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Week 11 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, November 21

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Nov 20, 2021 · 10:58 AM PST

Derek Carr, Quarterback, Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) plays against the Pittsburgh Steelers in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
  • NFL player props for Week 11 are now available at sportsbooks
  • Matt McEwan is back this week with another eight props he’s highlighting
  • See the NFL player props he’s betting on Sunday as well as all the lines below

With a number of injury statuses cleared up as of today (Saturday), sports bettors have a bevy of NFL player props available for Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season. Week 11 also marks just the second time since Week 6 where we have at least 12 games being played Sunday, thanks to only the Rams and Broncos being on bye this week.

I went 4-5 on my best player props to bet in Week 9, winning 0.85 units. I’m now +3.10 units in my last six outings. My esteemed colleague Ryan Sura filled in last week, but got a little beat up. He went 2-5 to lose 1.59 units in Week 10.

I’m back with another eight player props I like for Sunday, November 21. You’ll find the NFL player props for Week 11 broken into sections below, with my best prop bets for each included.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Trevor Siemian (NO) 17.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 218.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +135 | Un -185)
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 19.5 (Ov -102 | Un -130) 206.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 23.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 254.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Joe Flacco (NYJ) 227.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165)
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) 20.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 229.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -185)
Cam Newton (CAR) 199.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +155 | Un -210)
Carson Wentz (IND) 20.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 222.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -185)
Josh Allen (BUF) 24.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 289.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -220 | Un +160)
Tim Boyle (DET) 181.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 0.5 (Ov -210 | Un +155)
Baker Mayfield (CLE) 18.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 220.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +100 | Un +135)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 250.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113) 1.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) 21.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 227.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200)
Tyrod Taylor (HOU) 21.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 233.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 237.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 1.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 271.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +165 | Un -225)
Kirk Cousins (MIN) 23.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 267.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 249.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105)
Justin Fields (CHI) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 212.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +165 | Un -225)
Joe Burrow (CIN) 23.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 267.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120)
Derek Carr (LV) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un +110) 282.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -165 | Un +120)
Russell Wilson (SEA) 240.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)
Dak Prescott (DAL) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 297.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +155 | Un -210)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 311.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +135 | Un -180)

All props as of November 20.

No surprise here, as Patrick Mahomes has the highest passing total set for Week 11. His line is listed at 311.5 as his Chiefs get set to take on the Cowboys in what’s expected to be a shootout—the Cowboys vs Chiefs game total is set at 56.5, easily the highest of the week.

Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 11

1) Tyrod Taylor OVER 233.5 Passing Yards (-114); risk 1 unit

I’ve made a good chunk of change betting the bad lines sportsbooks have been setting for Tyrod Taylor this season. I went 3-0 in Week 9 on Tyrod’s props. While sportsbooks have corrected themselves on some of his props, I’m still picking on one in Week 11: over 233.5 passing yards.

Taylor has thrown for 291, 125 (in one half), and 240 yards in his three starts this season. His passing yards line is as high as 239.5 at some sportsbooks, but FanDuel is offering it at 233.5.

The Titans rank 27th against the pass this season and have only held Carson Wentz under this passing total—a feat they accomplished twice. They have allowed Trevor Siemian to throw for 298, Trevor Lawrence to post 273, and Zach Wilson to drop 297 on them. Those outings are season-highs for Siemian and Wilson, while Lawrence’s was his third-best in nine starts.

2) Derek Carr OVER 282.5 Passing Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

The Bengals rank 24th against the pass, allowing an average of 260.3 yards per game through the air. However, that number is helped by an 83-yard performance by Andy Dalton / Justin Fields and a 192-yard game from Jared Goff.

If you remove those two games, they have allowed an average of 295.4 in their other seven. Mike White torched them for 405, Aaron Rodgers went for 344, and Kirk Cousins lit them up for 351 this season.

Derek Carr has gone over 282 passing yards in three of his last four, and is averaging 314 per game this season. Coming off of two straight losses, one ugly one to the Giants and one embarrassment at the hands of the Chiefs, I like the Raiders to be extremely aggressive in Week 11 against a weak Bengals pass defense.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Mark Ingram (NO) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 56.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 90.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 47.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Michael Carter (NYJ) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 77.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 13.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 15.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 65.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 115.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 16.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 103.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Zack Moss (BUF) 30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Nick Chubb (CLE) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jeff Wilson Jr (SF) 19.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
David Johnson (HOU) 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 34.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
AJ Dillon (GB) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 81.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 111.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 83.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 109.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
David Montgomery (CHI) 14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 59.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 88.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Joe Mixon (CIN) 15.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 65.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 86.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Josh Jacobs (LV) 12.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 16.5 (Ov -110 | Un -118) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 90.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)

Dalvin Cook has the highest rushing total set for Week 11. His line is offered at 83.5, just one yard higher than Nick Chubb and Jeff Wilson Jr.

