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Washington Commanders NFC East Odds Unchanged After Trading for Colts’ QB Carson Wentz

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2022 · 2:18 PM PST

Carson Wentz throws a pass
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2) throws a pass during warm-ups before of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Colts 26-11. (AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have traded QB Carson Wentz to the Washington Commanders
  • Does this make the Commanders a contender in the NFC East?
  • See the odds for both teams in their respective divisions after this trade below

A day after the Broncos stunned the NFL by acquiring Russell Wilson, the QB musical chairs game continued. Washington has traded for Carson Wentz, giving the former number two pick his third team in as many years.

The Commanders will send a pair of third round draft picks back to the Colts in exchange for Wentz, while the teams will also swap 2022 second round picks. On paper it seems like a big move for Washington, but the trade didn’t have the kind of impact you might expect in the futures market.

NFC East Odds

Team Odds
Dallas Cowboys -145
Philadelphia Eagles +340
Washington Commanders +500
New York Giants +1000

Odds as of March 9th at Caesars Sportsbook

The Commanders’ NFC East odds remain at +500, the same price they were prior to the deal for Wentz. Washington had been desperately shopping for a quarterback all off-season, calling virtually every team around the league looking for a starter.

They’ll pay Wentz his full $28 Million salary in 2022, including a $5 million bonus which is due next week.

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Washington Commanders Betting Analysis

The addition of Wentz should give Washington stability at the quarterback position, something they’ve been missing since they won the Super Bowl in 1991. Since then, they’ve cycled through 32 starters, including eight in the past three years.

The more we watch Wentz the more it seems like his 2017 season where he was a legit MVP candidate was an aberration. Nevertheless, he performed much better in his lone season in Indy than he did in his previous three campaigns in Philadelphia.

He was 9-8 with the Colts in 2021, throwing 27 TD passes, while tying a career-low with 7 interceptions. He finished with Pro Football Focus’ 21st best passing grade, which was eight spots higher than Taylor Heinicke, who he’ll be replacing.

Wentz fell out of favor with Indy thanks to his play over the team’s final two games. Needing just one win to make the playoffs, the Colts lost to both the Raiders and the lowly Jaguars. Wentz completed only 58.9% of his passes in those outings, and posted a QBR of 4.3 versus the Jags.

Heinicke meanwhile, was 7-8 in 2021 with a 20-to-15 TD-to-INT rate, but Washington finished 21st in yards per game and 24th in points per game.

The Commanders are armed with an excellent defense and a handful of quality playmakers like Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Curtis Samuel. Slotting in Wentz behind center is an upgrade over Heinicke and the move makes Washington a more dangerous NFC East team, despite what the divisional odds suggest.

Wentz generated 1.56 wins above replacement last season according to PFF, compared to only 0.7 by Heinicke. The Commanders should now be a legit Wild Card contender in the NFC, and as far as the division is concerned they should probably be priced closer to Philadelphia’s +340 number than their current price. That makes their +500 divisional odds look like a strong value.

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Indianapolis Colts Betting Analysis

Indianapolis will now begin its search for the team’s fourth starting QB in four years since Andrew Luck last played. The Colts sported +145 odds to win the AFC South prior to the trade, and after the deal their price did not move.

AFC South Odds

Team Odds
Tennessee Titans -105
Indianapolis Colts +145
Jacksonville Jaguars +675
Houston Texans +2500

That’s likely because the most logical QB target for Indy is Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers will likely look to move on from Jimmy G in favor of Trey Lance, last year’s third overall pick.

Going from Wentz to Garoppolo is essentially a lateral move in the eyes of oddsmakers, and it’s hard to argue. Like Wentz, Jimmy G has a history of turnover problems, but is more than capable of being a game manager.

The Colts want to pound the rock over and over with stud RB Jonathan Taylor, and then take advantage of overcrowded boxes with the play action passing game. That plays right into Garoppolo’s strengths as he’s not the type of QB you want to overload with volume.

If a Garoppolo to Indy relationship doesn’t pan out, keep an eye on the Packers’ Jordan Love. With reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers now locked up long term, Green Bay may want to explore trading Love. The Colts reportedly liked Love in the 2020 Draft, only to watch the Packers move up to take him in the first round.

Bottom line, if you were on Colts divisional futures before the Wentz trade don’t let their QB uncertainty now dissuade you. The team has too much talent not to be a contender, and it seems like at the very least they’ll have comparable quarterback play in 2022 to what they got last year.

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