Best Thursday Night Football Props for Week 10 Panthers vs Steelers
- NFL Week 10 kicks off with the Panthers vs Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
- Both offenses are clicking and points should be plentiful.
- What does the mean for the best TNF prop bets this week?
Week 10 starts on Thursday with the Carolina Panthers (5-2) visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-1) at Heinz Field (8:20 PM ET, Nov. 8). For the moneyline, spread, total, and score prediction, check out our Panthers vs Steelers game preview. As usual, this space is here to advise on the best props to bet on TNF.
Before getting into this week’s best prop bets, a little record keeping: I hit on two of three prop bets last week, getting No DST Touchdowns (-240) and Raiders Under 2.5 Sacks (-140), while whiffing on the Raiders to Score the Longest TD (+140).
That resulted in a modest $12.43 profit (based on $100 wagers) and puts me back in black for the year, at a whopping +$3.13! The last three weeks (+$252.43 ROI) show a nice trend, at least, a trend that will continue in Week 10 with …
Prop #1: Over 5.5 Touchdowns
| How many total touchdowns will the teams score? | Odds |
|---|---|
| OVER 5.5 | -150 |
| UNDER 5.5 | +130 |
The Steelers are averaging 3.6 touchdowns per game. The Panthers are averaging 3.4 touchdowns per game. That’s 7.0 touchdowns combined. That’s a lot more than 5.5.
Their defenses have been ok at keeping opponents out of the end zone, with both Pittsburgh and Carolina allowing an average of 2.75 TD/game, but even that puts you right at the 5.5 threshold, and these will be two of the best offenses either team has faced this season.
Cam Newton first 8 games
2015 – 19 TD, 11 turnovers
2018 – 19 TD, 4 turnoversHe won MVP in 2015.
— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) November 5, 2018
Another reason to like the over is that Heinz Field is a tough place to kick. Count on both coaching staffs being aggressive when they’re on the edge of field-goal range.
Obviously, this line is shaded toward the over (-150) because of what I outlined above. But -150 has an implied probability of just 60%. By my math, these teams score six touchdowns (or more) closer to 70% of the time. Give me the OVER.
Prop #2: First Score Will Come in Under 5.5 Minutes
| When will the first score occur? | Odds |
|---|---|
| OVER 5.5 MINUTES | -145 |
| UNDER 5.5 MINUTES | +125 |
Neither team has been dynamite on opening drives, and the UNDER would only have hit in six of the 16 games these teams have played this season.
However, 5/9 TNF games have seen a score in the first 5:30 this year. The way these two offenses have been humming lately, there’s a good chance that whichever team gets the ball first marches straight down the field and scores.
The high game total (52.5) supports that projection.
Prop #3: At Least One Successful 2-Point Conversion
| Will there be a successful 2-point conversion? | Odds |
|---|---|
| YES | +310 |
| NO | -370 |
The Steelers have three successful two-point conversions in eight games. In other words, they have scored a two-point conversion in 37.5% of their games. The Panthers have two so far (25%). So between them, they have five in 16 games, or 31.3%. The Steelers made it look real easy against the Bengals in Week 6.
Two point conversion good #HereWeGo #Steelers pic.twitter.com/4ArlGmTbNn
— Pittsburgh Bill ?? (@Pittsburgh_Bill) October 14, 2018
The +310 odds on the YES side have an implied probability of just 24.4%.
The high-scoring nature of this game and the poor kicking conditions at Heinz Field make YES the value play.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