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Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 11

1) Cam Newton OVER 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115); risk 1 unit

Cam Newton only played nine snaps in his return as a Panther last week, but he had a lot of fun in those nine snaps. Newton rushed three times for 14 yards and a touchdown, and also added another touchdown through the air.

He’s now been named Carolina’s starting quarterback for their Week 11 battle with Washington. But sportsbooks are not respecting the juice Cam still has in his legs. Newton averaged 39.5 rushing yards per game last season, going over 27.5 yards in eight of 15 contests.

 

This is a different Cam Newton, though. This is a spiteful Cam Newton who is so eager to prove all the haters wrong. This is also a much different situation than Newton was in last season. Carolina is not going to ask him to consistently win from the pocket like New England did last year.

The Panthers want to rely on their defense to win games. Sadly for DJ Moore fantasy owners, like myself, this is going to be a slow, boring offense that just wants to eat up clock.

2) Justin Fields OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards (-113); risk 0.5 units

Justin Fields has gone over this total in each of his last four games, rushing for 43, 38, 103, and 45 yards in those games. His rushing attempts in those contests have been significantly higher than his first three starts as well—three vs eight.

Chicago is finally cutting their rookie QB loose and utilizing all of his strengths. I suspect this will continue in Week 11 when they take on a blitz-happy Ravens defense. The Bears will also be without Allen Robinson on Sunday. It’s not that Fields loved targeting him, but it was a reliable receiver he was building chemistry with.

I like Fields to be flushed from the pocket often in this one, and forced to lean on his legs.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Deonte Harris (NO) 3.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Marquez Callaway (NO) 2.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 33.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tre’Quan Smith (NO) 3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -170) 35.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
DeVonta Smith (PHI) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -170) 57.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Quez Watkins (PHI) 35.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) 5.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Corey Davis (NYJ) 49.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) 39.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DeAndre Carter (WAS) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 5.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 46.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 16.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DJ Moore (CAR) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Michael Pittman Jr (IND) 4.5 (Ov -138 | Un +104) 61.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
TY Hilton (IND) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un -102) 33.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 16.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Cole Beasley (BUF) 46.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) 3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 6.5 (Ov -195 | Un -120) 83.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Austin Hooper (CLE) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
David Njoku (CLE) 1.5 (Ov -195 | Un +145) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 13.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jarvis Landry (CLE) 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 5.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
George Kittle (SF) 5.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Dan Arnold (JAX) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 43.5 (Ov -120 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Marvin Jones (JAX) 3.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 46.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 5.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 68.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Nico Collins (HOU) 27.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 15.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
AJ Brown (TEN) 5.5 (Ov -130 | Un -102) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Marcus Johnson (TEN) 31.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
AJ Dillon (GB) 3.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 28.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 13.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Davante Adams (GB) 7.5 (Ov -150 | Un +115) 97.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 28.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) 2.5 (Ov -180 | Un +135) 40.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Adam Thielen (MIN) 4.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 59.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 6.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 75.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mark Andrews (BAL) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Cole Kmet (CHI) 3.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 42.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Darnell Mooney (CHI) 3.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 5.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -125)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 5.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -120) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 3.5 (Ov -170 | Un +125) 40.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Bryan Edwards (LV) 3.5 (Ov +150 | Un -210) 41.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darren Waller (LV) 6.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Hunter Renfrow (LV) 5.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DK Metcalf (SEA) 5.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 65.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Gerald Everett(SEA) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 13.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 5.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Dalton Schultz (DAL) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 47.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -125)
Travis Kelce (KC) 6.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 77.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 23.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Tyreek Hill (KC) 6.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 87.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)

Davante Adams’ 97.5-yard receiving line for Sunday is the highest of all receivers for Week 11. Tyreek Hill is the next closest at 87.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 11

1) Dan Arnold OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115); risk 0.75 units

Dan Arnold has quickly become one of Trevor Lawrence’s favorite targets in Jacksonville. The tight end has led the team, or tied for the lead, in targets in three of their last five games. He has seen eight, five, ten, seven, and eight targets in those games.

With those targets, Arnold has gone over 42.5 receiving yards in four of those five, going for 60+ in each of those four.

