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Week 9 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, November 7

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Nov 6, 2021 · 12:45 PM PDT

NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds - Micah Parsons
Houston Texans quarterback Tyrod Taylor (5) throws a pass in the first half of a preseason NFL football game under pressure from Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) in Arlington, Texas, Saturday, Aug. 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Roger Steinman)
  • Week 9 NFL player props are now available at sportsbooks
  • There are nine player props Matt McEwan is betting on Sunday
  • See the props he’s betting on Sunday as well as all the lines below

Although a number of key players’ statuses are uncertain for Sunday, there are still a ton of NFL player props to bet for Sunday of Week 9 in the 2021 NFL season. I’m +2.25 units on the player props I’ve bet over the last five weeks after losing 1.67 units last week.

I’m back with another nine props I like for Sunday. You’ll find the NFL player props for Week 9 broken into sections below, with my best prop bets for each included.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 261.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Dak Prescott (DAL) 22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 277.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -225 | Un +165)
Josh Allen (BUF) 24.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 287.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -195)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) 22.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 227.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +145 | Un -195)
Kirk Cousins (MIN) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 273.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 19.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 242.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)
Baker Mayfield (CLE) 19.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 235.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170)
Joe Burrow (CIN) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 268.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +160 | Un -215)
Derek Carr (LV) 278.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113) 1.5 (Ov -170 | Un +125)
Daniel Jones (NYG) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 241.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155)
Matt Ryan (ATL) 248.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140)
Mac Jones (NE) 21.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 233.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 233.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tyrod Taylor (HOU) 19.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 227.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +112 | Un -148)
Justin Herbert (LAC) 288.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -200 | Un +150)
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 230.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 18.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 204.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Jordan Love (GB) 19.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 232.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +130 | Un -175)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 26.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105) 293.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -175)

All props as of November 6.

Patrick Mahomes owns the highest passing total of the week at 293.5, when his Chiefs take on the Packers. The lowest is set at 204.5 for Jimmy Garoppolo against the Cardinals.

Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 9

1) Tyrod Taylor OVER 227.5 Passing Yards (-114) & OVER 19.5 Completions (+100); risk 1 unit on each

One of my favorite player props that I bet this season came back in Week 2, when I took Tyrod Taylor to go over 19.5 completions against the Browns. The bet was spoiled when Taylor did not return for the second half due to injury.

However, sportsbooks are giving us another shot to expose them on a bad Taylor line in Week 9, his first game back.

Taylor threw for 291 yards on 21 completions in Week 1 against the Jaguars. He posted these numbers while playing with a mostly positive game script. Then in Week 2, he completed 10 passes for 125 yards in the first half against Cleveland, the league’s seventh-ranked pass defense.

On Sunday, Taylor gets the Dolphins, who rank 31st against the pass, and have allowed an average of 330.8 passing yards per game over their last four.

2) Derek Carr OVER 278.5 Passing Yards (-113); risk 0.5 units

Derek Carr is averaging 324.1 passing yards per game and has gone over this total in five of seven. Also, when he has gone over, the Raiders are 5-0. When he’s gone under, they’re 0-2.

I appreciate this offense loses a significant piece in Henry Ruggs, who led the team in receiving yards and yards per reception. (The much, MUCH more significant loss was the lives of the 23-year-old woman and her dog, to be clear.) But I don’t think this Las Vegas offense is a whole lot different without Ruggs.

We may finally see what all the offseason Bryan Edwards hype was about, and will get a lot more Zay Jones on the field. Plus, Darren Waller probably goes back to being a target monster—this bodes well for Carr’s passing numbers.

