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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Predictions and Picks for Divisional Round Playoffs

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Jan 21, 2023 · 7:01 AM PST

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes calling signals
Jan 7, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) prepares to take the snap against the Las Vegas Raiders in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 9-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars in their NFL Divisional Round game on Saturday, January 21 in the Jaguars vs Chiefs odds
  • Kansas City is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread over the club’s past four Divisional Round games
  • Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in the club’s past four Divisional Round games. See our top Jaguars vs Chiefs picks here

The thing about the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8, 9-9 ATS) and Kansas City Chiefs (14-3, 6-10-1 ATS) is that they almost always cover the spread in NFL Divisional Round playoff games. Of course, the other thing is that they’re playing each other in this week’s Divisional Round action, so obviously, they both can’t cover in the Jaguars vs Chiefs odds.

Jacksonville is 4-0 against the spread in the club’s last four Divisional Round contests. Kansas City is 7-1  straight up and 6-2 ATS in the last eight Divisional Round games as a betting favorite.

It’s Kansas City that is the massive 9-point home chalk in this game. The Chiefs are 3-4 ATS as a favorite of 9+ points this season.

Jaguars vs Chiefs Odds

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Jacksonville Jaguars +9 (-110) O 52.5 (-110) +400
Kansas City Chiefs -9 (-110) U 52.5 (-110) -550

Odds as of January 20 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code for the NFL here

The Chiefs were set as 8.5-point home favorites when the NFL Divisional round opening lines were unveiled. That number has been bet to -9 in the Jaguars vs Chiefs odds.

Jacksonville vs Kansas City Game Info

Kickoff at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:30 pm ET on Saturday, January 21. The weather forecast is calling for a mix of rain and snow, 4 mph wind and a temperature of 38 degrees. The game is airing on NBC in the USA and on DAZN in Canada.

Jaguars vs Chiefs NFL Betting Trends

In the NFL public betting trends, the Chiefs are being embraced by the people. Kansas City is drawing 64% of handle and 56% of bets in spread splits. The moneyline splits are heavily with the Chiefs. There’s 79% of handle and 76% of bets backing Kansas City.

Regarding the total of 52.5 points, the public splits are with the over. There’s 51% of handle and 63% of bets going for a big total. However, when the two teams met in Week 9, the total was 51,5 points and they went under in Kansas City’s 27-17 victory over Jacksonville.

Kansas City is the chalk in the Super Bowl odds at +310. Jacksonville is showing the longest odds of the eight remaining teams at +3500.

Mahomes Is Money In Divisional Round

With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the second round of NFL postseason play. However, it’s worth noting that the one game in which Mahomes started and KC didn’t cover, he was injured and didn’t finish the game.

That was in 2021 and the Chiefs still won SU 22-17 as an 8-point pick over Cleveland with Chad Henne under center. In the three Divisional Round Games that he’s both started and finished, Mahomes has put up 31, 51 and 42 points.

Can Jaguars Contain Kelce?

Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence threw for four touchdowns in the rally against the Chargers. However, his four picks were also playing a role in digging the hole that the Jaguars needed to climb out of in order to rally. They won’t want to get that far behind to KC.

Another factor they’ll need to accomplish is something the Jacksonville defense has struggled to do all season long – contain the other team’s tight end. And it just so happens that in Travis Kelce, the Chiefs have the best TE in the business. If you’re seeking an NFL player prop to play in this game, look no further than right here in your Jaguars vs Chiefs picks.

Led by Kelce, KC tight ends have accounted for an NFL-leading 1,765 receiving yards and 16 TDs this season. Jacksonville is an NFL bottom-feeder when it comes to defending the tight end. The Jaguars’ defense is surrendering a league-worst 68.61 ypg to TEs this season. Jacksonville is also ninth-worst in the NFL in TE reception totals per game, allowing 5.28 catches.

In the Week 9 matchup, Kelce caught six passes for 81 yards and a TD against the Jags.

Chiefs WR Hardman Out

The value of the bye week is emphasized by looking at Kansas City’s injury report. Just one stater, wide receiver Mecole Hardman, shows an injury designation. He’s out with a pelvis injury.

While no Jacksonville starter is out, three on offense are listed as questionable. They include Lawrence (toe), center Luke Fortner (back) and RG Brandon Scherff (abdomen).

Jaguars vs Chiefs Prediction

Kansas City was a 9.5-point home pick when these clubs met in November. The Chiefs were able to cover in their 27-17 win.

Jacksonville and the New York Giants are the first two teams to open the season with Super Bowl odds of +10000 or greater and make it to the Divisional Round since the 1987 Indianapolis Colts and Houston Oilers. Both of those teams were whipped and failed to cover as underdogs of 8+ points.

A similar fate awaits the Jaguars who will fail to cover in this weekend’s Jaguars vs Chiefs odds.

  • Jaguars vs Chiefs Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -9 (-110)
  • 2022-23 record (0-0 ML, 8-9 ATS, 1-0 O/U)

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