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Week 11 NFL Upset Picks – Underdogs Showing Value

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Nov 19, 2023 · 5:15 AM PST

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) calls a play
Oct 29, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) calls a play in the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
  • Which NFL underdogs are poised to pull off the upset in Week 11?
  • Josh Dobbs is 2-0 with the Vikings and Minnesota is riding a five-game winning streak. Can they upset the odds on SNF?
  • Check out our favorite Week 11 NFL upset picks below

It’s anyone’s game on most weekends in the NFL this season. There are a few good teams, several bad ones and a whole lot of mediocrity. Which means betting on underdogs in most of these coinflip games can prove to be profitable. We have three games here all lined within a field goal where we’re jumping on the underdog for our Week 11 NFL upset picks.

NFL Week 11 Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Moneyline Pick Units Risked
Seattle vs Los Angeles SEA -1 LAR -105 LAR 1
Minnesota vs Denver DEN -2.5 MIN +110 MIN 1
Philadelphia vs Kansas City KC -2.5 PHI +115 PHI 1

This weekend’s NFL upset picks for Week 11 include the Rams (-105), Vikings (+110) and Eagles (+124). Odds from ESPN Sportsbook.

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Week 11 NFL Upset Picks

In this weekend’s upset picks we’re banking on Stafford’s return pushing the Rams to victory, the Josh Dobbs’ magic continuing on SNF and the Eagles exacting some revenge from their Super Bowl loss.

NFL Upset Picks 1: Seattle vs Los Angeles

It’s a very short spread, but at the time of this writing the Rams are still Week 11 underdogs at +1 in the NFL spreads.

The Rams have already beaten the Seahawks once this season, winning 30-13 in Week 1.

The straight up records may show that Seattle is 6-3 and LA is 3-6, but the NFL ATS records show that both are 4-4-1 against the spread.

Seattle edged out Washington last week 29-26 but were tied with the 4-6 Commanders at home in the final moments of that game. Sam Howell threw all over Seattle for 312 yards and three touchdowns. The week prior, Seattle got routed in Baltimore 37-3.

Now the Rams are no Baltimore, but they do get Matthew Stafford back from a thumb injury that he injured in Week 8 versus Dallas. Assuming he doesn’t re-injure it on Sunday, Stafford can do just the same as Howell did last week throwing to WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua keeping the Rams alive to cash an upset bet.

NFL Upset Picks: LA (-105)

NFL Upset Picks 2: Minnesota vs Denver

Minnesota started the season just 1-4 and looked dead in the water when starting quarterback Kirk Cousins went down with an Achilles injury.

But Cardinals’ cast-off Josh Dobbs came in at the trade deadline and has led the Vikings to back-to-back wins. Minnesota has now won five in a row, are 6-4 and well in the hunt for the NFC North title with Detroit leading at 7-2.

With Dobbs at QB, Minnesota has won 31-28 and 27-19. He’s thrown for three touchdowns and run in two more on the ground in those two games.

Denver is coming in off a comeback 24-22 road win in Buffalo on Monday Night Football with Will Lutz kicking the game-winning field goal. Denver was aided by two Josh Allen interceptions as well as two lost fumbles by the Bills.

Dobbs hasn’t thrown an interception with the Vikes yet and actually only has five on the season. The arrow looks up on both teams here right now, but Denver is coming off the short week, this is another prime-time game where points have been coming at a premium and in a close game, the Vikes have every chance to get the win in our Week 11 upset picks.

NFL Upset Picks: Minnesota (+110)

NFL Upset Picks 3: Philadelphia vs Kansas City

One of the best MNF games we’ve seen in some time, sees a Super Bowl rematch between Philly and KC. The Chiefs won 38-35 back in February. At 7-2 (KC) and 8-1 (PHI), both are off to flying starts again this season.

Certainly, there are all kinds of trends that support the Chiefs winning and covering this game. Andy Reid is 25-6 SU off off a bye. Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of three points of less is 20-6-1 ATS and in his last 31 games played in November or December he’s 30-1 SU.

But this Chiefs offense isn’t the same as years past. They’re just 13th in PPG and they failed to score any points in the second half in Germany versus a weak Dolphins defense.

This will be a step up versus the Eagles defense. Especially versus a run defense ranked first in yards allowed per game. But the Chiefs defense has been elite this season ranking second in points allowed and fourth in yards allowed per game. Rain and wind could also be in the weather forecast for Monday which could muck up the offenses for both. That in theory could tip the scales in the favor of the better running team, Philly, ranked eighth. In a game that looks close and could tilt either way and come down to a few key plays, the value is on Philly in our Week 11 upset picks.

NFL Upset Picks: Philadelphia (+115)

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