Ruggs only posted a reception longer than 40 yards in three of seven games. It’s not like his speed was the only reason Carr’s passing numbers have been huge. What makes me most confident with this one is the fact that the Raiders only average 3.5 yards per carry (31st). They have to pass.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Javonte Williams (DEN) 9.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 40.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Melvin Gordon (DEN) 10.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 40.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 59.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 17.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 75.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 94.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Zack Moss (BUF) 10.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 41.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 17.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 98.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 9.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Nick Chubb (CLE) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 86.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 97.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Joe Mixon (CIN) 15.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 60.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 80.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Josh Jacobs (LV) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 83.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Devontae Booker (NYG) 14.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 53.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 79.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mike Davis (ATL) 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 29.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 45.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) 34.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 72.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Alvin Kamara (NO) 18.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 75.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 117.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Damien Harris (NE) 16.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 72.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
David Johnson (HOU) 6.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 36.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 12.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 108.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Boston Scott (PHI) 44.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Chase Edmonds (ARI) 39.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
James Conner (ARI) 37.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Aaron Jones (GB) 14.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 96.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darrel Williams (KC) 11.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 48.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 68.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)

With Derrick Henry out for Week 9, and beyond, the highest rushing over/under belongs to Nick Chubb at 86.5.

 

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Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 9

1) Aaron Jones OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

Aaron Jones has gone over 62.5 rushing yards in four of his last seven. But he’s also played a handful of pretty good run defenses this season. That will not be the case in Week 9, when the Packers take on the Chiefs.

Kansas City ranks 28th in yards per carry allowed, surrendering 4.6 per tote. Green Bay will also be without Aaron Rodgers for this one, who tested positive for COVID-19 this week. I suspect this is going to mean a lot of extra carries for Jones with Jordan Love under center.

2) Tyrod Taylor OVER 18.5 Rushing Yards (-113); risk 0.5 units

It feels a little weird putting more money on Tyrod Taylor, but this is a disrespectful line. Taylor rushed for 40 yards in Week 1, and then 15 in the first half of Week 2. He has only gone under this rushing total in 12 of his 49 career starts.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 64.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Amari Cooper (DAL) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Laviska Shenault (JAX) 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +120) 38.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Marvin Jones (JAX) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Adam Thielen (MIN) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 5.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Mark Andrews (BAL) 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Marquise Brown (BAL) 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Austin Hooper (CLE) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jarvis Landry (CLE) 5.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 5.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 72.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -120) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Bryan Edwards (LV) 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -175) 41.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darren Waller (LV) 5.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 59.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -125)
Hunter Renfrow (LV) 5.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 57.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Evan Engram (NYG) 3.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 32.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 15.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Kadarius Toney (NYG) 4.5 (Ov -150 | Un +115) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Kyle Pitts (ATL) 5.5 (Ov +125 | Un -170) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tajae Sharpe (ATL) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 31.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 16.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Adam Trautman (NO) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 12.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Alvin Kamara (NO) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 37.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 15.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Marquez Callaway (NO) 2.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 37.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Nelson Agholor (NE) 37.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
DJ Moore (CAR) 64.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Robby Anderson (CAR) 28.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 65.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Nico Collins (HOU) 2.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) 5.5 (Ov -110 | Un -115) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Keenan Allen (LAC) 5.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 68.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mike Williams (LAC) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Dallas Goedert (PHI) 4.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
DeVonta Smith (PHI) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 57.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Aaron Jones (GB) 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -155) 30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 13.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Davante Adams (GB) 6.5 (Ov +120 | Un +160) 77.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) 1.5 (Ov -190 | Un +140) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Travis Kelce (KC) 6.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -120)
Tyreek Hill (KC) 6.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105) 83.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)

Tyreek Hill’ receiving over/under is the highest of Week 9, set at 83.5. Stefon Diggs is a close second at 82.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 9

1) Dallas Goedert OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

In two games without Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert has gone for 70 and 72 receiving yards on five and seven targets, respectively. The seven targets last week actually accounted for an absurd 50% target share in Week 8—only looking to Jalen Hurts targets. He has also gone over this total in four of his last five games.

The Chargers have been very good against the pass, giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards thus far.  But they have given up the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. This Chargers defense is the one that nearly restored all the David Njoku pre-draft hype, allowing him to go off for 149 yards.