The 49ers haven’t given up many yards to tight ends this season, but they also haven’t played a ton of teams who utilize their tight ends much in the passing game. The best game posted against them came in Week 1, when TJ Hockenson racked up 97 receiving yards.

Arnold is being featured in the Jacksonville passing attack, and this line is just way too low for a player receiving this many targets.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Mark Ingram (NO) +650 -105
Marquez Callaway (NO) +1600 +275
Tre’Quan Smith (NO) +1600 +275
Jalen Hurts (PHI) +850 +150
Jordan Howard (PHI) +1000 +170
DeVonta Smith (PHI) +1000 +170
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) +750 +125
Myles Gaskin (MIA) +900 +150
Mike Gesicki (MIA) +1000 +175
Michael Carter (NYJ) +850 +140
Corey Davis (NYJ) +1300 +220
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) +1400 +240
Antonio Gibson (WAS) +850 +140
Terry McLaurin (WAS) +1000 +175
J.D. McKissic (WAS) +1300 +230
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) +550 -125
Cam Newton (CAR) +800 +120
DJ Moore (CAR) +900 +160
Jonathan Taylor (IND) +750 -110
Michael Pittman (IND) +1300 +180
TY Hilton (IND) +1700 +240
Stefon Diggs (BUF) +800 +100
Josh Allen (BUF) +1000 +140
Zack Moss (BUF) +1000 +140
D’Andre Swift (DET) +1000 +180
TJ Hockenson (DET) +1600 +270
Jamaal Williams (DET) +1800 +310
D’Ernest Johnson (CLE) +450 -165
Nick Chubb (CLE) +450 -165
Jarvis Landry (CLE) +850 +150
Elijah Mitchell (SF) +550 -120
Jeff Wilson Jr (SF) +550 -120
Deebo Samuel (SF) +750 +115
James Robinson (JAX) +850 +130
Marvin Jones Jr (JAX) +1200 +190
Laviska Shenault Jr (JAX) +1600 +260
Brandin Cooks (HOU) +1000 +175
David Johnson (HOU) +1600 +280
Phillip Lindsay (HOU) +2500 +400
AJ Brown (TEN) +550 -125
Adrian Peterson (TEN) +700 +105
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) +850 +130
Davante Adams (GB) +550 -150
AJ Dillon (GB) +650 -125
Allen Lazard (GB) +1200 +190
Dalvin Cook (MIN) +650 -125
Justin Jefferson (MIN) +850 +115
Adam Thielen (MIN) +1000 +140
Lamar Jackson (BAL) +850 +125
Latavius Murray (BAL) +850 +140
Devonta Freeman (BAL) +850 +140
David Montgomery (CHI) +850 +130
Darnell Mooney (CHI) +1400 +240
Justin Fields (CHI) +1600 +260
Joe Mixon (CIN) +650 -120
 Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +750 +105
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1000 +140
Josh Jacobs (LV) +850 +110
Darren Waller (LV) +900 +120
Hunter Renfrow (LV) +1100 +150
James Conner (ARI) +650 -120
Christian Kirk (ARI) +1100 +150
AJ Green (ARI) +1200 +175
DK Metcalf (SEA) +750 +100
Alex Collins (SEA) +850 +115
Tyler Lockett (SEA) +1000 +130
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) +700 -130
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) +1000 +110
Michael Gallup (DAL) +1200 +140
Tyreek Hill (KC) +650 -140
Darrel Williams (KC) +800 -115
Travis Kelce (KC) +800 -115

Two Cleveland Browns running backs are tied for the best odds to score a touchdown in Week 11. D’Ernest Johnson and Nick Chubb are both given -165 odds to find the endzone against the Lions, as Cleveland is listed as 12.5-point favorites. They also share the best odds to score their game’s first touchdown, with both listed at +450.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Week 11

Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

  1. Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+155): Hurts does not have a rushing touchdown in his last four, but has averaged 10.8 rushing attempts and 62.3 yards per game in that period. A stingy Saints defense will force Philadelphia to get creative in the red zone. (0.33 units)
  2. Cam Newton anytime touchdown (+120): We shouldn’t be getting plus odds on Newton to score a touchdown. He ran for one last week, and found the endzone in 12 of 15 starts last year. (0.5 units)
  3. Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown (+105): this line is as short as -105 at other sportsbooks. He has a touchdown in seven of nine games this season. I suspect the Bengals spent a good portion of their bye week trying to find new ways to get their star rookie the ball. (0.33 units)

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