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Week 11 NFL Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Sunday, November 22

Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb is healthy and carrying the Browns offense again. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)
  • Sunday of Week 11 carries another 12 games on schedule
  • Our prop bets from Week 10 went 3-4
  • See the player props and touchdown props for every game on Sunday below

We ended up in the red last week thanks to Aaron Jones’ underwhelming performance and James Robinson having not one, but TWO touchdowns called back to sink our anytime touchdown bet on the Jags running back.

But hey, that’s going to happen. I’m back on the saddle with some more player props that I see value in for Week 11 in the NFL.

Week 11 NFL Player Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 25.5 (Ov -139 | Un +112) 274.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -200 | Un +159)
Jake Luton (JAX) 19.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 227.5 (Ov +134 | Un -167) 1.5 (Ov +168 | Un -215)
Matt Ryan (ATL) 23.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 285.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -175 | Un +138)
Taysom Hill (NO) N/A N/A N/A
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 18.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 215.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov +124 | Un -155)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 18.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 219.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov +108 | Un -134)
Carson Wentz (PHI) 22.5 (Ov -107 | Un -117) 244.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov +114 | Un -141)
Baker Mayfield (CLE) 18.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 222.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -117 | Un -107)
Joe Burrow (CIN) 24.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 275.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -155 | Un +124)
Alex Smith (WAS) 23.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 269.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108)
Cam Newton (NE) 19.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 215.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov +134 | Un -167)
Deshaun Watson (HOU) 23.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101) 277.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -167 | Un +134)
Matthew Stafford (DET) N/A N/A N/A
Phillip Walker (CAR) N/A N/A N/A
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 19.5 (Ov -130 | Un +105) 227.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov +105 | Un -130)
Drew Lock (DEN) N/A N/A N/A
Joe Flacco (NYJ) 20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 240.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -177)
Justin Herbert (LAC) 25.5 (Ov -107 | Un -117) 277.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -182 | Un +145)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 24.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 278.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -200 | Un +159)
Philip Rivers (IND) 24.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 270.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -200 | Un +159)
Andy Dalton (DAL) 22.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 252.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov +102 | Un -127)
Kirk Cousins (MIN) 19.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 237.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -152 | Un +122)
Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
James Conner (PIT) 17.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 73.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 93.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105)
James Robinson (JAX) 16.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 63.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100) 89.5 (Ov -110 | Un -111)
Todd Gurley (ATL) 15.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 50.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 64.5 (Ov -120 | Un +100)
Alvin Kamara (NO) N/A N/A N/A
Latavius Murray (NO) N/A N/A N/A
Derrick Henry (TEN) 19.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 86.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 98.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 9.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 54.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101) N/A
JK Dobbins (BAL) 8.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 34.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 50.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Gus Edwards (BAL) 8.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 36.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 42.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
Miles Sanders (PHI) 14.5 (Ov -114 | Un -109) 65.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 89.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)
Nick Chubb (CLE) 16.5 (Ov -109 | Un -114) 71.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 80.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Kareem Hunt (CLE) 13.5 (Ov +100 | Un -124) 56.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 79.5 (Ov +110 | Un -133)
Giovani Bernard (CIN) N/A N/A N/A
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 12.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 48.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105)
Damien Harris (NE) N/A 63.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100) N/A
Cam Newton (NE) N/A 42.5 (Ov +101 | Un -125) N/A
Duke Johnson (HOU) N/A 55.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Kerryon Johnson (DET) N/A N/A N/A
Mike Davis (CAR) N/A N/A N/A
Salvin Ahmed (MIA) N/A 54.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Melvin Gordon (DEN) 11.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 48.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 63.5  (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Phillip Lindsay (DEN) 6.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 36.5 (Ov -110 | Un -111)
La’Mical Perine (NYJ) 12.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 51.5 (Ov +101 | Un -125) 72.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Frank Gore (NYJ) 8.5 (Ov -107 | Un -117) 31.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Kalen Ballage (LAC) 13.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) 53.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 78.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Aaron Jones (GB) 14.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 52.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101) 85.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
