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Week 12 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, November 28

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Nov 27, 2021 · 12:07 PM PST

Dalvin Cook Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) catches a pass in the third quarter during an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020, in Minneapolis. The Bears defeated the Vikings 33-27. (AP Photo/David Berding)
  • NFL Week 12 player props for are now available at online sportsbooks
  • Matt McEwan has 11 props he is betting for Week 12
  • See all the NFL props available and which he’s betting on Sunday

Sunday of Week 12 has a couple less games than normal with three games being played on Thanksgiving. There is certainly no shortage of player props to bet, though. Sportsbooks have released their NFL props for the weekend, outside of a couple games where key players’ statuses are unknown.

I went 4-4 on my best player props to bet in Week 11, losing 0.42 units—the Justin Fields injury was the difference between a winning/losing day. I’m now +2.68 units in my last seven outings.

In looking to bounce back, I see a lot of props I like in Week 12. I’ve trimmed it down to 11 player props that I’ll be betting on Sunday, November 21. You’ll find the NFL player props for Week 12 broken into sections below, with my best prop bets for each included.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Tom Brady (TB) 26.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 315.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +140 | Un -185)
Carson Wentz (IND) 22.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 245.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Zach Wilson (NYJ) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 229.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -190)
Tyrod Taylor (HOU) 20.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 225.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160)
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 17.5 (Ov -102 | Un -130) 198.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +130 | Un -175)
Daniel Jones (NYG) 22.5 (Ov -108 | Un -122) 225.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -190)
Cam Newton (CAR) 18.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 214.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 22.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 226.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -170)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 21.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 233.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -205)
Mac Jones (NE) 21.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 239.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 23.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 254.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 1.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)
Joe Burrow (CIN) 22.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 255.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105)
Justin Herbert (LAC) 24.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 272.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 1.5 (Ov -188 | Un +140)
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) 21.5 (Ov -130 | Un -102) 231.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 1.5 (Ov -148 | Un +112)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 271.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 2.5 (Ov +170 | Un -230)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 24.5 (Ov +106 | Un -140) 271.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 2.5 (Ov +160 | Un -215)
Kirk Cousins (MIN) 23.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 270.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 250.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)

All props as of November 27.

With Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs on bye in Week 12, Tom Brady has the highest passing total for Sunday, with his over/under listed at 315.5 against the Colts. Jalen Hurts has the lowest at 198.5.

Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 12

1) Ben Roethlisberger OVER 254.5 Passing Yards (-114); risk 1 unit

Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers take on the Bengals for the second time this season. The first meeting came in Week 3, when Cincinnati came out of Pittsburgh with a 24-10 win. Despite only notching ten points on the day, Roethlisberger threw for a whopping 318 yards.

He totaled all those yards without his favorite receiver Diontae Johnson, who missed the game due to injury. Johnson is healthy and will be available for the Week 12 matchup. These two facts leave me a little confused as to why this line is so low.

Cincinnati ranks 24th against the pass and only allow 4.2 yards per carry (13th). Teams are obviously attempting to attack them through the air—part of this can be attributed to their offense putting teams in negative game scripts. They have been a little better defending the pass lately, only allowing 218 to (a banged up) Mayfield (where they lost 41-16), and 215 to Derek Carr.

But the Bengals have struggled mightily against quarterbacks who are capable of getting the ball out of their hands quickly. Aaron Rodgers dropped 344 on them, Mike White went for 405, and Kirk Cousins posted 351. Big Ben almost strictly operates quick game at this point of his career, and has his best underneath receiver available in Johnson.

On top of that, Roethlisberger has gone over this total in two of his last three games. I like Ben to smash this over.

2) Matthew Stafford OVER 271.5 Passing Yards (-114); risk 1 unit

This line has shot up as high as 281.5 at some sportsbooks, but is still available as low as 271.5 at FanDuel (at the time of publishing this). I can appreciate that Matthew Stafford is coming off his worst outing of the season in Week 10 against the 49ers, where he only managed 243 yards and threw two interceptions.

However, that was a game played only a couple days after learning wide receiver Robert Woods was lost for the season with a knee injury. On top of that, Odell Beckham Jr had just signed with the team and only played 27% of the snaps. What I’m saying is, that game is the anomaly.

Stafford averages 301.4 passing yards per game and has gone over this total in eight of ten games this season. He also averages 284 yards per game in his 20 meetings with the Packers.

