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Week 13 NFL Upset Picks – Underdogs Showing Value

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Dec 3, 2023 · 6:44 AM PST

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws the ball
Nov 26, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws the ball away as he is pressured by Tennessee Titans defensive end Denico Autry (96) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
  • Which NFL underdogs are poised to pull off the upset in Week 13?
  • After firing head coach Frank Reich, can the Panthers upset the Bucs?
  • Check out our favorite Week 13 NFL upset picks below

The season of mediocrity rolls on in the NFL with basically anyone capable of winning in any given game. A quick look down this weekend’s NFL spreads will show you that as many ten of Sunday’s 11 games have lines below a touchdown. That means there should be plenty of reasonable choices for our our NFL Week 13 upset picks.

NFL Week 13 Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Moneyline Pick Units Risked
Cardinals vs Steelers PIT -5.5 ARZ +200 ARZ 1 unit
Panthers vs Buccaneers TB -5 CAR +185 CAR 1 unit
49ers vs Eagles SF -3 PHI +136 PHI 1 unit

This week’s top NFL Week 13 upset picks come in on the Cardinals over the Steelers, Panthers vs Buccaneers and Eagles over the 49ers.

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Week 13 NFL Upset Picks

This week’s upset picks are focusing on three teams offering decent plus-money returns. I’m not convined one good (better) offensive showing in Pittsburgh is enough to warrant them being 5.5-point faovrites. Then we move into targeting our underdog picks on the Panthers with a new coach and also on the 10-1 NFL-best Philadelphia Eagles.

NFL Upset Picks 1: Cardinals vs Steelers

It’s hard to get too confident about the Cardinals even covering, much less winning outright on the road after last week’s complete no-show versus the Rams where they lost 37-14 at home.

They did keep it close the week prior losing 21-16 in Houston and won 25-23 versus Atlanta the home before that. Still, they’re 2-10 SU on the year.

The Steelers are 7-4 SU and currently in the playoffs They won last week 16-10 in Cincinnati and with Mike Sullivan calling the plays after Matt Canada got fired, Pittsburgh’s offense finally showed some life and finally out-gained an opponent (421-222) for the first time this season.

But, that still only resulted in 16 points. Pittsburgh averages just 16.5 PPG (28th), which is only just below Arizona’s 17.2 (25th).

A few notes though. The shackles may be off now that Canada is gone but this is still not a good Steelers’ offense. They lack the ability to run away from anyone and they got that win over a Bengals team playing without Joe Burrow and instead with backup Jake Browning.

The Cards have already seen Kyler Murray and James Connor return from injury and while they were hoping to get TE Zach Ertz back, he has instead been released to search for a contending team to join. They likely felt confident in allowing that request because fellow TE Trey McBride has stepped up this season and has averegd 70.2 yards in his past five games.

Pittsburgh’s seven wins have come by 6, 4, 4, 7, 7, 5 and 4 points. Close games like that mean the underdog always has a chance to cause an upset.

NFL Upset Picks: Cardinals (+200)

NFL Upset Picks 2: Panthers vs Buccaneers

Here’s another team that’s hard to get behind in the 1-10 Panthers who score an average of just 15.7 PPG (29th). Bryce Young and the offense have looked completely inept scoring just 10, 10, 13, 13 and 15 points in their past five games.

That definitely doesn’t sound like a team you want to back on the road. But Frank Reich was fired as head coach this week along with their quarterbacks and running backs coaches. So a change of voice, approach and that “new coach bump” could possibly give us a Panthers team with some more life this week.

On paper this looks like a much better Bucs team, but they’re just 4-7 SU themselves, have one win in their past seven games, have just allowed 27 points in back-to-back games and there’s no guarantee Baker Mayfield is 100-percent or even plays on Sunday after suffering an ankle injury last week.

NFL Upset Picks: Panthers (+185)

NFL Upset Picks 3: 49ers vs Eagles

Two favorites in the Super Bowl 58 odds meet here and the 49ers will be looking for a measure of revenge from last year’s NFC Conference Championship Game where San Fran went to Philadelphia without injured starting quarterback Brock Purdy and got routed 31-7

These two could again meet up in the playoffs this year with the 49ers 8-3 and first in the NFC West and Philadelphia 10-1 and first in the NFC East.

Philly just came off a hard-fought 37-34 overtime win over the Bills last week in bad weather which saw their defense play 95 snaps. So they could very well be gassed here.

But are you telling me their isn’t a value on the Super Bowl finalists, who are 10-1 SU, 7-2-2 ATS, both league bests, who just beat the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs two weeks ago and who’s starting QB Jalen Hurts is 26-2 SU in his last 28 starts? The odds may be against Philly here, but they’re certainly worth consideration in the NFL Week 13 upset picks.

NFL Upset Picks: Eagles (+136)

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