those wagers are tied up in parlays, and a Chiefs-Eagles moneyline parlay on Saturday is going to be extremely popular.
Per our Jaguars vs Chiefs picks, Patrick Mahomes is 31-7 all-time at home, including 7-1 this season. He’s never lost to Jacksonville in his career posting a 3-0 mark while throwing for over 1,000 yards and completing 69% of his passes.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
