Week 9 NFL Upset Picks – Underdogs Showing Value
- We’re picking three NFL underdogs in Week 9 who could cash some plus-money tickets for underdog bettors
- Can the Bucs and Commanders go on the road and get wins as short road dogs?
- Check out our favorite Week 9 NFL upset picks below
NFL Week 9 features a ton of games lined around a field goal so it’s unlikely we see too many huge Week 9 NFL upsets, unless the Saints or Browns go down in flames to the Bears or Cardinals. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t some good plus-money to be found as with so many near coinflips, surely some dogs will be barking and cashing NFL underdog picks.
Below we’ll make a case for two short dogs plus the Seahawks pulling an upset in Baltimore for this week’s NFL upset picks.
NFL Week 9 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders vs Patriots | NE (-3) | WAS (+136) | WAS | 1 |
| Buccaneers vs Texans | HOU (-3) | TB (+124) | TB | 1 |
| Seahawks vs Ravens | BAL (-6) | SEA (+210) | SEA | 1 |
This weekend’s Week 9 NFL upset picks have the Commanders at +136, Buccaneers at +124 and Seahawks at +210 hitting the board as potential live underdog. Odds from DraftKings Sportsbooks November 4, 2023. Check out DK and all of the best NFL betting promos before making your NFL underdog picks to get a great football betting bonus this weekend.
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Week 9 NFL Upset Picks
This weekend we have a lot of mediorcre or bad teams playing eachother. We also have a lot of backup quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks and just plain uncertainty all across the board. It’s a perfect recipe for some underdogs cashing. In the case of our first two picks, how can you feel confident laying points with the Patriots and Texans? We’ll go the other way in our upset picks. Seattle is probably in that tier of teams just below the top group, which does include the Ravens. But maybe we can catch Baltimore looking ahead to two upcoming divisional games in the weeks ahead.
NFL Upset Picks 1: Commanders vs Patriots
It’s not that the Commandes inspire me with a ton of faith, especially after trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat on NFL Trade Deadline Day. But they at least have moments. Rare moments, but they’re at least 3-5 compared to the Patriots 2-6. And after the top five quarterbacks of Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Josh Allen, guess who is right there in passing yards? Washington’s Sam Howell at sixth overall.
Last week Washington led over Philly for most of the game until late on. They also lost another game to the Eagles in overtime earlier in the season.
Sometimes Washington’s offense clicks. They’re 17th overall and average 21.4 PPG. The Pats’ offense is 31st averaging a lowly 14.8 PPG. New England has only hit 20 points on offense twice this season and have gone over 20 points only once.
Basically, whoever the underdog is in this game in the NFL odds is worth a bet as an upset pick. In this case, it’s the Commanders.
NFL Upset Picks: Commanders (+136)
Commanders QB Sam Howell’s Last 3 Games are 🔥🔥
• 797 Passing Yards
• 29 Rushing Yards
• 7 Passing Touchdowns
• 29.39 Average FPTS 🚀🚀 pic.twitter.com/rytSlk2CE2— Brendan Fick (@brendanfickff) November 2, 2023
NFL Upset Picks 2: Buccaneers vs Texans
Both of these teams have been slightly better than expected this season. The Bucs with Baker Mayfield are 3-4 and have a legit shot at winning the NFC South.
The Texans, with rookie CJ Stroud, probably won’t win th AFC South, but they too are 3-4.
But then last week, the Texans went to Carolina and played another rookie QB in Bryce Young and the Panthers who were previously 0-6 and lost 15-13.
When you can lose to an 0-6 team you can clearly lose to anyone. Mayfield has a few more weapons to work with with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and could certainly pull off the upset.
NFL Upset Picks: Buccaneers (+124)
CJ Stroud on how difficult it is to decipher looks, disguises, blitzes that defenses show in a short amount of time #Texans pic.twitter.com/ELa3TxBej0
— Shaun Bijani (@ShaunBijani) November 1, 2023
NFL Upset Picks 3: Seahawks vs Ravens
The Seahawks defensive strength is against the run, ranking 8th compared to 22nd against the pass. That’s one path to success against the Ravens whose offense goes through the run. To improve that already strong run defense of the Seahawks, Seattle also added Pro Bowl DE Leonard Williams prior to the trade deadline who has 22 pressures this season. In the secondary, CB Devon Witherspoon grades out as PFF’s fourth-best player in coverage.
The Ravens may be 6-2 and leading the AFC North, but only three of those six wins have come against teams with a winning record, the Browns, Bengals and Lions. And ok, you may be thinking wins over three winning teams isn’t too bad. But they beat the Browns with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB and the Bengals in Week 2 with a hobbled Joe Burrow.
Otherwise, they’ve defeated the Texans (3-4), Titans (3-5) and Cardinals (1-7). And that Cardinals game got dicey in the end last week only seeing Baltimore win 31-24.
It’s not that Seattle (3-4 ATS) have been making money for their backers either, but the Ravens own an even worse ATS mark of just 3-5.
NFL Upset Picks: Seahawks (+210)
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