Green Bay does rank seventh against the pass, but they’ve also had it a little lighter than it may seem. The Packers got to play Patrick Mahomes in the middle of his little funk and Russell Wilson in his first game back from his finger injury. We have seen the Packers defense allow 341 yards to Kirk Cousins, 281 to Joe Burrow, 268 to Taylor Heinicke, and 274 to Kyler Murray, though.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Leonard Fournette (TB) 12.5 (Ov -122 | Un -108) 51.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 86.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 18.5 (Ov -130 | Un -102) 79.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 107.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Ty Johnson (NYJ) 6.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Rex Burkhead (HOU) 36.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Miles Sanders (PHI) 60.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 80.5 (Ov -120 | Un -115)
Saquon Barkley (NYG) 54.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 85.5 (Ov -115| Un -115)
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 70.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 128.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 56.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 79.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) 47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Dontrell Hilliard (TEN) 7.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Najee Harris (PIT) 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 66.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 98.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Joe Mixon (CIN) 17.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 72.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 90.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 58.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 100.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Javonte Williams (DEN) 51.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 70.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Melvin Gordon (DEN) 54.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darrell Henderson Jr (LAR) 13.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 17.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 77.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 104.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)

Although he’s playing a very tough Buccaneers defense in Sunday, Jonathan Taylor still has the highest rushing total of the week. His over/under is set at 79.5, just slightly higher than Dalvin Cook’s 77.5.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 12

1) Dalvin Cook OVER 77.5 Rushing Yards (-114); risk 1 unit

Dalvin Cook is averaging 91.8 rushing yards per game this season. He has surpassed this total in each of his last five games. The 49ers are allowing 4.3 yards per carry, good for 19th in the league.

Minnesota has not played in a game this year where the margin of victory/defeat was greater than one score. They’re always hanging around, or allowing their opponent to hang around. This means Cook is always relevant as a rusher.

I don’t believe San Francisco has the firepower with Jimmy Garoppolo under center to blow Minnesota away. Cook should see a healthy workload and should smash this total.

2) Cam Newton OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

This line is a little better than the 27.5 set for Cam Newton in his first start of the season last week, but it’s still too low. Newton rushed for 46 yards against a tough Washington defensive line—their linebacking corps is also pretty athletic. He notched those 46 yards on ten carries.

Carolina takes on Miami as 2-point favorites in Week 12. At 5-6 in a pretty tough NFC, this is looking like a must-win for the Panthers. The Dolphins defense has potentially found their groove lately, only allowing 36 total points over the last three weeks—two of those games came against the Jets and Texans, but they did hold the Ravens to ten points.

They’ve done it with a lot of blitz that has created a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This would be a recipe for plenty of Cam Newton rushing attempts on Sunday. They may not all be called running plays, but when Cam is pressured and confused, he is going to rely on his athleticism.

3) Tyrod Taylor OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

I lost my Tyrod Taylor prop last week thanks to Tennessee not showing up for the game. But that was a passing prop. The sportsbooks are still setting Taylor’s rushing props too low.

In his four games this season, Taylor has rushed for 40, 15 (in one half), 23, and 28 yards. Yet, here we are looking at a line of 20.5 for an extremely winnable Week 12 game against the Jets.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Chris Godwin (TB) 6.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 77.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Mike Evans (TB) 67.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Michael Pittman Jr (IND) 4.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 65.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
TY Hilton (IND) 3.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Ryan Griffin (NYJ) 1.5 (Ov -175 | Un +130) 18.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 11.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Ty Johnson (NYJ) 2.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 21.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 12.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 4.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 57.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 25.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Pharaoh Brown (HOU) 1.5 (Ov -175 | Un +130) 14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 9.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Dallas Goedert (PHI) 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -155) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
DeVonta Smith (PHI) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -170) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darius Slayton (NYG) 38.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Kenny Golladay  (NYG) 3.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 44.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 5.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 48.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 18.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
DJ Moore (CAR) 55.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) 4.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 47.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 3.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 41.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 18.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Dez Fitzpatrick (TEN) 33.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) 3.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 41.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -125)
Kendrick Bourne (NE) 3.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 40.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Chase Claypool (PIT) 4.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 56.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Diontae Johnson (PIT) 6.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 75.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 41.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 5.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 59.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 43.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Keenan Allen (LAC) 6.5 (Ov -136 | Un +102) 70.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Mike Williams (LAC) 3.5 (Ov -148 | Un +112) 50.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 3.5 (Ov -154 | Un +116) 46.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un -102) 48.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 7.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 97.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Van Jefferson (LAR) 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 43.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Davante Adams (GB) 90.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 26.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) 41.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Adam Thielen (MIN) 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 6.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 84.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 5.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
George Kittle (SF) 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 57.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)

Cooper Kupp has the highest receiving line set for Week 12 at 97.5. It’s a handful of yards higher than Davante Adams (90.5), who Kupp’s Rams will be taking on this Sunday.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 12

1) Rob Gronkowski OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards (-113); risk 0.75 units

Have a look at the receiving yards Rob Gronkowski has recorded in five games this season:

  • Week 1: 90
  • Week 2: 39 – Tampa Bay blew out Atlanta and Brady only threw 36 passes, his second-fewest attempts of the season
  • Week 3: 55
  • Week 8: 0 – got hurt after six snaps
  • Week 11: 71

Tom Brady loves Rob Gronkowski. The tight end is averaging 51 receiving yards per game and has seen eight targets in three of his five games. He only saw five in the Atlanta blowout and one in the Week 8 game he got hurt early in.

