Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Odds, Picks & Lines for Thanksgiving Day

• Thanksgiving Day football sees Dallas hosting Washington at 4:30 pm EST on Thursday, November 23, 2023
• Can the Cowboys reverse a trend that sees them underperform on Thanskgiving?
• Get the Commanders vs Cowboys odds, picks, and predictions for Thursday here

The second of three Thanksgiving Day games see the Dallas Cowboys (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS), hosting the Washington Commanders (4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) at 4:30 pm EST in an NFC East matchup. It’s Dallas listed as heavy 12.5-point favorites in the Commanders vs Cowboys odds.

Commanders vs Cowboys Odds

The Dallas Cowboys have been installed as 12.5-point favorites over the Washington Commanders on Thursday. The total is set at 49 points. The Commanders vs Cowboys odds also list Dallas as -675 on the moneyline giving them an implied probability of 87.10. Odds from DraftKings November 22. Check out DK and all of the best NFL betting apps to get the top Week 12 NFL promos.

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How to Watch Washington vs Dallas on Thursday

Viewers in the United States can watch the Commanders vs Cowboys game by tuning into CBS. Canadian viewers can watch by streaming on DAZN or watching on TSN.

Commanders vs Cowboys Head-to-Head History

The teams split their two meetings last year with both winning at home, Dallas 25-10 and Washington 26-6. The Cowboys have been the better bet straight up though in long-term NFL team trends having won 12 of the past 16 games.

Commanders vs Cowboys Public Betting Trends

Sizing up the NFL public betting splits for this game as of Wednesday, will show that both the money (70%) and bets (69%) are heavily in favor of the Cowboys.

Meanwhile, the public also sees this as a high-scoring game with 56% of the money and 52% of the bets coming in on the Over.

That Dallas support has helped to push this line from 10.5 all the way to 12.5 now in the Commanders vs Cowboys odds. The total has also risen from 48.5 to 49.

Washington Drops Second Game to Giants

Sam Howell keeps piling up the yards for the Commanders, leading the league with 3,038 passing yards, being the only QB to eclipse 3,000 yards so far. In Week 11 he threw for 255 yards and a touchdown, but also threw three interceptions and the Commanders lost 31-19 to another divisional rival, the previously 2-8 Giants.

That marks their second straight loss to the Giants within five games and their fourth loss in that period as well. Their only win in that time came against the 2-8 Patriots.

The loss to the Giants came despite Washington owning an edge in first downs 28-13, yards 403-292, time of possession 34:51-25:09, plays 77-54 and despite them sacking rookie QB Tommy DeVito nine times. In fact, the Commanders became just the second team since 2000 to sack an opposing quarterback nine or more times and lose the game. They also allowed DeVito to throw for three touchdowns.

NFL Leader in Passing Yards Entering Thanksgiving:

1. Sam Howell – 3,038 Yards
2. C.J. Stroud – 2,962 Yards
3. Tua Tagovailoa – 2,934 Yards
4. Josh Allen – 2,875 Yards
5. Jared Goff – 2,743 Yards
6. Brock Purdy – 2,662 Yards
7. Patrick Mahomes – 2,619 Yards
8. Justin Herberts -… pic.twitter.com/O0E6U9CAiD

— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) November 22, 2023

Overall, Washington’s other wins have come over Atlanta (4-6), Denver (5-5) and Arizona (2-9). So they haven’t fared well when stepping up in competition having yet to defeat a team with a winning record.

Cowboys Roll Another Weak Opponent

Dallas is a team with a winning record, now 7-3 after going on the road in Carolina and winning 33-10. Dak Prescott only threw for 189 yards, but did throw a touchdown to Luke Schoonmaker and CeeDee Lamb. Tony Pollard added a score on the ground and DaRon Bland returned a Bryce Young interception for a pick six. Lamb now has touchdowns in three of four games and could be worth a play in the Commanders vs Cowboys props.

Dallas held Bryce Young to just 123 yards but the score was still just 17-10 Dallas heading into the fourth quarter before Dallas pulled away with 16 points in the fourth.

Outside of a 28-23 road loss to Philadelphia, Dallas has wins in four of five games.

This game has the potential to fall into the category of games where Dallas excels in. Dallas has been beating up on bad teams this year. They’ve coasted to wins over Carolina (33-10), NYG (49-17), LAR (43-20), New England (38-3), NYJ (30-10) and NYG again (40-0).

Those teams have records of 1-9, 3-8, 4-6, 2-8  and 4-6 respectively.

Commanders vs Cowboys Head-to-Head Stats

Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction

Dallas ranks better in every single offensive and defensive category as you can see in the chart above. In only allowing 157.1 YPG passing, they should have a chance to contain Howell. Though he’ll be a step up from the likes of Young and DeVito that Dallas has faced in recent weeks. Howell should also find himself under pressure most of the afternoon. He’s sustained a league-high 51 sacks and the Cowboys come in ranking tied-sixth in sacks (33).

Both teams have skewed to the Over this season with Dallas being 6-4 and Washington 6-5.

Dallas have now won four of five and are 3-1 to the Over in their past four. Their last game fell Under the total, but that’s largely due to Carolina having no offense and only contributing 10 points.

Washinton with Howell keeps things interesting, but the Commanders have lost four of five and seven of nine. The Over is also 3-1 in Washington’s last four games.

Both coaches enter Week 12 being historically profitable in their current betting situations. Ron Rivera is 59-43-2 ATS as an underdog. While Mike McCarthy is 107-72-4 as a favorite.

Since 2011, Cowboys are 1-11 ATS on Thanksgiving. ❌

And Dak Prescott is 1-5 ATS on Turkey Day. @dallascowboys -11 vs. Commanders. pic.twitter.com/zaqNdazfx2

— John Ewing (@johnewing) November 22, 2023

The Cowboys are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home favorite this season and 9-2-0 the past two seasons in that role.

But you can flip that around and see that the Commanders have also been successful as a road underdog. They’re 5-0 ATS in that spot this season and 7-2 since last season.

On Thanksgiving, it’s usually a day where favorites bring home the bacon, or … turkey. Thankgiving Day favorites, especially big favorites have been money. Favorites of seven or more points are 21-4 SU and 23-8 ATS since 1990. Even stretching that to ten points or more still returns similar results of 11-0 ATS for favs of 10+ points.

So load up on Dallas? Maybe not so fast. The Cowboys seem to be the exception being 1-11 ATS in their last 12 Thanksgiving Day games, 0-4 ATS in their past four and Prescott is 1-5 ATS himself on the holiday.

In his short career, Howell has performed better at the betting window on the road, being 5-1 ATS. As a dog, Howeell is 6-2. We’ll back the Commanders to hang around in this one and cover in the Commanders vs Cowboys odds.

Commanders vs Cowboys Picks: Commanders (+12.5)