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Week 6 Sunday Night Football Props (Chiefs vs Patriots)

Tom Brady New England Patriots
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots welcome the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs to town on Sunday Night Football of Week 6 (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Sunday Night Football of Week 6 sees the Chiefs visit the Patriots
  • See the player props you should be considering

You shouldn’t need any extra incentive to want to watch the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs visit the 3-2 New England Patriots in what appears to be an early AFC Championship game preview, but here’s a few more reasons.

These are our three best prop bets for Sunday Night.

Best Week 6 Sunday Night Football Props

Prop #1: Which team will score first?

Which team will score first?   MyBookie Odds
Chiefs score first Even
Patriots score first -130

*All odds taken on 10/12/18

No online sports betting site will ever give you EVEN odds on a coin flip. But this is pretty darn close.

The way this matchup is shaping up, the team that loses the opening toss (and therefore receives the opening kick) should win this bet.

Four touchdowns and one 33-yard field goal is what Kansas City has produced on their first series this year. They move the ball against anyone.

And after seeing what the speedy Detroit Lions could accomplish against this aggressively slow Patriots defense, there’s a possibility of the Chiefs putting up some serious points in this one.

Then again, the Pats have points on three of their five opening series this season and KC’s D is nothing to write home about, hence this feels like a 50-50 proposition.

Considering those odds normally come with a vig, take the Chiefs.

Pick: Kansas City to score first (+100)

Prop #2: Kelce To Have More Receiving Yards Than Gronkowski

Kelce vs Gronkowski Prop   BetOnline Odds
Kelce More Receiving Yards than Gronkowski -164
Gronkowski More Receiving Yards that Kelce +108

Is this still a clash of the league’s two best tight ends?

In terms of their overall ceiling, maybe. But with the Patriots seemingly avoiding the use of their oft-injured tight end this season, the tale of the tape is not that close.

Kelce vs Gronk 2018 Stats (Per Game)

Travis Kelce
VS
Rob Gronkowski

9.2 Targets 6.2
5.6 Receptions 4.6
81.4 Receiving Yards 61.6
95.9 % of Offensive Snaps 89.2

If you bet this prop every week this season, the only time Gronk came out on top was back in Week 1.

On Sunday, you may have some concern over Bill Belichick scheming to take Kelce out of the game, but considering that strategy led to an absolute beatdown from Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill last year, I would guess that won’t be the case.

The Patriots rank 18th in defensive DVOA against tight ends, while the Chiefs are 22nd, so both players should eat to their heart’s content.

But considering the early season Pats seem more concerned with keeping their big man healthy than forcing him the ball, go with the favorite here.

Pick: Kelce to have more receiving yards than Gronkowski (-164) 

Prop #3: James White scores Patriots first touchdown

Player to score Patriots first TD MyBookie Odds
James White +370
Sony Michel +370
Rob Gronkowski +400
Julian Edelman +550
Josh Gordon +650

Austin Eckler, Kyle Juszczyk, Phillip Lindsey, and TJ Yeldon all provided the first touchdown for their respective teams against the Chiefs.

That’s not exactly a star-studded list of backfield players and goes to show just some of the issues KC has defending running backs.

Despite trading away Marcus Peters in the offseason, the Chiefs corners have actually been alright this season.

The weakness of this pass defense has been up middle at linebacker and safety. That means the Patriots should be able to move their most effective receiver into some favorable matchups.

And yes, their best receiver this year has been White.

White is averaging a touchdown a game this season.

He’s also averaging 8.8 targets per game and 4.6 carries, meaning he’ll have his chances to find paydirt against the Chiefs. It’s worth a little wager that he’ll get New England’s first.

Pick: James White to score Patriots first touchdown (+370)

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Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.