Super Bowl 52 Fantasy Football Stat Predictions
- Should you splurge for Tom Brady in DFS?
- How will Patriot running backs perform against the best rush defense in the NFL?
- Can Patrick Robinson shut down Danny Amendola?
For the 13th time in Super Bowl history, and fourth time in the last five years, the top seeds from each conference will square off for the right to ink their name in NFL history. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have been here many times before – seven for Brady and nine for the franchise, to be exact. In five of Brady’s appearances, he wound up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy as the broadcast team scrambled for a shot of his supermodel wife, Gisele Bundchen (at least since 2009, anyways).
This time around, the 40-year-old will face a familiar foe: the Philadelphia Eagles. The two met previously in Super Bowl 39, where the Pats squeaked out a 24-21 victory, marking the franchise’s third Super Bowl title in four years. A victory in Super Bowl 52 would amount to another three-in-four-year streak.
But in order to add a sixth ring, Brady will likely need to put New England’s offense on his back, dealing with the league’s best rush defense.
Will the five-time Super Bowl champion put forth another magical performance? Will his counterpart, Nick Foles, light up the scoreboard like he did in the NFC Championship? How will Patriot running backs fare against the Eagles’ fierce defensive front? We’ll answer all these questions and more below.
Quarterback Stat Projections
- Nick Foles: 24/36 for 293 passing yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT
- Tom Brady: 33/49 for 353 passing yards, 4 TDs, and 1 fumble
Doug Pederson is going to attack the Patriots on the ground early and often, doing what he can to expose their lack of speed at the linebacker positions. The result will be a lot of run plays in the first half, with Foles mostly throwing off of play-action and in third-and-long situations. That will change come the second half, though, when Pederson will be forced to open up the offense due to the score.
Even if Tom Brady and company jump out to an early lead, Josh McDaniels isn’t likely to get conservative with the play calling.
The Eagles possess the league’s best run defense, so expect to see a lot of short passes and screens that serve as a “running game”.
Brady is going to feast on Philadelphia corner Jalen Mills, especially when the DB is covering Brandin Cooks. Mills received a 77.3 grade per PFF, and he’s not going to have much help with all the attention that Rob Gronkowski will attract over the middle of the field.
Paying the extra money for Brady in DFS is the right move.
If you’re looking to bet Super Bowl 52 player props, here are a couple you can cash in on:
- Who will throw more TD passes in the game: Tom Brady -1/2 (-150)
- Tom Brady passing yards (285.5): OVER (-130)
Running Back Stat Projections
Eagles Running Backs
- Jay Ajayi: 19 carries for 93 yards; 3 targets, 2 receptions for 35 yards, 1 TD (receiving)
- LeGarrette Blount: 12 carries for 41 yards, 1 TD
- Corey Clement: 2 carries for 13 yards; 8 targets, 6 receptions for 58 yards
Jay Ajayi has become the featured back in Philadelphia, averaging 16.5 carries per game in the playoffs. While I don’t expect that to change, keep in mind LeGarrette Blount is playing against his former team here. The Eagles will give Blount plenty of opportunities in short-yardage situations and he’ll remain the goal-line back, too.
One of the breakout candidates of Super Bowl 52 is Corey Clement. The Patriots allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs in the regular season, and Clement possesses the speed to expose whichever group of linebackers Bill Belichick has on the field.
Doug Pederson should try to use Clement much like Andy Reid used Kareem Hunt in Week 1 against the Pats.
Don’t be surprised if the 23-year-old surpasses the projection above this Sunday.
For a couple RB-specific props to bet on, see the 10 Best Props to Bet for Super Bowl 52.
Patriots Running Backs
- Dion Lewis: 11 carries for 31 yards; 9 targets, 8 receptions for 71 yards
- James White: 2 carries for 7 yards; 9 targets, 6 receptions for 53 yards, 1 TD
- Rex Burkhead: 1 carry for 3 yards; 1 target, 1 reception for 4 yards
New England’s offensive line is going to have a very tough time getting any push against an Eagle defensive line anchored by Fletcher Cox. Josh McDaniels is not the type of play-caller who feels he needs to establish a running game or overpower a defense in any way. The Patriots’ offensive coordinator is just as happy finessing his way to 30-plus points. This is what it’s going to take to beat Philadelphia’s fourth-ranked scoring defense.
The result will be minimal carries for Patriot running backs, but they will see their regular workload in the passing game, if not more.
Wide Receiver Stat Projections
Eagles Wide Receivers
- Alshon Jeffery: 4 targets, 3 receptions for 18 yards
- Nelson Agholor: 8 targets, 6 receptions for 96 yards; 2-pt conversion (rushing)
- Torrey Smith: 5 targets, 3 receptions for 38 yards
Alshon Jeffery is likely to see a lot of Stephon Gilmore (10th-ranked corner per PFF) in Super Bowl 52. Don’t expect Doug Pederson or Nick Foles to want to target that matchup often. The best bet for a big game is Nelson Agholor, who will mostly work against Eric Rowe (106th-ranked corner per PFF) in the slot.
Once Pederson establishes his running backs as receiving threats, the middle of the field will open up for Agholor to go to work.
Patriots Wide Receivers
- Brandin Cooks: 8 targets, 5 receptions for 98 yards, 1 TD
- Danny Amendola: 8 targets, 6 receptions for 51 yards, 1 TD
- Chris Hogan: 4 targets, 2 receptions for 18 yards
Danny Amendola has 26 receptions for 274 yards and three TDs in the Patriots’ last three playoff games, including Super Bowl 51. But the 32-year-old will draw Patrick Robinson, the 4th-ranked corner per PFF. Robinson won’t completely remove Amendola from the game, but he will limit the damage and prevent any big plays.
The speed of Brandin Cooks will be the Patriots’ best advantage in the passing game.
Look for Brady to take some deep shots to Cooks when his O-line gives him time. Expect Cooks to also be used in the screen game to get the Eagles’ big linemen chasing from sideline to sideline.
Some sharp Super Bowl 52 wide receiver props include:
- Brandin Cooks receiving yards (67.5): OVER
- 1st half receiving yards by Alshon Jeffery (24.5): UNDER
Tight End Stat Projections
Eagles Tight Ends
- Zach Ertz: 6 targets, 3 receptions for 39 yards, 1 TD
- Trey Burton: 2 targets, 1 reception for 9 yards
Bill Belichick always schemes to remove the opposing team’s best player. In this circumstance, that will be Zach Ertz. The tight end led Philadelphia in receptions and receiving yards in 2017, due to his ability to create easy, safe throws, particularly in the red zone. Belichick will do his best to limit those easy throws, but he won’t be able to stop him entirely.
Patriots Tight Ends
- Rob Gronkowski: 7 targets, 5 receptions for 58 yards, 1 TD
Just like his previous two Super Bowls – 8 receptions for 94 yards combined – this is not going to be a big Gronk-game. Jim Schwartz is not going to allow the 28-year-old to take this game over, ensuring Gronk has difficulties releasing from the LOS and always has multiple defenders in his area. Schwartz won’t be able to stop him from catching a TD in the red zone, though.
Kicker Stat Projections
- Jake Elliott: 2/2 XPs, 1/2 FGs (long of 47)
- Stephen Gostkowski: 4/4 XPs, 3/3 FGs (long of 50)
Defense/Special Teams Stat Projections
- Eagles: 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 37 points allowed
- Patriots: 3 sacks, 1 interception, 25 points allowed
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
