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NFL Upset Picks for Wild Card Weekend

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Jan 8, 2021 · 4:42 PM PST

Chase Young
Washington Football Team's Chase Young plays during an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
  • Will the Washington Football Team be able to send Tampa Bay home early?
  • Can the Rams upset the Seahawks regardless of who’s at quarterback for LA?
  • Last week’s picks went 1-2, losing 0.6 units and bringing our final regular season total to +6.39

I’ll admit, I was one of the many folks skeptical about the NFL adding two more Wild Card spots this season.

Now that the dust of the 2020 season has settled, I have to concede, expansion was a great idea! Not only did it allow my perfectly mediocre Chicago Bears to sneak into the postseason, but just look at how awesome this NFL Wild Card Weekend slate is.

We have intriguing matchups all weekend, starting with the hottest team in football hosting their first playoff game in 25 years and ending with a COVID-rocked Cleveland team trying to make their long awaited return to the postseason a memorable one.

In between, there’s so much action that we decided to bring upset picks back for another week! (Which is nice, because ending the season losing money on Nate Sudfeld would’ve left a real bad taste in my mouth.)

Here’s the dogs I like to pull off a classic Wild Card Weekend upset.

NFL Wild Card Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Moneyline Pick Units
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Football Team TB -8 +310 Washington 1.5
Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks SEA -3.5 +150 Rams 1.5

Odds taken Jan. 8 from DraftKings and FanDuel

Brady Bows Out Early

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter their first playoff game in 13 years as eight-point favorites over Washington, and everyone is raring to fade the NFC East winner. But bettors beware below .500 playoff teams! The last two teams to make it with a losing record won their wildcard games against 11-5 opponents, with Seattle beating New Orleans in 2010 and the Panthers besting the Cardinals in 2014.

YouTube video

If you looked closely at those highlights, you might have noticed some familiar faces on the sidelines. Yes, this will be the third playoff meeting between Ron Rivera and Bruce Arians, with Rivera holding a 2-0 edge. But this time, Arians offense is being run by a future Hall of Famer with a 30-11 playoff record.

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offense really came on in the last month, putting up 148 points and nearly 1800 yards in their last four outings. But none of those efforts came against an even remotely okay defense.

The Football Team will be the first great defensive unit the Bucs have faced since a 27-24 loss to the Rams on Nov. 23. In fact, Tampa went 0-4 this season against defenses that finished top ten in DVOA. Washington ranks third.

The Bucs could be taking the field Saturday night without their leading receiver, after Mike Evans left last week’s game with a hyperextended knee. That would be a big blow for Tampa’s red zone offense, which ranks seventh in the league thanks to Evans nine TDs inside the 20.

Obviously, Tampa still has a ton of weapons on that offense. But the case to be made for Washington winning lies with how they handle Brady and company. On the other side of things, the Buccaneers are a great defense, albeit one that could be without Devin White. The Football Team’s offense with Alex Smith is about ball control and safe throws. Washington won’t light up the scoreboard, but they also shouldn’t give the game away to Tampa’s D.

If the Football Team is going to pull this one out, it’s going to be because of Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen. You may have only heard this a few thousand times before, but apparently the key to beating Brady is by those four gentleman constantly reintroducing themselves to the GOAT.

If there’s one rule I know about the NFL playoffs: it’s that fans rarely get the matchups they actually want. If all favorites win outright, then next week, the Buccaneers will travel to Green Bay where the GOAT will take on Aaron Rodgers. But that matchup is just too awesome to actually come true – and frankly, after this week, America doesn’t deserve it.

So get ready for someone to throw a wrench in those plans. Why not Washington?

Rams Take Rubber Match in Seattle

Seattle comes into the postseason 12-4, and winners of six of their last seven, so of course they’re 3.5-point favorites over a Rams team that might not have their starting quarterback. But I’d be wary of the favorite: the Seahawks are not playing inspiring football right now.

The “Let Russ Cook” movement slowed in the second half of the season, after he burnt dinner a few times with some wild interceptions.

As the offense’s scoring slowed, the Seahawks defense seemingly picked up, holding their last eight opponents to under 24 points. It’s a huge improvement from the worst-pass-defense-in-NFL-history trajectory that they were on, but I don’t know how much stock you can put into Seattle’s second half considering the caliber of offense they were playing.

Los Angeles would certainly fall into the category of “bad offense” the way they’ve been going over the last month, but I’m optimistic they can do enough to win what should be a low scoring affair here – if John Wolford is under center.

The AAF alum brought a different element to the Rams last week, making plays with his legs on a day where Cam Akers couldn’t get it going on the ground. He’ll pose a much different challenge for a Seahawks defense that was unafraid of Jared Goff’s taking off on bootlegs in their Week 16 win.

Throw in the fact that Cooper Kupp is returning while Jarran Reed and Shaquill Griffin are questionable, and there’s reasons to like the Rams getting to the 20 points needed to win. Any more than that would be overkill, based on how great LA’s defense has been.

The Seahawks have given up 11 sacks to LA in their first two meetings. Russell Wilson can do a lot of great things, but as we learned as this season has worn on, he is human. I don’t envy any human that has to try and score against the Rams this weekend.

Betting on Wolford, a guy making his first career playoff start in Seattle, would be throwing your money away in years past. But without fans at these games, I don’t think these playoffs are going to have quite the same electricity to them. Look for the road team to provide a little shock here.

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