Week 11 NFL Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Sunday, November 22

• Sunday of Week 11 carries another 12 games on schedule
• Our prop bets from Week 10 went 3-4
• See the player props and touchdown props for every game on Sunday below

We ended up in the red last week thanks to Aaron Jones’ underwhelming performance and James Robinson having not one, but TWO touchdowns called back to sink our anytime touchdown bet on the Jags running back.

But hey, that’s going to happen. I’m back on the saddle with some more player props that I see value in for Week 11 in the NFL.

Week 11 NFL Player Props

Odds taken on November 21 from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM

Browns Lean on Chubb Again

Nick Chubb is averaging 93.1 rushing yards per game over the last two seasons. Over his last three full games played, he’s averaging 119.3 and has not had less than 108 in any of them.

📂 Things You Love to See
└📂 Nick Chubb
└📂 Week 10 Return pic.twitter.com/jgGqIjX8D7

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 17, 2020

With the Browns in a tight race for an AFC wild card spot, they’ll be leaning on Chubb often over the last seven weeks. In Week 11, that’ll come against an Eagles defense that has allowed an average of 133 yards per game on the ground, seventh-most in the league.

Plus, with Philadelphia’s offense struggling this season, it’s hard to imagine Chubb facing any sort of negative game script.

Pick: Nick Chubb over 71.5 rushing yards (-111) – 1 unit 

Betting on Lamar’s Legs After a Loss Again

We cashed on this one two weeks ago, when Lamar Jackson was facing a very tough Colts defense after a loss to the Steelers, and I’m jumping on it again.

When Jackson faces adversity, he follows it up by using his legs often. As I pointed out in Week 9, the Ravens QB has rushed for at least 53 yards in every game that immediately follows a loss. Jackson is averaging 58.2 rushing yards per game this season.

But if you strictly look at the competitive games – final score was within two scores – Baltimore has played this season, which their Week 11 game against the Titans expects to be, he’s averaging 73.8. (I excluded the game against Washington since he did not play much of the fourth quarter with the game not close.)

No one is mistaking the Titans for a good defense, either.

Pick: Lamar Jackson over 54.5 rushing yards (-125) – 1 unit

Rivers Continues to Trust Pittman

Michael Pittman Jr has started for the Colts in two of his last three games since returning from injury in Week 8. In those two starts, he’s seen seven and eight targets, respectively, which he has turned into a total of 157 receiving yards.

Philip Rivers loves big-bodied receivers – see Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd, and Vincent Jackson among others. Pittman is exactly that at 6’4″ and 223lbs. Even with limited game reps, the Colts’ rookie has gained the trust of his quarterback, and that goes a long way in tough games against another high-scoring offense.

Pick: Michael Pittman over 49.5 receiving yards (-112) – 1 unit

Odds to Score a Touchdown in Week 11

Which Players Should You Bet to Score a Touchdown?

I’m not a fan of betting who will score the first or last touchdown in a game. It’s generally a shot in the dark. Handicapping anytime touchdowns is much easier, though. Let me run through a few players I believe present value:

1. Kalen Ballage anytime touchdown (+140): Ballage appears to be the preferred option in the Chargers backfield while Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler remain sidelined. He has received 33 carries in the last two weeks and now enters his revenge game against Adam Gase and the Jets. These are great odds for the lead RB in a game that expects to see LA in control. (0.5 units)
2. Nyheim Hines anytime touchdown (+125): The Colts running backs have a great matchup against the Packers this weekend, who are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and have given up 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Trying to figure out the lead back for Indianapolis each game this season has been a nightmare. But Hines is certainly the closest to capturing the lead back duties and I see value in him at +125 to score a touchdown. (0.25 units)
3. Taysom Hill anytime touchdown (+150): Everything Sean Payton revealed on Friday – that Hill would start and Jameis Winston will not be schemed into any packages – could be smoke and mirrors. But if he is telling the truth, Hill at +150 to score offers insane value. I’m going to cautiously trust Payton here. (0.5 units)
4. Nick Chubb anytime touchdown (-115): Chubb is Cleveland’s ticket to the playoffs. The Browns are going to ride him, and the RB has at least one touchdown in every game he has received more than 10 carries this season. (1.5 units)
5. Damien Harris anytime touchdown (+165): Harris has racked up way too many yards and runs way too hard to only have one touchdown in his six starts this season. Houston has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season, tied for seventh-most in the NFL, and 1,507 rushing yards, which is the most in the NFL. (0.5 unit)
6. La’Mical Perine anytime touchdown (+220): Here’s my biggest long shot of the week. The Chargers are giving up 4.7 yards per carry this season, and the Jets receiving corps might actually command a bit of respect. It might come in garbage time, but I think Perine’s chances of finding the endzone are much better than the 31.2% implied from his odds. (0.25 units)