Jordan Wilkins (IND) 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -108) 34.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 43.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Nyheim Hines (IND) 7.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 30.5 (Ov -117 | Un -107) 62.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 8.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101) 34.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 46.5 (Ov -105 | Un -118)
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 14.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 59.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 78.5 (Ov -105| Un -115)
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 21.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100) 97.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 124.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) 5.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 59.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 20.5 (Ov -128 | Un +105)
Chase Claypool (PIT) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -124) 45.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -111)
Diontae Johnson (PIT) 5.5 (Ov +101 | Un -125) 59.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
DJ Chark (JAX) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -143) 54.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -111)
Keelan Cole (JAX) 3.5 (Ov +110 | Un -137) 42.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Julio Jones (ATL) 5.5 (Ov -150 | Un +120) 80.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105)
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -130) 59.5 (Ov -132 | Un +106) N/A
Hayden Hurst (ATL) 3.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100) 38.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)
Michael Thomas (NO) 5.5 (Ov +121 | Un -150) 68.5 (Ov +120 | Un -150) N/A
Emmanuel Sanders (NO) N/A N/A N/A
Jared Cook (NO) N/A N/A N/A
AJ Brown (TEN) 4.5 (Ov +124 | Un -155) 53.5 (Ov -120 | Un -105) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105)
Corey Davis (TEN) 3.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 44.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101) N/A
Jonnu Smith (TEN) 2.5 (Ov -182 | Un +145) 27.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 14.5 (Ov -120 | Un +100)
Mark Andrews (BAL) 3.5 (Ov -167 | Un +134) 45.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 18.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Marquise Brown (BAL) 3.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 44.5 (Ov -155 | Un +124) 19.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Travis Fulgham (PHI) 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -150) 50.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov +100  | Un -125)
Jalen Raegor (PHI) 3.5 (Ov -139 | Un +112) 44.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un +100)
Dallas Goedert (PHI) 3.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100) 37.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Jarvis Landry (CLE) 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +132) 50.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Rashard Higgins (CLE) 2.5 (Ov -141 | Un +114) 36.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Tee Higgins (CIN) 5.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 72.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
AJ Green (CIN) 3.5 (Ov +100 | Un -124) 41.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 5.5 (Ov -129 | Un +104) 70.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 4.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 73.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 25.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105)
Logan Thomas (WAS) 3.5 (Ov +122 | Un -152) 35.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 17.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120)
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 4.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) 58.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 4.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) 62.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 23.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
Will Fuller (HOU) 4.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108) 60.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 22.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105)
Marvin Jones (DET) N/A N/A N/A
TJ Hockenson (DET) N/A N/A N/A
DJ Moore (CAR) N/A N/A N/A
Robby Anderson (CAR) N/A N/A N/A
Curtis Samuel (CAR) N/A N/A N/A
DeVante Parker (MIA) 4.5 (Ov +126 | Un -157) 53.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120)
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 2.5 (Ov -139 | Un +112) 31.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 16.5 (Ov -110 | Un -111)
Jakeem Grant (MIA) 3.5 (Ov +117 | Un -148) 38.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 17.5 (Ov -128 | Un +105)
Noah Fant (DEN) N/A N/A N/A
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) N/A N/A N/A
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) N/A N/A N/A
Denzel Mims (NYJ) 3.5 (Ov -152| Un +122) 45.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105)
Keenan Allen (LAC) 7.5 (Ov +110 | Un -137) 71.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un +100)
Hunter Henry (LAC) 4.5 (Ov +140| Un -177) 42.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 17.5 (Ov -105 | Un -118)
Mike Williams (LAC) 3.5 (Ov -130 | Un +105) 52.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105)
Davante Adams (GB) N/A 85.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Robert Tonyan (GB) 3.5 (Ov +138 | Un -175) 34.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Michael Pittman (IND) 4.5 (Ov +126 | Un -157) 49.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
Zach Pascal (IND) 3.5 (Ov +126 | Un -157) 35.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 17.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105)
Amari Cooper (DAL) 4.5 (Ov -167 | Un +134) 57.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov +105 | Un -128)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 4.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) 60.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 22.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
Michael Gallup (DAL) 3.5 (Ov +110 | Un -137) 42.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 19.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Adam Thielen (MIN) 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -137) 60.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 24.5 (Ov -105 | Un -118)
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 4.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 57.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) 25.5 (Ov +100 | Un -128)

Odds taken on November 21 from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM

Browns Lean on Chubb Again

Nick Chubb is averaging 93.1 rushing yards per game over the last two seasons. Over his last three full games played, he’s averaging 119.3 and has not had less than 108 in any of them.

