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Week 17 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, January 2

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Jan 1, 2022 · 12:59 PM PST

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel against the Seattle Seahawks during an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
  • NFL player props for Week 17 have opened at online sportsbooks
  • Matt McEwan has highlighted eight NFL props to bet for Sunday
  • See all the passing, rushing, and receiving lines, as well as touchdown odds below

In spite of having 15 NFL games to bet on Sunday (January 2) of Week 17, the NFL player props available are very sparse. A good handful of teams are dealing with uncertain injury statuses to key players and others are facing COVID outbreaks.

But as usual, I had no trouble finding props that are showing value for Sunday. I went 3-4 in Week 16, thanks to Miles Sanders going down early, losing 0.62 units. I’m now +7.63 units in my last 11 weeks. I’ve got eight props I like in Week 17.

You’ll find my picks below in each section, as well as all the lines for each set of NFL player props.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 207.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +120 | Un -195)
Tyler Heinicke (WAS) 204.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 1.5 (Ov +154 | Un -210)
Tom Brady (TB) 285.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Zach Wilson (NYJ) 207.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 23.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 245.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 224.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +130 | Un -175)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 286.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -210 | Un +155)
Joe Burrow (CIN) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 280.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -195 | Un +145)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) 287.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -235 | Un +170)
Davis Mills (HOU) 230.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Justin Herbert (LAC) 263.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -150 | Un +115)
Sam Darnold (CAR) 200.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 0.5 (Ov -230 | Un +170)
Taysom Hill (NO) 17.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 196.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +185 | Un -255)
Kyler Murray (ARI) 256.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)
Dak Prescott (DAL) 278.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -225 | Un +165)

All props as of January 1.

Matthew Stafford has the biggest passing yards line among quarterbacks playing in the two early blocks on Sunday of Week 17. Stafford’s over/under is set at 287.5. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady only trail him by one and two yards, respectively.

Taylor Heinicke has the lowest of the day at 204.5, though a handful of quarterbacks set to start Sunday—namely Trey Lance—do not have props available yet.

Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 17

1) Zach Wilson UNDER 207.5 Passing Yards (-115); risk 1 unit

This line is absurd. The only reason I’m not hammering it harder is because I hate putting too much stock into trying to read bad teams. But in 11 games this season, Zach Wilson has thrown for 208+ yards four times. Three of those came in his first four games of the season, meaning he has only surpassed this total once in his last seven games.

I do appreciate the Buccaneers defense not being great against the pass, but the Jets passing offense is abysmal with anyone other than Mike White under center.

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Wilson has recorded just 102 and 170 passing yards in his last two games, which came against the Jaguars and Dolphins, respectively. Even on 42 pass attempts against the Saints in Week 14, Wilson still only managed 202 yards.

The rookie’s passing yards line is as low as 199.5 at some sportsbooks. Pounce now before the line starts plummeting.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 44.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Ronald Jones II (TB) 67.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115)
Michael Carter (NYJ) 47.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 67.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Duke Johnson Jr (MIA) 38.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145)
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 105.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Joe Mixon (CIN) 71.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 91.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Sony Michel (LAR) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Alvin Kamara (NO) 15.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 64.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 96.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Taysom Hill (NO) 10.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Kyler Murray (ARI) 30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 54.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 72.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)

The rushing props available are even more bare than the passing props, unfortunately. Jonathan Taylor has the highest rushing line of the week at 105.5. The next closest is Joe Mixon at 71.5.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 17

1) Deebo Samuel OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110); risk 0.5 units

With it appearing Trey Lance will make his second career start in Week 17 against the Texans, I’m looking to the only San Francisco rushing prop currently available. Deebo Samuel’s rushing over/under opened at 36.5 but has since come down to 24.5.

The move is likely stemming from Elijah Mitchell having a chance to suit up for the first time since Week 13 and Jeff Wilson Jr receiving 35 carries over the last two weeks.

