Steelers’ Odds to Win AFC North Listed at +600; Is There Any Value?
- The Pittsburgh Steelers earned their first win of the season on Monday, beating the Cincinnati Bengals 27-3.
- Quarterback Mason Rudolph is still having issues with downfield passing
- Two running backs led the Steelers in receptions on Monday, indicating the Rudolph is settling for his checkdowns
The Pittsburgh Steelers got a big win on Monday Night Football as they stomped the Cincinnati Bengals 27-3. Although it was the Steelers first win of the season, it actually puts them just one game out of first place in the AFC North.
Is there any value here betting their chance to win the AFC North in the NFL divisional odds or did they just look good because of the opponent?
Odds to Win AFC North
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | -125 |
| Cleveland Browns | +150 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +600 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +5000 |
*Odd as of 10/01/19.
Steelers Embarrass Bengals
Although Monday’s win was important for the Steelers, it really feels like most of it was about how bad the Bengals were.
The Steelers entered the game with just six sacks on the season (through three weeks) but had eight on Andy Dalton. Pittsburgh also hardly threw a pass down the field, yet the Bengals defense couldn’t stop them.
Pittsburgh ran a very conservative offense with dump-offs and handoffs. James Conner was the team’s leading receiver with eight catches for 83 yards while Jaylen Samuels also added another eight catches. The actual wide receivers on the team had just nine catches for 92 yards.
This type of effort might work at home against one of the worst teams in the NFL but it’s unlikely to work against the better squads in the league.
Is Mason Rudolph Going to Improve?
There’s no question that the Steelers have a playoff-caliber defense, but can second-year quarterback Mason Rudolph improve? He turned into a Checkdown Charlie on Monday Night Football and it worked, but if there’s no threat down the field, the Steelers offense is going to struggle.
In Weeks 1-3, James Conner averaged just 2.9 yards per carry and he’s going to face loaded boxes going forward. The Steelers running game is still ranked 31st even after a solid game on Monday.
Rudolph has to start throwing the ball down field and hitting some throws. However, the fact that the coaching staff doesn’t trust him is a sign.
Don’t Bet The Steelers to Win The North
After one month of NFL action, we are starting to get a clear view of the contenders in the AFC North. The Browns actually look like the best team but they have some coaching concerns and some weakness along the offensive line. As for the Ravens, their offense looks good but the defense is a big concern.
With the Steelers, we know that they probably have the best defense in the division but they clearly have a weakened offense sans Roethlisberger. I have more faith in the Browns sorting out their offensive line woes or the Ravens correcting their defensive flaws than the Steelers getting more out of Rudolph.
We’ve now seen Rudolph for two starts and he has just 403 yards in those games. We’ve already seen this defense get exposed when the offense can’t carry it’s weight and that’s likely what we’ll see in coming weeks. That being the case, I’ll pass on betting the Steelers to win the AFC North.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
