- NFL Week 11 starts on Thursday with the Packers vs Seahawks on TNF.
- If the coaches play it smart, this will be a run-heavy game on both sides.
- What does that mean for the best prop bets on Thursday Night Football?
Week 11 starts on Thursday with the Green Bay Packers (4-4-1, 0-4 away) visiting the Seattle Seahawks (4-5, 1-2 home) at CenturyLink Field (8:20 PM ET, Nov. 15). For the moneyline, spread, total, and score prediction, check out the Packers vs Seahawks game preview. For an analysis of the game within the game — or, in other words, the best prop bets for Thursday Night Football — stay right where you are.
Two of our three plays cashed in Week 10. The Steelers and Panthers easily combined for more than 5.5 touchdowns, and the first score came less than 5.5 minutes into the game. Unfortunately, there was no 2-point conversion, so we ended up +$91.67 for the week. Adding that to the whopping $3.13 profit carried over from Week 9, the account is now at +$94.80 for the season.
If we’re being a little more glass-half-full, we are up $344.10 over the last four weeks. Hopefully that trend continues with these plays.
Prop #1: No Turnovers
|What will the first turnover of the game be?||Odds|
This is a big swing on a longshot, but there’s method to my madness. Aaron Rodgers has only thrown one INT all year. Russell Wilson has thrown a respectable five this season, just two in his last seven games, and only has 61 in 105 career games. These QBs protect the ball well.
Most career TD passes among QB’s with < 89 career INT’s:
1) Aaron Rodgers: 366
*gap the size of the grand canyon*
2) Russell Wilson: 202
3) Andrew Luck: 167
4) Neil O’Donnell: 129
5) Kirk Cousins: 117
— Barry McCockiner (@SportsTalkJo3y) November 12, 2018
Equally important, neither secondary is filled with ballhawks. The Packers only have six INTs as a team. The Seahawk defense has 10, but three of those belong to Earl Thomas. He won’t be a problem today.
Seattle is midpack in forced fumbles with eight (T14th), while Green Bay has only forced five (T25th).
There’s a good chance this is a run-heavy game-script on both sides of the ball. That might sound counterintuitive in a game with Aaron Rodgers, but Seattle’s defense is 20th in DVOA against the run and 6th against the pass. That lessens the chance for turnovers, especially with Ty Montgomery no longer in the Packer backfield.
Prop #2: No D/ST Touchdowns
|Will either D/ST score a TD?||Odds|
If we’re predicting a game without turnovers, it’s pretty safe to assume there won’t be a D/ST score either. Neither team has scored or surrendered a return TD this season.
In all of 2017, the Seahawks scored one return TD (by Tyler Lockett on a kickoff versus Arizona) and didn’t give up any. The Packers pitched shutouts on both sides.
Prop #3: Under 2.5 Sacks by the Packers
|Over/Under Packers sacks?||Odds|
The Packers pass rush has been shockingly good, currently tied for the league lead with 31 sacks. That’s boosted by a couple big recent performances; they piled up six sacks against Miami last week and had five against the Rams three weeks ago.
The Green Bay Packers LEAD the NFL in sacks with 31?
— IKE Packers (@IKE_Packers) November 14, 2018
But Brock Osweiler threw 37 passes for Miami and Jared Goff had 36 attempts for the Rams.
Russell Wilson has only attempted 25.2 passes per game over the last six. This is going to be another run-heavy game for Seattle, as previously mentioned.
Also, Green Bay is only averaging 2.5 sacks per game in four road games. The Seattle offensive line is much improved from last year. A lot of the sacks against Seattle (29 in total, T7th-worst) have been Wilson’s fault.
But he’s been better at home in terms of getting rid of the ball. In three home games, the team has only given up eight total sacks. That’s a 2.66/game average, versus 3.5/game on the road. There’s some decent value on the UNDER. At +130, the implied probability is only 43.5%.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.