Steelers’ Odds to Win Division, Super Bowl After Metcalf Trade

• DK Metcalf’s arrival in Pittsburgh has shifted the Steelers’ Divisional and Super Bowl Odds
• The Steelers haven’t won the AFC North since 2020
• Keep reading for Pittsburgh’s updated Divisional and Super odds following the Metcalf trade

DK Metcalf is now a very rich man. Shortly after being acquired by the Pittsburgh Steelers late on Sunday night, Metcalf was rewarded with a five-year, $132 million deal. The move gives the Steelers two big name wide receivers, but online sportsbooks aren’t as impressed as you might think. Pittsburgh didn’t see major movement in the NFL futures market, most likely due to their uncertainty at QB.

2025 AFC North Odds

After the Metcalf trade, the Steelers remain the AFC North’s third choice in the NFL Divisional odds. Their price was shortened from +700 to +600, but that’s still three times as long as the Cincinnati Bengals. It’s even further behind the arch rival Baltimore Ravens, who ousted Pittsburgh last season on Wild Card Weekend.

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Why the Metcalf Move Isn’t Moving the Needle

Metcalf and George Pickens should form a dynamic one-two punch, providing the Steelers figure out their quarterback situation. As it stands, Skylar Thompson is the only QB on the roster. Justin Fields left for the New York Jets, and the team doesn’t seem interested in running back the Russell Wilson experiment.

The most coveted free agent quarterback on the market was Sam Darnold, but he just signed with Metcalf’s former team in Seattle. That leaves Aaron Rodgers as the Steelers most likely choice, which is underwhelming to say the least. Rodgers is entering his age 42 season, and hasn’t played elite football in four years.

Another reason to be bearish on the Metcalf trade is Pittsburgh’s offensive system. Arthur Smith is calling the shots, and he wants to establish the run at all costs. Metcalf’s arrival likely won’t change that, as Smith marginalized top-10 picks Drake London and Kyle Pitts in Atlanta.

We can expect the Steelers to be competitive, simply because of their coach. Mike Tomlin is allergic to losing seasons, but that doesn’t make Pittsburgh a threat to usurp the Ravens. The Steelers haven’t won the AFC North since 2020, when Ben Roethlisberger was still under center.

If you need another reason to avoid betting Pittsburgh to win the division, just take a look at the other AFC North QB’s. Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson leads a Ravens team that is a perennial championship contender, while Joe Burrow topped the league in passing yards and touchdowns last season.

Super Bowl 60 Odds

Speaking of being a championship contender, the Steelers remain well behind the NFL’s elite teams in the Super Bowl 60 odds. Pittsburgh’s price was shortened from +5500 to +4000 at DraftKings after the Metcalf news, but that still puts them 15th on the board.

Metcalf is coming off a down season, where he produced a career-low 5 TD. He’s failed to reach 67 catches in back-to-back campaigns, despite having reliable quarterback play from Geno Smith.

If you want to be bullish on the Steelers, take comfort in the fact that they recognized the need for change. They’ve been good enough to make the playoffs for the last decade, but not good enough to do any damage.

Pittsburgh has zero playoff wins since star edge rusher T.J. Watt entered the league. Watt is now 31, while their other defensive standout Cam Heyward will be 36 soon. The core isn’t getting any younger, so it’s time to make a push, or tear it down.

If I’m unwilling to bet them in divisional futures however, there’s no way I’m betting them to win it all. The uncertainty at QB is a huge red flag, regardless of who’s catching passes. Until an elite quarterback comes to town, and spoiler alert, there aren’t any available, Metcalf’s presence isn’t changing Pittsburgh’s recent fortunes.