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Expert Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Dec 2, 2023 · 3:07 PM PST

Denver Broncos defensive tackle Mike Purcell (98) following a defensive stop
Nov 26, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos defensive tackle Mike Purcell (98) following a defensive stop in the first quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
  • This week our expert NFL ATS picks have selections from six different games for Week 13
  • Can the 49ers cover as short road favorites over the 10-1 Philadelpia Eagles?
  • Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here

Another week, and more opportunities to try to cash some tickets and pick some winners with our weekly NFL picks against the spread. It’s been a tough goal for much of the season, but alas, we soldier on with picks on the 49ers over the Eagles, Chargers over the Patriots, dueling selections in the Broncos vs Texans game and more.

Read on for all of our top Week 13 NFL picks against the spread here.

NFL Expert Picks Today

Ryan Metivier Bob Duff Zach Reger
Chargers -5.5 Lions -4 Broncos +3.5
Texans -3 Broncos +3.5 Titans +1
49ers -3 Packers +6 49ers -3
Record: 14-19-3 Record: 11-24-1 Record: 16-18-2

This week’s most popular NFL ATS picks in the table above are the 49ers at -3 going on the road and getting revenge over the Eagles from last year’s NFC Championship, as well as the Broncos at +3.5 in Houston. However, shop around and if you like the Houston side, you can find a -3 on the Texans as well.

Before making your Week 13 picks against the spread, be sure to sign-up and bet on NFL with these apps to claim your new customer bonus for Week 13.


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Ryan Metivier

Chargers (-5.5)

Oh wow, this is scary to be riding with the Chargers on the road and laying points. LA is 4-7 and haven’t won in three weeks. But outside of scoring just ten points last week versus Baltimore, they did put up 20, 38, 27 and 30 in the weeks prior. They’re averaging 24.5 PPG (8th) and again outside of last week, haven’t scored fewer than 17 points in any other game.

While LA may not win often, their wins have come by 4, 7, 17 and 21 points so they’re capable of winning by this margin in the NFL lines.

The Patriots score just 13.5 PPG, which is oddly right about their combined points total from the past two games (13) losing 10-7 and 10-6. Only twice this season has a team held their opponents to ten points or less and … the Patriots have the distinction of being the team to fail to get the win both times. Mac Jones. Bailey Zappe. It doesn’t matter who gets trotted out at QB, this team is bad.

Texans (-3)

The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won five straight games where they’ve scored an average of 23.4 PPG. That’s just above their average of 22.4 on the season and just below Houston’s average of 23.5.

The Texans too have been hot, winners of three straight prior to last week’s 24-21 loss to the Jaguars. CJ Stroud continued his march towards winning Rookie of the Year though, the current favorite in the NFL Rookie of the Year odds. Stroud threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns, his fourth-straight game going over 300 yards and the third time in four games he’s thrown for multiple scores. In that four-game stretch he’s thrown for 1,466 yards and ten touchdowns.

The Broncos are improving Russell Wilson has been good, but great. He has a passing TD in every game this season, but only four in his last three games and has only thrown for over 200 yards once in his last seven games. Denver has also been aided by simply crazy turnover luck. Denver has seen a +13 turnover-differential in their recent five wins and 38% of their points scored have been set up from turnovers. That is simply unsustainable.

49ers (-3)

Revenge will be on the minds for San Fran here having lost in a route to the Eagles last year in the NFC Championship Game 31-7. That came with Brock Purdy getting knocked out of the game early through injury.

Purdy is in this time around, is 8-3 SU and riding a three-game winning streak coming into this game. He’s having a solid year with 19 TDs and 6 INTs, including 7 TD passes in his last three games, and nearly three 300-yard plus games in his last four (one game he threw for 296).

Look, the Eagles are an NFL-best 10-1 SU and 7-2-2 ATS and have just beaten the Chiefs and Bills in recent weeks. But that Bills game went deep into overtime last week in bad weather and saw the Eagles defense on the field for over 90 snaps in a wild 37-34 game. That defense also currently sees each of Jordan Davis, Fletcher Cox and Zach Cunningham questionable with injuries for Sunday.

Meanwhile, San Fran is rested having not played since Thanksgiving and will have had this game circled for some time. The 49ers are as healthy as they’ve ever been and with a passing offense ranked 8th overall, they should be able to make plays versus the Eagles pass defense that is way down in 29th.

Bob Duff

Lions (-4)

Detroit tends to bounce back well from a poor performances. As well, the Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

The Saints are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games against Detroit. But New Orleans is also 0-6 ATS in the club’s past six home games.

Broncos (+3.5)

Along with being 5-0 SU in the past five games, the Broncos are also 4-1 ATS. Also, Denver is 4-1 SU in the past five against Houston.

The Texans are 4-1 SU in their past five home games. Houston is 1-2 SU and ATS in three home games against Denver. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and 0-4 ATS this season as a home favorite.

Packers (+6)

Coming off a huge road win on Thanksgiving Day at Detroit, the Packers are shocking 6-point home underdogs to Kansas City. Granted, the Chiefs are 17-1 SU in their last 18 December games and 9-1 ATS in the past 10 road games.

However, Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in the last five against KC and 3-1 ATS in the past four games overall. The Chiefs are 2-4 ATS in their last six away games as a 6+ point chalk.

Zach Reger

Broncos (+3.5)

The Broncos are on a five-game winning streak after starting the season 1-5. They are the hottest team in football mostly due to them playing complementary football. Denver’s defense has turned it around and is forcing turnovers, while the offense has been playing mistake-free football.

CJ Stroud and the Texans have been one of the best passing offenses in the league this year, but Denver will make it more difficult for them on Sunday. This seems like a field goal game either way, so I like getting the Broncos at +3.5.

Titans (+1)

Before Week 5’s loss to the Colts, the Titans beat Indianapolis five times in a row. That trend should get back on track on Sunday.

Tennessee has not lost at their home stadium this season, and their pass rush finally showed up last week. Will Levis also gets his first crack against a QB-needy team that passed on him in the draft. The Titans have the slight edge in this AFC South battle.

49ers (-3)

The rematch of last year’s NFC Championship that everyone has been clamoring for is finally here. The 49ers will come into this game motivated to show that they are the best team in the conference.

Coming off the bye, San Francisco has looked almost unstoppable, winning each of their games by double-digits. While this one might not be double-digits, the 49ers have enough talent on both sides of the ball to beat the Eagles. San Francisco has also had extra time to rest and prepare for this one after playing on Thanksgiving, while the Eagles have won back-to-back close, hard-fought games against the Chiefs and Bills.

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