Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans Picks & Closing Odds

• The Houston Texans are 2.5-point favorites when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on MNF
• The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last three Monday night games
• Keep reading for my Buccaneers vs Texans picks and predictions, plus closing odds

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Two teams that expect to be battling for top spot in their respective NFL Divisional odds collide on Monday Night Football, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0, 1-0-0 ATS) visit the Houston Texans (0-1, 0-1-0 ATS).

Despite failing to find the endzone in their season opener against the Rams, Houston finds itself as the betting favorite in the NFL odds, and they’re pretty uniform across the board.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7pm ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Buccaneers vs Texans Closing Odds

There’s little variation here, with the Bucs closing as 2.5-point road underdogs, with the best odds at -105 over at DraftKings. I’m not exactly sure what the books saw in Houston to expand the line, which was at -1.5 a week ago. The most reasonable juice to buy the Texans was -112 at FanDuel.

If you like Tampa to pull off the upset, bet365 has them at +125, the longest of any of the major books, while FanDuel has Houston with the best favorite odds at -138. The total is uniform across the board at 42.5 points with -110 odds.

Odds as of 5:45 pm ET, Sept. 15. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on MNF.

SIX AND SEVEN GO HEAD-TO-HEAD ON MNF 🔥

Watch Buccaneers-Texans at 7 PM ET on ABC, ESPN and the ESPN App https://t.co/sntNPPpffd pic.twitter.com/bJSVQG5lkG

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 15, 2025

According to the NFL public betting percentages, the public is anticipating a slugfest, with 92% of the bets taking the Under, with a hefty 84.5% of the money also headed in that direction.

TB vs HOU Betting Trends

Perhaps the biggest betting trend is Houston leading the all-time head-to-head series, taking five wins in six games. Houston has reeled off five straight, but keep in mind that just one of the games has been played in the 2020s.

Tampa Bay is 11-2 against the spread as a road underdog since 2023 and run a 14-4 ATS in road games overall in that stretch.

For the Texans, they’re a rough 0-5 ATS in September since 2024; however, they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in games where they have had more than six rest days off between games.

Buccaneers vs Texans Picks & Prediction

• Buccaneers +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

It might not have been the best performance by Tampa Bay in their 23-20 win over the Falcons in Week 1, but it’s starting to look a little better after watching Atlanta shut down a good Vikings team on Sunday night in Week 2.

Still, despite being held to only 167 yards passing, Baker Mayfield still made enough plays to pull out the victory, throwing three TD passes in the win.

The emergence of rookie Emeka Egbuka (4 rec, 67 yards, 2 TD) will punish teams for putting their primary cover man on veteran Mike Evans, and lets Chris Godwin works his way back from injury stress-free.

Perhaps the best part of Tampa’s game was its defense, which limited the Falcons’ rush attack to just 69 yards on 28 totes, and a single touchdown.

Houston was just marginally more successful in its run game in their loss to LA, racking up just 114 yards on 27 carries. The only problem was CJ Stroud couldn’t pass his way out of those issues, finishing with just 188 yards passing an interception, as the Texans failed to score a TD.

Stroud was sacked three times as well, and found himself under siege on 41% of his dropbacks. Tampa won’t be any different: they pressured Michael Penix Jr on 43% of his dropbacks in Week 1. But can Stroud respond like the second-year pro? Penix Jr went 27-for-42 for 298 yards and a touchdown.

The numbers do work in his favor in that respect, as Stroud is 9-2 straight up as a home favorite.

Houston’s defense did limit the Rams to just 72 yards rushing, but the secondary got shredded, with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combining for 14 catches and 181 yards.

There is some risk here, as the Bucs will be without star left tackle Tristan Wirfs, which could be a chance for Danielle Hunter to feast. The Texans did also sack Matt Stafford three times.

Still, in a battle of teams on the fringe of the Top 10 in the Super Bowl 60 odds, Mayfield and company have can grind out points and possessions better than Houston can right now.

Looking for more Buccaneers vs Texans picks? Check out:

• Buccaneers vs Texans Player Props to Bet
• Tampa Bay vs Houston Same-Game Parlay