Tush Push Not Banned – Is Now the Time to Bet the Eagles, Hurts, Barkley?

• The Tush Push lives on after the proposal to ban the play didn’t receive enough votes
• Philadelphia runs the play at the league’s highest rate, making their offense a nightmare to face
• See below to find out if now is the time to bet the Eagles’ NFL Futures

Push on Eagles. The proposal to ban the tush push for the 2025 season failed to get enough votes to pass on Wednesday, meaning Jalen Hurts and company will deploy Philadelphia’s signature play for at least one more campaign.

Now that we know the Brotherly Shove will live on, it’s time to examine the Eagles’ in the NFL futures market. Obviously having access to the tush push elevates their ceiling, but online sportsbooks didn’t touch their championship odds.

Philadelphia Eagles 2025 NFL Futures

Philadelphia’s 2025 Super Bowl odds remained at +650 following Wednesday’s news, while their -135 NFL Division odds make them the second-biggest favorite in that market behind Baltimore in the AFC North. While their price didn’t move in those categories, the juice has shifted on their win total. Last week they were +100 to exceed 11.5 wins, and now those odds sit at -115.

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Hurts, Barkley TD Props Bounce All Over the Place on Wednesday

The betting lines that were impacted the most on Wednesday morning were the touchdown props for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who was expected to be negatively impacted by the expected ban, and running back Saquon Barkley, who was expected to benefit. Hurts’ TD prop plummeted when oddsmakers expected the ban to pass, while Saquon’s went up. But after the proposal failed, they met back in the middle. Here’s what a source at ESPN Bet had to say: “Prior to the vote on the Tush Push, Jalen Hurts’ rushing TD line had moved from an opening line of o/u 12.5 (opened April 15) to as low as 9.5 this morning, while Saquon Barkley’s opening line of 10.5 was up to 11.5 this week. Following the news that the vote to ban the tush push failed, both players are back to o/u 10.5 rushing TDs on ESPN BET.”

Should Philadelphia’s Futures Odds Have Moved More?

It’s a bit surprising that Eagles futures odds didn’t move more based on Wednesday’s news. The tush has been an unstoppable force when deployed with Hurts under center, boasting an 87% conversion rate.

Philly has run the Brotherly shove 122 times since 2022 in yard-to-go situations, converting 105 times with 30 touchdowns. Obviously the play is an integral part of the offense, but the mere threat of it alone allows them to be more aggressive.

The Eagles can afford to play short of the sticks on second and third downs if they want, knowing that if they can’t get across the line, they can pick up the remaining yardage on the next down. 

NFL 2024 Fourth-Down Conversion Rates

In third-and-short situations it allows them to open up the entire playbook, knowing they can fall back on the tush push if need be. That is a nightmare to defend, which explains why Philadelphia’s offense is so lethal when everyone is healthy.

One futures market involving Philadelphia that did see significant movement was Hurts’ NFL MVP odds. He was +2500 across most books to win the award before Wednesday, but has been shortened to +1700. No one benefits more from the tush push than Hurts, who’s scored 65 rushing touchdowns since 2020 in the regular season and playoffs.

Hurts finished second in MVP voting in 2023, but I don’t think he has the passing chops to compete with likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. That’s especially true for the upcoming season, given the gauntlet of a schedule the Eagles have to deal with

Eagles Futures Bets to Target

• Eagles Under 11.5 Wins (-115)

Philly is a pass in the Super Bowl and Divisional markets for me. There’s no value on them to repeat at +650, while I believe they are being overvalued in the NFC East. Washington is a team on the rise, and both the Giants and Cowboys will be tougher outs than in 2024.

One market worth targeting though, is under 11.5 wins. Per our NFL strength of schedule the Eagles have the sixth toughest slate of opponents in 2025.

After opening versus Dallas, Philadelphia will face four straight playoff teams including the Chiefs on the road in Week 2. In total, seven of their first nine contests are against 2024 postseason teams, including back-to-back primetime tilts versus the Packers and Lions in early November, one of which coming on a short week.

The end of the season doesn’t forecast to be any easier. Four of their final five games are versus top-11 Super Bowl contenders, including two games against the Commanders, and a late December date in Buffalo versus the Bills.

The Eagles will be the first team in NFL history to play seven road games against playoff teams from the previous season. They’ll face the NFC North and AFC West, two divisions that sent three teams to the postseason.

It’s not hard to find six spots where they can slip up on that schedule even if they remain relatively healthy. Tush push or not, it’s going to be a grind for them just to make the playoffs, which is common among Super Bowl winners.

The Chiefs getting back to the Super Bowl year after year in the Mahomes era is an outlier, just like it was for the Patriots in the Tom Brady era. 17 of the last 59 Super Bowl winners failed to qualify for the playoffs the following season, while another five lost in the Wild Card Round.