Here’s why I like the over on Deebo’s rushing yards, though: (1) Wilson was largely ineffective in Week 16 when the Niners were upset by the Titans, averaging just 3.21 yards per carry; (2) San Francisco rushed for 152 yards in Lance’s first start this season, their fifth-highest total of the season; (3) the Texans allow 4.7 yards per carry, 27th in the league, so Samuel won’t need many carries to go over this total; (4) Deebo has gone over this total in each of his last six games; and (5) Samuel only touched the ball four times in Lance’s first start, his fewest touches in any game this season—he averages 8.5 touches per game in his other 13.

Lance targeted Deebo nine times in that game against the Cardinals, but most passes were off-target. Kyle Shanahan wants the ball in Samuel’s hands and will hand it to him more often this week to ensure his top play-maker gets his opportunities. Even if we don’t get Trey Lance under center, I don’t like an unhealthy Jimmy Garoppolo—not to suggest I like a healthy Jimmy G—to get Samuel the ball through the air.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Dallas Goedert (PHI) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
DeVonta Smith (PHI) 3.5 (Ov -170 | Un +130) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Adam Humphries (WAS) 2.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 3.5 (Ov -175 | Un +130) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Antonio Brown (TB) 72.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Mike Evans (TB) 55.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) 4.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Michael Carter (NYJ) 17.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tyler Kroft (NYJ) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
DeVante Parker (MIA) 50.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) 6.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 42.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 17.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
AJ Brown (TEN) 5.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 68.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Geoff Swaim (TEN) 16.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 10.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Travis Kelce (KC) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tyreek Hill (KC) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 68.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 106.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 28.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tyler Higbee (LAR) 32.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 38.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -125)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 44.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
George Kittle (SF) 48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Keenan Allen (LAC) 74.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Mike Williams (LAC) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
DJ Moore (CAR) 5.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Robby Anderson (CAR) 3.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) 38.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Deonte Harris (NO) 33.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Marquez Callaway (NO) 2.5 (Ov -185 | Un +140) 38.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
AJ Green (ARI) 44.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Christian Kirk (ARI) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Zach Ertz (ARI) 53.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Amari Cooper (DAL) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 62.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Dalton Schultz (DAL) 47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)

Looking to the two early blocks of NFL games on Sunday, Cooper Kupp has the highest receiving line at 106.5. Keenan Allen at 74.5 is the next best.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 17

1) Antonio Brown OVER 72.5 Receiving Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

Before tailing this bet, make sure your sportsbook would grade the wager “no action” if Antonio Brown were to not suit up. Brown “tweaked” his ankle in practice this week and is listed as questionable against the Jets on Sunday. If Brown does play, I like him to continue serving as the focal point of the passing game, as he did last week when he saw 15 targets that he turned into ten receptions for 101 yards.

This was Brown’s first game since Week 6. It’s clear Tom Brady has good chemistry with Brown, and also wants to build upon that chemistry ahead of the playoffs with the Bucs losing Chris Godwin for the rest of the year.

The Jets can’t cover anyone, let alone one of the best route-runners in the league.

2) AJ Brown OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113); risk 0.5 units

AJ Brown’s season got off to an extremely slow start, never reaching 50 receiving yards in any of his first four games. Since then, he is averaging 90 receiving yards per game and has gone over this total in four of those seven games.

