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Texans vs Chiefs Props: Mahomes Will Be Money

Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has thrown three or more touchdown passes in 16 of his 33 career NFL starts. Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Wiki Commons).
  • The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs clash in the AFC Divisional Playoffs on Sunday (Jan. 12, 3:05pm ET)
  • Our Wild Card props were 1-3 last week (-2.67 units)
  • Patrick Mahomes should feast on Houston’s 23rd ranked coverage unit

The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs square off in the Divisional round in the highest totalled game this weekend. The 51-point over/under is 4.5 points higher than any other game on the slate, and should produce plenty of big performances from both team’s signature stars. Patrick Mahomes in particular is in line for a big day, and online sportsbooks are offering +100 odds for him to eclipse 2.5 touchdown passes.

Prop #1: Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 2.5 Passing TDs

Passing TDs Odds
Over 2.5 +100
Under 2.5 -120

All odds taken Jan. 10th

Mahomes’ 2019 campaign paled in comparison to his MVP run in 2018, but let’s not forget he played hurt for most of this past season. Now with knee, ankle and hand injuries behind him, a healthy Mahomes, fresh off a bye, gets a dream matchup against the Texans. Houston’s secondary ranked 23rd in Pro Football Focus’ coverage metrics this season, and surrendered the fifth-most passing yards and the sixth most passing touchdowns to enemy quarterbacks.

Mahomes’ supporting cast is fully healthy and they have more than enough speed to take advantage of a Texans’ team that is prone to giving up big plays. Houston allowed 58 completions of 20+ yards this season and will be hard pressed to slow down burners like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman.

Mahomes’ touchdown numbers over the past five games don’t inspire a ton of confidence, but this is a guy with 16 games of three or more passing touchdowns in 33 career NFL starts.

Patrick Mahomes Last Five Starts

Week Opponent Pass Yds Pass TDs
13 OAK 175 1
14 NE 283 1
15 DEN 340 2
16 CHI 251 2
17 LAC 174 1

Earlier this season, he tossed three scores versus this same Texans’ defense in a game Houston controlled and KC was severely shorthanded in. The Chiefs are lofty 9.5-point favorites Sunday at Arrowhead, and you can project them to impose their will on this mediocre Texans team. Expect the Chiefs to score on the strength of Mahomes’ arm early and often.

Pick: Mahomes Over 2.5 touchdown passes (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit

Prop #2: Damien Williams Over/Under 23.5 Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Odds
Over 23.5 -113
Under 23.5 -113

What was once a crowded backfield in Kansas City now belongs primarily to Damien Williams. Spencer Ware and Darrel Williams are on IR, LeSean McCoy is washed up and the Chiefs don’t trust Darwin Thompson. The lead back in KC’s offense is an incredibly valuable role, and online sportbooks are sleeping on Damien Williams’ receiving upside this week.

In Week 17, he played 71% of the Chiefs snaps, and in addition to rushing for 124 yards, he caught four of his seven targets for 30 yards. He has at least 27 receiving yards in three of his past four games, and during last year’s playoffs he excelled as a pass catcher out of the backfield, racking up 10 receptions for 91 yards.

Houston has been bleeding production to pass catching running backs this season and were lit up by Devin Singletary for six catches and 76 yards in the Wild Card Round. They allowed an average of 55.7 receiving yards to running backs this season and you can expect the Chiefs to rip off big plays on swing passes and screens to Williams on Sunday.

Pick: Williams Over 23.5 receiving yards (-113)

Risk: 2 units to win 1.76 units

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