Antonio Brown has been ruled out, which helps Gronk’s case for even more targets against a tough Indianapolis defense.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Leonard Fournette (TB) +800 -105
Mike Evans (TB) +850 +105
Chris Godwin (TB) +850 +105
Jonathan Taylor (IND) +450 -200
Michael Pittman Jr (IND) +1200 +175
TY Hilton (IND) +1600 +240
Tevin Coleman (NYJ) +1000 +175
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) +1200 +190
Corey Davis (NYJ) +1200 +190
David Johnson (HOU) +800 +110
Brandin Cooks (HOU) +850 +140
Tyrod Taylor (HOU) +1100 +200
Jalen Hurts (PHI) +850 +120
Miles Sanders (PHI) +850 +120
DeVonta Smith (PHI) +1000 +140
Saquon Barkley (NYG) +1000 +165
Darius Slayton (NYG) +1400 +220
Kadarius Toney (NYG) +1400 +220
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) +550 -110
Cam Newton (CAR) +750 +130
DJ Moore (CAR) +1000 +190
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) +900 +165
Myles Gaskin (MIA) +1000 +175
Mike Gesicki (MIA) +1200 +225
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) +1100 +160
Jonnu Smith (TEN) +1800 +310
Dontrell Hilliard (TEN) +1800 +290
Damien Harris (NE) +750 +105
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) +1000 +160
Jakobi Meyers (NE) +1000 +160
Najee Harris (PIT) +650 -110
Diontae Johnson (PIT) +900 +140
Chase Claypool (PIT) +1200 +200
Joe Mixon (CIN) +450 -165
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +750 +115
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1000 +160
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) +650 -110
Kyle Pitts (ATL) +750 +115
Mike Davis (ATL) +1000 +105
James Robinson (JAX) +650 -105
Marvin Jones Jr (JAX) +750 +105
Laviska Shenault Jr (JAX) +1000 +150
Austin Ekeler (LAC) +450 -175
Mike Williams (LAC) +900 +130
Keenan Allen (LAC) +1000 +140
Melvin Gordon (DEN) +900 +130
Javonte Williams (DEN) +1200 +175
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) +1200 +180
Cooper Kupp (LAR) +600 -125
Darrell Henderson Jr (LAR) +750 +110
Van Jefferson (LAR) +1300 +200
Davante Adams (GB) +650 -120
AJ Dillon (GB) +750 +105
Aaron Jones (GB) +750 +105
Dalvin Cook (MIN) +650 -125
Justin Jefferson (MIN) +900 +130
Adam Thielen (MIN) +1000 +140
Deebo Samuel (SF) +700 -110
Elijah Mitchell (SF) +800 +110
George Kittle (SF) +850 +125

Jonathan Taylor, at -200 odds, has the best odds to score a touchdown in Week 12. He is tied with Joe Mixon and Austin Ekeler for the best odds to score their game’s first touchdown at +450.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Week 12

Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

  1. Elijah Moore anytime touchdown (+190): the rookie has four touchdowns in his last three games, recording at least one in each. He also has a touchdown in four of his last five. Moore saw a whopping 11 targets last week and Corey Davis is now listed as doubtful. Zach Wilson will be back under center, but that won’t change the Jets’ plans to get Moore the ball. (0.25 units)
  2. Cam Newton anytime touchdown (+145): Newton has a rushing touchdown in both games this season. We should not be getting odds this long on Cam. (0.5 units)
  3. Ryan Tannehill anytime touchdown (+450): Tannehill has scored five touchdowns in 11 games this season. Since Derrick Henry got injured, he has a touchdown in two of three. (0.25 units)
  4. Odell Beckham Jr anytime touchdown (+225): no Robert Woods and the Rams had a full bye week to work OBJ into the offense. (0.25 units)
  5. Dalvin Cook anytime touchdown (-125): Cook has a touchdown in each of his last two and San Francisco has allowed 13 rushing touchdowns this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. This is a great price to pay for Cook, who is often shorter than -200. (0.5 units)
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