Goedert has the trust of his quarterback Jalen Hurts, and I like this game to remain competitive enough for Hurts to continue looking for his tight end on the intermediate routes.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Melvin Gordon (DEN) +1200 +175
Javonte Williams (DEN) +1400 +210
Courtland Sutton (DEN) +1400 +190
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) +550 -150
Amari Cooper (DAL) +750 -105
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) +750 -105
Stefon Diggs (BUF) +650 -120
Josh Allen (BUF) +700 -105
Zack Moss (BUF) +850 +125
James Robinson (JAX) +1200 +175
Marvin Jones (JAX) +1400 +200
Laviska Shenault (JAX) +2200 +350
Dalvin Cook (MIN) +650 -125
Adam Thielen (MIN) +1000 +150
Justin Jefferson (MIN) +1100 +160
Lamar Jackson (BAL) +850 +120
Marquise Brown (BAL) +850 +120
Mark Andrews (BAL) +850 +120
Nick Chubb (CLE) +550 -140
Jarvis Landry (CLE) +1200 +190
Rashard Higgins (CLE) +1700 +260
Joe Mixon (CIN) +650 -120
 Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +650 -105
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1000 +150
Josh Jacobs (LV) +550 -125
Darren Waller (LV) +750 +125
Hunter Renfrow (LV) +1000 +180
Devontae Booker (NYG) +700 +100
Kadarius Toney (NYG) +1000 +180
Darius Slayton (NYG) +1200 +210
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) +1000 +165
Mike Davis (ATL) +1200 +210
Kyle Pitts (ATL) +1200 +190
Alvin Kamara (NO) +450 -140
Marquez Callaway (NO) +1100 +190
Deonte Harris (NO) +1200 +210
Damien Harris (NE) +650 +105
Jakobi Meyers (NE) +1100 +190
Hunter Henry (NE) +1200 +220
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) +850 +150
DJ Moore (CAR) +850 +150
Robby Anderson (CAR) +1300 +240
Brandin Cooks (HOU) +1000 +150
David Johnson (HOU) +1500 +240
Rex Burkhead (HOU) +2200 +380
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) +750 +110
Myles Gaskin (MIA) +850 +120
DeVante Parker (MIA) +850 +120
Austin Ekeler (LAC) +650 -120
Keenan Allen (LAC) +800 +120
Mike Williams (LAC) +850 +130
Boston Scott (PHI) +950 +160
Jalen Hurts (PHI) +950 +140
Dallas Goedert (PHI) +1000 +160
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) +850 +135
James Conner (ARI) +850 +135
Christian Kirk (ARI) +900 +155
Deebo Samuel (SF) +600 -110
Elijah Mitchell (SF) +600 -110
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) +900 +155
Aaron Jones (GB) +700 +100
Davante Adams (GB) +900 +130
AJ Dillon (GB) +2200 +380
Tyreek Hill (KC) +650 -120
Travis Kelce (KC) +700 -105
Darrel Williams (KC) +850 +125

The player with the best odds to score a touchdown in Week 9 is Austin Ekeler at -150. Alvin Kamara has the best odds to score his game’s first touchdown, though, seeing +450 odds.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Week 9

Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

  1. Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown (-105): The rookie has a touchdown in six of eight games this season, and seems to have his best games against tough opponents. He roasted the Ravens and Packers this season, catching a touchdown against both. This is another big one for the Bengals as they host the Browns. (0.33 units)
  2. Cordarrelle Patterson anytime touchdown (+165): Patterson has a touchdown in four of seven games this season, and this line is as short as +130 elsewhere. (0.33 units)
  3. AJ Dillon anytime touchdown (+380): In a game where I see Jordan Love handing the ball off early and often, especially considering the Chiefs can’t stop the run, this is a great value play. Dillon saw 16 carries last week, 11 in Week 6, and 15 in Week 4. His usage seems to be boom or bust, but a goal line touch is worth betting on at this price. (0.25 units)

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