With the Browns in a tight race for an AFC wild card spot, they’ll be leaning on Chubb often over the last seven weeks. In Week 11, that’ll come against an Eagles defense that has allowed an average of 133 yards per game on the ground, seventh-most in the league.

Plus, with Philadelphia’s offense struggling this season, it’s hard to imagine Chubb facing any sort of negative game script.

Pick: Nick Chubb over 71.5 rushing yards (-111) – 1 unit 

Betting on Lamar’s Legs After a Loss Again

We cashed on this one two weeks ago, when Lamar Jackson was facing a very tough Colts defense after a loss to the Steelers, and I’m jumping on it again.

When Jackson faces adversity, he follows it up by using his legs often. As I pointed out in Week 9, the Ravens QB has rushed for at least 53 yards in every game that immediately follows a loss. Jackson is averaging 58.2 rushing yards per game this season.

But if you strictly look at the competitive games – final score was within two scores – Baltimore has played this season, which their Week 11 game against the Titans expects to be, he’s averaging 73.8. (I excluded the game against Washington since he did not play much of the fourth quarter with the game not close.)

No one is mistaking the Titans for a good defense, either.

Pick: Lamar Jackson over 54.5 rushing yards (-125) – 1 unit

Rivers Continues to Trust Pittman

Michael Pittman Jr has started for the Colts in two of his last three games since returning from injury in Week 8. In those two starts, he’s seen seven and eight targets, respectively, which he has turned into a total of 157 receiving yards.

Philip Rivers loves big-bodied receivers – see Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd, and Vincent Jackson among others. Pittman is exactly that at 6’4″ and 223lbs. Even with limited game reps, the Colts’ rookie has gained the trust of his quarterback, and that goes a long way in tough games against another high-scoring offense.

