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Updated Super Bowl 56 Odds After Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Apr 29, 2021 · 8:24 PM PDT

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers, 2021 NFL Draft
North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, right, holds a jersey with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being chosen by the San Francisco 49ers with the third pick in the first round of the NFL football draft Thursday April 29, 2021, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)
  • The first round of the 2021 NFL Draft was completed on Thursday night
  • Surprises from the 49ers and Bears among others led to changes in the Super Bowl 56 odds
  • See the updated odds for all 32 teams and find out who was helped themselves the msot

The 2021 NFL Draft was not short on drama, whether it was in the lead-up or once the names were called.

A bombshell surrounding Aaron Rodgers wanting out of Green Bay rocked the draft hours before kick-off. Then the 49ers selected Trey Lance third overall, a pick they kept close to the vest. And the Bears shook things up further when they traded up for Justin Fields.

With the dust settled on the first round, here are the updated Super Bowl 56 odds.

Super Bowl 56 Odds

Team Odds from DraftKings
Kansas City Chiefs +500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700
Baltimore Ravens +1300
Buffalo Bills +1400
LA Rams +1400
San Francisco 49ers +1400
Denver Broncos +1600
Cleveland Browns +1600
Green Bay Packers +1600
Indianapolis Colts +2500
Dallas Cowboys +2800
New England Patriots +2800
Miami Dolphins +2800
New Orleans Saints +2800
Seattle Seahawks +2800
Pittsburgh Steelers +3300
Tennessee Titans +3300
Arizona Cardinals +4000
Minnesota Vikings +4000
Los Angeles Chargers +4000
Chicago Bears +5000
Las Vegas Raiders +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Atlanta Falcons +6000
Carolina Panthers +6600
New York Giants +6600
Jacksonville Jaguars +7000
Philadelphia Eagles +7000
Cincinnati Bengals +10000
New York Jets +10000
Detroit Lions +15000
Houston Texans +15000

Odds as of April 29th

Without even making a selection the Green Bay Packers saw their Super Bowl odds drop from +1100 earlier in the week. That’s what happens when it’s revealed your star quarterback wants out. It also impacted the Broncos’ odds, who shot up from +6000.

But in terms of teams who made their picks on Thursday? The Bears saw a jump from +6000 to +4000 almost immediately after they selected Fields, then they settled at +5000. The 49ers also saw some fluctuation after selecting Lance and being a part of the Rodgers conversation.

Broncos Improving Odds Fueled by Rumors

Denver made the smart, safe pick at ninth overall when they landed Patrick Surtain II. But while George Paton may have ensured the legacy of dynamic secondary play continues at Mile High, Denver’s Super Bowl odds were improving for another reason.

Just as the draft began, the Broncos found themselves in the thick of the Aaron Rodgers rumors. In fact, various outlets were reporting things were anywhere from not happening to imminent.

There is an inherent risk when it comes to trusting these rumors. If a trade goes down, then this might be the best price bettors can grab the Broncos at for a while when it comes to the Super Bowl. But if it’s all just talk? Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock aren’t taking this team to the promised land.

When it comes to Denver, invest at your own risk.

All Eyes on Nagy and Fields in Chicago

When the Bears signed Andy Dalton earlier in the offseason, it was seen as a placeholder. All you had to do was look at the fact Chicago’s Super Bowl odds fell to +6000 when they signed Dalton instead of pulling the trigger on a Russell Wilson trade.

Matt Nagy inherited Mitch Trubisky when he took over the Chicago job. The Bears’ brass were famously high on Trubisky, and charged Nagy with elevating his game.

That experiment fell flat however, and three years later Nagy has the chance to get his guy. And that’s Justin Fields

Justin Fields College Career

Season Games Comp/Att Comp% Yards TD INT Rushing Yards Rushing TDs
2018 12 27/39 69.2% 328 4 0 266 4
2019 14 238/354 67.2% 3,273 41 3 484 10
2020 8 158/225 70.2% 2,100 22 6 383 5

It may seem a bit hyperbolic to say that Fields needs to come in and make an immediate impact. But that’s exactly what has to happen.

Nagy likely wouldn’t have pushed his chips into the middle if he thought Fields would have to sit behind Dalton for a year. Chicago’s defense has carried them to two playoff appearances in three seasons. They lost both of those games by a combined score of 37-24.

Fields should immediately satisfy Allen Robinson’s career-long search for a high-end QB. With a carousel of passers getting him the ball in 2021, Robinson still finished with the fifth-highest receiving grade (88.3) in the league according to PFF.

With David Montgomery in the backfield, Anthony Miller and Darnell Mooney to round out the receiver’s room, and a hopeful second year leap out of Cole Kmet, there’s a solid foundation in place for Fields.

Shanahan Gets His Man at 3rd Overall

The biggest mystery heading into the 2021 NFL Draft was who the San Francisco 49ers were trading up for.

With Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson both out of reach, Lance, Fields and Mac Jones all got plenty of love at third overall. But ultimately it was Lance who heard his name called.

Lance and North Dakota State obviously had one of the stranger college seasons thanks to the Coronavirus pandemic. But Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch and the 49ers think there’s plenty to work with there.

Trey Lance 2019 Season

Games Comp/Att Comp% Yards Yards/A TD INT Rushing Yards Rushing TDs
16 192/287 66.9% 2,786 9.7 28 0 1,100 14

Lance has the physical tools to succeed, but what San Fran is hoping will make this marriage work is Lance’s brain. He operates with an otherworldly football IQ.

There is still the question of what happens to Jimmy Garoppolo however. With the other big-name QB prospects, they were coming off of full or partial seasons. But Lance played one game in 2020, so it’s fair to question whether he’ll have the immediate impact one would expect with the third overall pick.

While San Fran could be back atop the odds battling it out  in a few seasons with Lance at the helm, they may not be a savvy Super Bowl 56 pick.

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