Sharps Loving Chiefs & Cardinals; Square Money Firmly on Jaguars & Lions
- The first NFL Sunday is upon us, as 13 games are scheduled for September 8
- We have two two sharp vs square matchups going on in Week 1
- See which games the sharp money is going against the rest of the public
It is a beautiful day. We are about to be treated to 13 football games as Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season continues. Less than two hours before kickoff of the 1pm ET games now, a lot of bettors have already locked in their picks for the week.
But if you’re one of the people who likes to wait until the last minute, or haven’t already bet these two games, you may want to consider these two sharp vs square matchups we have going.
What do I mean by this, you ask? A sharp vs square matchup is when the majority of the total money wagered on the game is all on one side, but the vast majority of the sharp money wagered is on the other side.
The two matchups where we’re seeing this trend are: Kansas City vs Jacksonville and Detroit vs Arizona.
Chiefs vs Jaguars ATS Money Breakdown
| Team | Spread | % of Total Money Wagered | % of Sharp Money Wagered | % of Total Bet Count | % of Sharp Bet Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3 (-128) | 77% | 17% | 64% | 31% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +3 (+108) | 23% | 83% | 36% | 69% |
*All figures taken September 8
2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes leads his Kansas City Chiefs into Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars, who will start a season with a quarterback not named Blake Bortles under center for the first time since 2013.
The public is clearly remembering what they saw from the Chiefs last season, when Mahomes paced the NFL with 50 touchdown passes and their offense led the league in both points and yards.
“We’re going to be really special.”
Patrick Mahomes has high hopes for the #Chiefs offense in 2018. We discussed that, plus how his first camp as the starter, how he responds to mistakes and more on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/KBsWcHxNHs
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) August 1, 2018
However, the sharps are remembering the 2018 Week 5 matchup between these two teams, where Mahomes posted his worst passer rating of the season. It was the only game of the season where the Chiefs pivot did not throw a single touchdown pass, and he added two interceptions.
While Mahomes wasn’t spectacular, Blake Bortles was dreadful. He threw four interceptions and added a fumble lost, as well.
Add in former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles, and the game being in Jacksonville this time, the sharps have pounded the home dog here.
Lions vs Cardinals ATS Money Breakdown
| Team | Spread | % of Total Money Wagered |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | -3 (-105) | 64% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +3 (-115) | 36% |
Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray debuts for the Cardinals as they host the Detroit Lions in Week 1. The public is heavily in support of the road team here.
While 64% doesn’t seem like that big of a number, books report that of all the money bet on Arizona, 80% is coming from their sharp bettors. Also, 72% of the bets on the Cardinals are coming from their well respected players.
6-for-7
44 yards
92.9 QBR@K1 was strong in his first NFL action. pic.twitter.com/Uv1eawVS65— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) August 9, 2019
The public obviously remembers Arizona’s struggles in the preseason, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Their first-team offense failed to score a single touchdown in the preseason; they couldn’t protect Murray against a rather subpar Raiders front; and Murray didn’t even play in their final game against Denver.
But the sharps must be buying into what first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury is selling when he says they didn’t show their real offense all preseason, and that they’re ready to “cut it loose” on Sunday.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