Pick: Michael Pittman over 49.5 receiving yards (-112) – 1 unit

Odds to Score a Touchdown in Week 11

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
James Conner (PIT) +500 -162
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) +950 +145
Diontae Johnson (PIT) +1050 +165
Eric Ebron (PIT) +1200 +190
Chase Claypool (PIT) +1300 +210
James Robinson (JAX) +1000 +125
DJ Chark (JAX) +1200 +190
Keelan Cole (JAX) +1600 +250
Todd Gurley (ATL) +650 -125
Julio Jones (ATL) +900 +125
Calvin Ridley (ATL) +1100 +150
Hayden Hurst (ATL) +1200 +175
Alvin Kamara (NO) +600 -143
Michael Thomas (NO) +850 +120
Taysom Hill (NO) +1000 +150
Emmanuel Sanders (NO) +1600 +250
Jared Cook (NO) +1600 +250
Derrick Henry (TEN) +600 -143
AJ Brown (TEN) +1200 +165
Corey Davis (TEN) +1200 +180
Jonnu Smith (TEN) +1200 +180
Mark Andrews (BAL) +800 +105
Lamar Jackson (BAL) +900 +120
Marquise Brown (BAL) +1100 +160
Gus Edwards (BAL) +1600 +260
JK Dobbins (BAL) +1600 +240
Miles Sanders (PHI) +700 -112
Carson Wentz (PHI) +1500 +225
Travis Fulgham (PHI) +1600 +285
Dallas Goedert (PHI) +1800 +300
Nick Chubb (CLE) +650 -115
Kareem Hunt (CLE) +700 +100
Jarvis Landry (CLE) +1100 +165
Austin Hooper (CLE) +1500 +260
Giovani Bernard (CIN) +1050 +150
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1200 +180
Tyler Boyd (CIN) +1300 +200
AJ Green (CIN) +1800 +300
Antonio Gibson (WAS) +650 -115
Terry McLaurin (WAS) +1000 +150
JD McKissic (WAS) +1000 +150
Logan Thomas (WAS) +1100 +180
Cam Newton (NE) +600 -139
Damien Harris (NE) +1200 +165
Jakobi Meyers (NE) +1300 +200
Rex Burkhead (NE) +1600 +260
Duke Johnson (HOU) +900 +130
Brandin Cooks (HOU) +1000 +145
Will Fuller (HOU) +1000 +145
Deshaun Watson (HOU) +1600 +260
Randall Cobb (HOU) +2000 +325
Kerryon Johnson (DET) N/A N/A
TJ Hockenson (DET) N/A N/A
Adrian Peterson (DET) N/A N/A
Marvin Jones (DET) N/A N/A
Mike Davis (CAR) N/A N/A
Robby Anderson (CAR) N/A N/A
DJ Moore (CAR) N/A N/A
DeVante Parker (MIA) +1050 +250
Salvon Ahmed (MIA) +1050 +160
Mike Gesicki (MIA) +1100 +165
Jakeem Grant (MIA) +1400 +250
Melvin Gordon (DEN) +850 +130
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) +1400 +225
Noah Fant (DEN) +1400 +225
Philip Lindsay (DEN) +1600 +300
La’Mical Perine (NYJ) +1400 +220
Denzel Mims (NYJ) +1800 +300
Frank Gore (NYJ) +1800 +300
Keenan Allen (LAC) +750 +110
Mike Williams (LAC) +900 +145
Kalen Ballage (LAC) +900 +140
Hunter Henry (LAC) +1000 +150
Aaron Jones (GB) +600 -139
Davante Adams (GB) +650 -134
Robert Tonyan (GB) +1200 +160
Allen Lazard (GB) +1400 +190
Nyhiem Hines (IND) +950 +125
Jonathan Taylor (IND) +1000 +135
Jordan Wilkins (IND) +1100 +150
Michael Pittman (IND) +1600 +250
TY Hilton (IND) +1600 +250
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) +700 -106
Amari Cooper (DAL) +1300 +200
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) +1600 +250
Michael Gallup (DAL) +2000 +325
Dalvin Cook (MIN) +350 -286
Adam Thielen (MIN) +750 +100
Justin Jefferson (MIN) +850 +120
Alexander Mattison (MIN) +1600 +275

Which Players Should You Bet to Score a Touchdown?

I’m not a fan of betting who will score the first or last touchdown in a game. It’s generally a shot in the dark. Handicapping anytime touchdowns is much easier, though. Let me run through a few players I believe present value:

  1. Kalen Ballage anytime touchdown (+140): Ballage appears to be the preferred option in the Chargers backfield while Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler remain sidelined. He has received 33 carries in the last two weeks and now enters his revenge game against Adam Gase and the Jets. These are great odds for the lead RB in a game that expects to see LA in control. (0.5 units)
  2. Nyheim Hines anytime touchdown (+125): The Colts running backs have a great matchup against the Packers this weekend, who are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and have given up 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Trying to figure out the lead back for Indianapolis each game this season has been a nightmare. But Hines is certainly the closest to capturing the lead back duties and I see value in him at +125 to score a touchdown. (0.25 units)
  3. Taysom Hill anytime touchdown (+150): Everything Sean Payton revealed on Friday – that Hill would start and Jameis Winston will not be schemed into any packages – could be smoke and mirrors. But if he is telling the truth, Hill at +150 to score offers insane value. I’m going to cautiously trust Payton here. (0.5 units)
  4. Nick Chubb anytime touchdown (-115): Chubb is Cleveland’s ticket to the playoffs. The Browns are going to ride him, and the RB has at least one touchdown in every game he has received more than 10 carries this season. (1.5 units)
  5. Damien Harris anytime touchdown (+165): Harris has racked up way too many yards and runs way too hard to only have one touchdown in his six starts this season. Houston has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season, tied for seventh-most in the NFL, and 1,507 rushing yards, which is the most in the NFL. (0.5 unit)
  6. La’Mical Perine anytime touchdown (+220): Here’s my biggest long shot of the week. The Chargers are giving up 4.7 yards per carry this season, and the Jets receiving corps might actually command a bit of respect. It might come in garbage time, but I think Perine’s chances of finding the endzone are much better than the 31.2% implied from his odds. (0.25 units)
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