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NFL Upset Picks for the Divisional Round

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Nov 3, 2022 · 9:13 AM PDT

Lamar Jackson breaking loose
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) scrambles against the Tennessee Titans in the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game Sunday, Jan. 10, 2021, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)
  • Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get revenge after being swept by the New Orleans Saints this season?
  • Can the Baltimore Ravens keep rolling on the road against the Buffalo Bills?
  • Last weeks Wild Card picks went 1-1, winning 0.75 units and bringing our season total to +7.14 units

Super Wild Card Weekend lived up to the billing, as the NFL saw close finishes, upsets, and even an amazing Taylor Heinicke performance across a loaded six-game slate. We also made money! It almost makes the upcoming weekend seem underwhelming. Almost.

Now that we’re down to the elite eight and, there are some really tough calls in the NFL Divisional Round odds. But with only seven games left until football goes away for a long time, we’re not about to stay on the sidelines now.

Here’s the upsets to play this weekend.

NFL Divisional Round Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Moneyline Pick Units
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills BUF -2.5 +128 Ravens 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints NO -3 +145 Buccaneers 1.5

Odds taken Jan. 14 at DraftKings and FanDuel

Ravens to Bill’s Super Bowl Chances: Nevermore

Cleveland’s crazy win over Pittsburgh last weekend was a fun sight for nearly all football watchers, save for two groups. Obviously, Steelers fans are one. But Bills fans had to be pretty upset at the outcome too because it sent them the toughest possible matchup for the divisional round; the surging Baltimore Ravens.

As evidenced by the slim 2.5-point spread favoring Buffalo from these NHL betting odds, this is going to be a tight battle at Orchard Park.

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Lamar Jackson got that elusive first playoff win thanks to a great defensive effort, some nice coaching adjustments by Greg Roman at halftime, and most importantly, his freakish athletic ability.

The Bills are like most of the league’s elite teams: their only real weakness is run defense, but they usually score so much on offense it never matters. However, the Ravens will pose a real problem for Buffalo. The Bills had issues facing offenses with mobile quarterbacks this year, allowing 333 yards on the ground in two meetings with the Patriots. Their worst showing came against an option-heavy Arizona attack.

Buffalo did a great job containing the Ravens ground game in their 2019 meeting, holding them to under 3.6 yards per carry. Yet even though most of the players are the same, Baltimore’s run game has found new ways to innovate this season, finding a ton of success on counter read plays.

Offensively, Bills fans mouths’ are already watering at the idea of Josh Allen playing against the league’s most blitz-happy defense.

Allen also performed tops in the league against man, so the Ravens’ two favorite things to do could be exploited. However, Baltimore’s corners are pretty great too. With Cole Beasley still battling a knee injury, it’s not unreasonable to think that he, Stefon Diggs, and John Brown don’t win the war against Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Jimmy Smith.

Neither of these teams looks all that comfortable as the favorite. We know what happened last year when Baltimore was a one-seed, and a few key mistakes late nearly cost Buffalo last week. In what looks to be a toss up, I’m going to side with the road team playing free from pressure in this spot.

Bucs Win Battle of Olds

The Saints dismantled the Buccaneers in the regular season, winning both matchups by a combined score of 72-26, and yet Tampa Bay is getting a field goal when they visit New Orleans on Sunday.

I’ve heard a lot of people say it’s tough to beat a team three times in a season, and though the numbers don’t actually back that up: it’s gotta be very tough to beat Tom Brady thrice in a row. After all, the man is still kicking Father Time’s ass after 43 years.

Since the Week 9 meeting between these two, the Buccaneers offense ranks second in EPA to only Green Bay. They’re clicking at the right time and should have Ronald Jones back in the lineup.

Though Tampa Bay let Washington hang around last week, thanks to the aforementioned great Heinicke game, they did an excellent job blocking that dominant front four. A joint effort between Donovan Smith and Rob Gronkowski kept Chase Young away from Brady almost all night. When they couldn’t, the future first-ballot still showed excellent pocket presence.

The Saints pass rush should get Trey Hendrickson back this week to help them get after Brady. But with this Bucs offense finally clicking and the talent they have at receiver — Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Scotty Miller — Brady should be able to find someone downfield before that rush gets home.

Defensively, the Buccaneers have done a great job containing Alvin Kamara this year, holding him to 58 total yards per game. Now, Todd Bowles needs to find a few more wrinkles to throw at Drew Brees, rather than staying in zone and getting shredded.

Of concern for the Saints, the downturn Wil Lutz has taken the last few weeks. The normally automatic kicker has missed five of his last 10 field goal attempts. If this is a tight game as the line suggests, that could be the difference maker.

New Orleans has made a habit of losing weird and heartbreaking games in the playoffs since their Super Bowl 43 triumph. What would be more of a downer than seeing their soon-to-be-retired Hall of Fame QB lose his final game to an even older Hall of Fame QB with no plans of retiring?

Look for Tampa to move on and set up that long-awaited Brady vs Rodgers showdown.

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