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Updated Odds to Win NFL OROY After Burrow Injury, Tua Benched – Herbert Given 90% Chance to Win Award

Joe Burrow looking to pass
A season-ending torn ACL/MCL suffered by Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) has elevated Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert to the prohibitive favorite's role in the NFL OROY race. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
  • Quarterback Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers is now the odds-on -900 favorite to win the NFL OROY
  • Previous second betting choice Joe Burrrow of the Cincinnati Bengals suffered a season-ending torn ACL on Sunday
  • Could Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Chase Claypool, or anyone else, offer value?

The 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race was seen as a two-player battle between a pair of quarterbacks – Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Now that Burrow has suffered a season-ending torn ACL/MCL, is the race over? The latest NFL OROY odds show Herbert moving into the prohibitive favorite’s role at -900.

2020 NFL OROY Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Justin Herbert (Chargers) -900
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) +900
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) +1000
Chase Clapyool (Steelers) +1700
Cylde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) +3000

Odds as of Nov. 23rd at FanDuel

Burrow has slipped right off the board following his injury in Sunday’s loss to the Washington Football Team. However, another player is suddenly looming large as a contender.

Pittsburgh wide receiver Chase Claypool has scored a team-leading 10 touchdowns in 10 games for the unbeaten Steelers. His odds have shortened from +2067 to +1700

Oddsmakers were giving Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa an outside chance of playing himself into contention. Sunday saw that hope fading following his benching during Miami’s loss to the Denver Broncos. Tagovailoa’s betting line grew from +383 to +1000.

Burrow Takes A Hit

Back to pass, Burrow was sacked by a pair of Washington defenders and his knee buckled awkwardly. It was apparent immediately that he was seriously injured.

At a betting line of +165, he’d been running neck-and-neck with Herbert for NFL OROY honors. However, there’s no recent history of any player capturing the award while also missing a significant portion of the season through injury.

Burrow leads the NFL in pass completions (264) and attempts (404). Playing behind a porous Bengals offensive line, he’s also been sacked 32 times, third-most of any NFL QB.

Herbert Keeps On Rolling

Sunday saw Herbert delivering another sensational performance in a 34-28 victory over the 0-10 New York Jets. He threw for three TDs.

It was the seventh consecutive game he has thrown multiple touchdown passes. That establishes an NFL record for a rookie QB. He’s passed for 20 TDs against three interceptions over that span.

Herbert’s passer rating of 116.5 was his best since Week 4. He established a personal best with 37 completions and tied a career high with 49 pass attempts.

The Chargers QB leads all rookies in TD passes (22), passing yards (2,699), completion percentage (68.0) and passer rating (104.7).

All He Does Is Score

Pittsburgh’s Claypool found the end zone Sunday on the end of a 31-yard scoring pass from Ben Roethlisberger. The double threat has caught seven TD passes and run for three scores.

Claypool is the first rookie wide receiver in NFL history and the first NFL receiver in 60 years to collect 10 TDs through the first 10 games of the season. He’s second among all NFL receivers in TDs this season.

Claypool is one TD away from tying the Steelers club record for rookies. That fellow originally setting that mark was Franco Harris in 1972.

Were he to win, Claypool would be joining New Orleans Saints running back Rueben Mayes (1986) as the only Canadians to be named NFL OROY.

Tua Sits Down

A late starter to starting, Tagovailoa was already playing the catch-up game. That didn’t work for Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield in 2018. Despite a strong finish to the season, Mayfield couldn’t overtake season-long starter Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants.

Indications following the game from Dolphins head coach Brian Flores are that Tagovailoa remains his starter. No matter. The damage has been done. The rookie of the year doesn’t get benched.

Jefferson On Bubble

The NFL OROY has gone to an NFC player 13 years in a row. Holding out slim hope of continuing that streak is Minnesota Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson.

He’s on pace for 72 catches and 1,357 reception yards. That would surpass the first-year totals of Vikings WR Randy Moss (69, 1,313), the 1998 NFL OROY.

It’s Herbert’s To Win

All of these players are enjoying great seasons. However, Herbert is on pace to shatter just about every NFL rookie passing record.

Considering that eight QBs have won this award since 2004, that places him in rarified air.

Pick: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (-900).

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