3 Value Bets to Win NFL MVP After Mahomes Listed Out for Four Weeks

• Reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes is out for at least a month with a dislocated patella
• Last week, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson moved past Mahomes in the NFL MVP odds
• With Mahomes out, who are the value bets to win 2019 MVP?

Last week, for the first time in the NFL season, Patrick Mahomes surrendered his lead in the NFL MVP odds.

On Thursday, the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback hobbled off the field after suffering an ugly knee injury during KC’s 30-6 win over the Denver Broncos, likely giving up any hope of winning a second straight MVP award.

Mahomes is expected to miss a minimum of a month with a dislocated patella, throwing the NFL MVP chase wide open.

Now that Mahomes is out of the picture, who could win the award? Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson moved into the favorite’s role last week, with average odds of +200.

2019-20 NFL MVP Odds

*Odds taken on 10/18/19

Wilson leads the NFL in passer rating (124.7) and is tied for first in yards per completion (9.0). However, he’s just eighth in passing yardage (1,704), ninth in yards passing per game (284.0) and third in TD passes (14).

If it’s not Wilson, who are some of the MVP value bets worth considering?

MVP Curse Continues

You have to go back to 2008-09 and Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts to find a winner of consecutive NFL MVP awards.

Mahomes’ grip on a repeat performance was already slipping away. After passing for 10 TDs in his first three games, he’d thrown for four in the next three contests as the Chiefs went 1-2.

An average of the leading sportsbooks taken on October 2nd showed Mahomes as the odds-on favorite to win the NFL MVP at -120. But by October 16th, Mahomes slipped to +240. Wilson was the chalk at +200.

Russell Wilson’s helmet communication system went out during a third quarter drive, so he called his own plays and led the Seahawks to a TD ?? @DangeRussWilson pic.twitter.com/hBuT0qTm76

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) October 14, 2019

Even if he were to miss only a month, it’s doubtful Mahomes could do enough in the remaining games to get back into the race.

NFL MVP Favorites Dropping Like Flies

Players who figured to be NFL MVP contenders have been dropping like flies.

Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck shockingly retired late in the preseason. New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees, the NFL’s all-time passing leader, underwent thumb surgery following a Week 2 injury.

With a 117.6 passer rating vs the Browns, @DangeRussWilson has a 100+ passer rating in all 6 games this season

The only 2 players with more such games to start a season in the Super Bowl era were Tom Brady (8) in 2007 & Aaron Rodgers (12) in 2011

Both won NFL MVP that season

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 13, 2019

Even though their teams are playing well, neither three-time MVP Tom Brady of the New England Patriots, or Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, a two-time winner, are enjoying MVP-caliber seasons.

Watson Making His Case

The last time Houston celebrated an NFL MVP, it was Oilers running back Earl Campbell in 1979. However, don’t count out Texans QB Deshaun Watson when the MVP ballots are counted this season.

He beat Mahomes and the Chiefs in their first head-to-head meeting. The week prior, Watson passed for over 400 yards and five TDs.

If, as it should be, your NFL MVP criteria begins with “Where would his team be without him?”, Deshaun Watson is your winner.

Case. Closed. #Texans

— Marc Ryan (@MarcRyanOnAir) October 14, 2019

Watson is outside the top 10 in passing yardage, even though he’s up among the leaders in passer rating (107.9) and TD passes (12). He’s also run for five TDs. Can he survive to finish the season? Watson’s already been sacked 18 times, but not once in the last two weeks.

He’s good value if Houston’s offensive line problems are truly fixed.

Too Early For Jackson?

Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy at Louisville, yet skeptics doubted whether he’d made the grade as an NFL QB.

He’s answered by leading the Baltimore Ravens to the NFL’s best offense (450.7 yards per game). Jackson can do it through the air (1,507 yards, 11 TDs), or on the ground (480 yards, two TDs).

"I'm trying to get that Super Bowl, no individual award.

I'm just trying to win."@Lj_era8 asked about MVP talk: pic.twitter.com/ID3hlxv24y

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 16, 2019

However, he literally dropped the ball in both of his big-stage games this season. Jackson lost to Mahomes and the Chiefs and was held to one TD pass. He was picked off twice in a 40-25 loss to Cleveland. Digging deeper into his gaudy stats shows that he’s feasted on terrible defenses (Miami, Arizona, Cincinnati) while struggling against respectable units.

He’ll get another chance to make his MVP case this week against Wilson and the Seahawks.

Could McCaffrey Run Off With MVP?

Running backs just don’t win the NFL MVP anymore. Adrian Peterson (2012) is the only one to do so since 2007.

Still, when you look at what Carolina Panthers all-purpose runner McCaffrey is doing, how can you not consider him?

Fans in London started chanting MVP as @run__cmc left the stadium ? pic.twitter.com/kNuFbCzJBJ

— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) October 13, 2019

He leads the NFL in rushing with 618 yards. He’s caught 35 passes for 308 yards and two TDs. And he’s doing all this for the 4-2 Panthers without injured #1 QB Cam Newton to keep defenses honest.

Chris Johnson of the 2009 Tennessee Titans (2,509) holds the NFL single-season record for yards from scrimmage. McCaffrey is on pace for 2,461, which would leave him #2 all-time.

McCaffrey is in the NFL MVP conversation, but he should be the conversation starter.

Pick: Christian McCaffrey (+900).