- Raiders’ Super Bowl odds plummet after Week 1 beating
- Can Oakland recover from poor start?
- Searching for value deep down the odds board
It’s not exactly a great time to be an Oakland Raiders fan.
Average Super Bowl 53 Odds for AFC West Teams
First, they got a glimpse of Khalil Mack in Bears colors on Sunday night, after the Raiders dealt their disgruntled All-Pro for a package of draft picks just ahead of opening weekend in the NFL.
Here’s hoping they draft well, because it’s hard to explain why Oakland wouldn’t pony up for this (on a limited snap count, all in one half):
Next, the much hyped ‘old-is-new’ Raiders, led by quarterback Derek Carr and head coach Jon Gruden crashed and burned Monday night at home against the powerhouse LA Rams.
How bad did it go? Even the Detroit Lions thought that 33-13 score was kind for the true shredding we witnessed.
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) September 11, 2018
Did you know that before the start of the year, the Raiders had the seventh best odds in the AFC to win the Super Bowl?
Well, things done changed.
Super Bowl 53 Odds
|New England Patriots||+600|
|Los Angeles Rams||+800|
|Green Bay Packers||+1000|
*Follow the link in the table for all Super Bowl 53 betting options
Those are the five teams at the top of the board, a whole lot of filler (not shown), then the Raiders, who now have plummeted faster than Enron stock to the seventh longest odds in the entire league.
Is Vegas jumping the gun a little bit? Let’s delve into the abyss – the Black Hole, if you will.
Derek Carr was awful against the Rams
This was a total no-show by the Raiders pivot. After a decent start, Carr regressed wildly and his box score read more like a horror script: 29-40, 303 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT, 10.9 QBR.
Every player has a signature play. "Clean pocket throwaway" is Derek Carr's https://t.co/kA8aw2PjGj
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 11, 2018
It also included perhaps, as close to an underhand loft for an interception that you will ever see. I mean, that thing came with wrapping paper, a bow, and a signed card from Carr.
— YourSports (@YourSports) September 11, 2018
Thankfully, it’s not only Carr. Aside from Jared Cook, who seems to have been in receiver purgatory forever, hardly any other Raider who was supposed to ball out showed up.
Marshawn Lynch was good early with a signature TD run to open the game, but he was ineffective for about the next 55 minutes, running for just 41 yards on 11 carries. Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson were pictures on a milk carton, combining for four catches and 44 yards.
The defense wilted in the second half to the Rams
Thank goodness Jared Goff and co. were finding their sea legs in this one, or it could have been far worse than the 33 they hung on Oakland.
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) September 11, 2018
To their credit, the Raiders defenders hung in there till the dam finally broke. Gruden’s plan to rely on vets has its pros, but safety Reggie Nelson was a complete con in this one.
Raiders safety Reggie Nelson played 100% defensive snaps and recorded a 48.3 overall grade, ranking 72nd of 80 qualifying safeties, per @PFF. Nelson's 29.3 run defense grade was the lowest for any safety in the NFL Week 1.
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) September 11, 2018
And because of the sluggish offense, the defense had to be on the field much more, particularly in the second half. And wouldn’t you know it? They just couldn’t get any pressure on the quarterback.
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) September 11, 2018
Is Jon Gruden already on the hot seat?
TFW you realize that Khalil Mack has:
-more touchdowns than Derek Carr
-more INT return yards than Amari Cooper has rec yards
-more takeaways than the entire Raiders defense pic.twitter.com/xbYvXrhe9I
— The Rush (@therushyahoo) September 12, 2018
Everything critics picked at during the offseason manifested itself in a slow lava-like burn over the course of 60 minutes in a 33-13 drubbing: Gruden’s moves for more veterans turned them into the oldest team in the league; the offense would be predictable and lack creativity; if money was the issue, Oakland should have kept Mack and dealt Carr.
And number 1? Oakland is just not that good.
it's pretty amazing that Jon Gruden managed to coach zero games before everybody realized he was a disaster
— Rodger Sherman (@rodger) September 10, 2018
If you’re looking for some glass half full stuff, I guess you could forget the second half?
#Raiders lead Rams 13-10 at half:
— Derek Carr 20/24 for 199, 1 INT
— Jared Cook 6 catches 113 yards
— OAK outgaining LAR 254-98
— OAK 10 penalties for 145 yards
— Creative offense for Oakland
— Competent bend l/no break defense
— John Dickinson (@JDJohnDickinson) September 11, 2018
They have time, and things can turn around in the NFL just that quick. But for Oakland, it’s almost essential things get good next week against the Broncos.
There’s no telling how restless the masses will get otherwise. And remember, this is just Week 2 of what is supposed to be 10 years of Gruden.
Is Oakland the best of the Super Bowl 53 long shots?
The bottom of that Super Bowl odds board is a who’s who of teams you shouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole. Buffalo (+25000), Arizona (+15000), New York Jets, Indy, Miami (all +10000), Detroit and Oakland (both +8000) are where they should be.
You work hard for your money, so I’d advise you not to burn it here.
Now, if you had to place a wager with extreme value? Sitting just above this pack at +7500 are the Cleveland Browns, who showed they are far above listless in terms of effort and have the best collection of talent in this bracket.
I’d say the Browns and the upstart Jets are the picks.