In his first game since Week 11, Brown torched the 49ers secondary in Week 16 for 145 yards and a touchdown. With no Derrick Henry, it is clear the Titans offense has to run through Brown. In a crucial game against the Dolphins in Week 17, I like Tennessee to continue feeding their star wide receiver.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Jalen Hurts (PHI) +700 +110
Jordan Howard (PHI) +750 +120
Boston Scott (PHI) +800 +130
Jaret Patterson (WAS) +750 +100
Terry McLaurin (WAS) +1000 +175
Jonathan Williams (WAS) +1800 +300
Antonio Brown (TB) +600 -120
Ronald Jones II (TB) +650 -110
Rob Gronkowski (TB) +1000 +150
Michael Carter (NYJ) +1000 +175
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) +1600 +290
Elijah Moore (NYJ) +2000 +350
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) +850 +170
Duke Johnson Jr (MIA) +1200 +250
DeVante Parker (MIA) +1400 +270
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) +750 +140
AJ Brown (TEN) +750 +150
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) +1400 +290
Dare Ogunbowale (JAX) +1200 +220
Marvin Jones (JAX) +1700 +350
Laquon Treadwell (JAX) +2000 +400
Damien Harris (NE) +400 -175
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) +400 -175
Kendrick Bourne (NE) +650 +130
Josh Jacobs (LV) +750 +120
Hunter Renfrow (LV) +1200 +175
Zay Jones (LV) +1800 +275
Jonathan Taylor (IND) +350 -215
Michael Pittman Jr (IND) +850 +140
T.Y. Hilton (IND) +1600 +290
Tyreek Hill (KC) +650 -120
Travis Kelce (KC) +750 +100
Darrel Williams (KC) +1000 +140
Joe Mixon (CIN) +650 -120
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +1000 +150
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1000 +130
Saquon Barkley (NYG) +750 +140
Kadarius Toney (NYG) +1400 +300
Devontae Booker (NYG) +1600 +330
David Montgomery (CHI) +500 -110
Darnell Mooney (CHI) +1100 +210
Justin Fields (CHI) +1200 +250
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) +1000 +150
Kyle Pitts (ATL) +1300 +225
Russell Gage (ATL) +1600 +275
Stefon Diggs (BUF) +650 -110
Devin Singletary (BUF) +750 +115
Josh Allen (BUF) +800 +120
Cooper Kupp (LAR) +450 -165
Sony Michel (LAR) +650 -110
Odell Beckham Jr (LAR) +900 +150
Mark Andrews (BAL) +1100 +175
Marquise Brown (BAL) +1300 +200
Tyler Huntley (BAL) +1400 +225
Brandin Cooks (HOU) +1200 +190
Rex Burkhead (HOU) +1300 +220
Nico Collins (HOU) +1400 +250
Elijah Mitchell (SF) +600 -120
Trey Lance (SF) +750 +115
Deebo Samuel (SF) +800 +120
Javonte Williams (DEN) +1000 +175
Melvin Gordon III (DEN) +1200 +190
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) +1500 +260
Austin Ekeler (LAC) +450 -150
Keenan Allen (LAC) +850 +140
Mike Williams (LAC) +1000 +175
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) +1000 +225
DJ Moore (CAR) +1300 +275
Ameer Abdullah (CAR) +1400 +300
Alvin Kamara (NO) +450 -125
Taysom Hill (NO) +650 +140
Deonte Harris (NO) +1100 +240
D’Andre Swift (DET) +700 +115
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) +1100 +200
Jamaal Williams (DET) +1600 +290
Rashaad Penny (SEA) +750 +130
DK Metcalf (SEA) +850 +140
Tyler Lockett (SEA) +900 +150
James Conner (ARI) +800 +110
Chase Edmonds (ARI) +800 +110
AJ Green (ARI) +1400 +210
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) +650 -120
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) +900 +120
Amari Cooper (DAL) +1000 +150

Jonathan Taylor has the best odds to score a touchdown in Week 17. His odds are set at -215. Taylor also has the best odds of any player to score their respective game’s first touchdown at +350.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Week 17

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why:

  1. Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown (+120): I cannot believe DraftKings is offering these odds. FanDuel has Samuel at -160 to score a touchdown against the team who has allowed the fourth-most points in the league. Deebo has a touchdown in five of his last six now. (0.75 units)
  2. Jaylen Waddle anytime touchdown (+170): Waddle has a touchdown in three of his last four now and gets a Titans defense that ranks 26th against the pass. (0.33 units)
  3. Tee Higgins anytime touchdown (+130): Higgins has been an absolute monster over the Bengals lastfive games, outside of their Week 15 stinker against the Broncos. The second-year receiver has gone over 113 yards in four of five with four total touchdowns. Against a Chiefs offense that will likely put Cincinnati in a negative game script, I like Higgins to continue his tear. (0.25 units)
  4. Rashaad Penny anytime touchdown (+130): Penny has been a workhorse for the Seahawks over the last three weeks, going over 130 rushing yards in two of three. He has scored three total touchdowns in that span and gets a Lions defense that has given up 16 rushing touchdowns this season. (0.33 units)
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