NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• The Ravens host the Bengals on TNF in Week 10 in a huge AFC North matchup
• Losers of four in a row, the Giants face the Panthers at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany
• Below, see my favorite NFL Week 10 ATS picks and early lines to target

We still have one game left in Week 9, but the lines for NFL Week 10 have already been out for nearly 24 hours. Week 10 starts with a huge AFC North matchup between the desperate Cincinnati Bengals (4-5, away, ATS) and high-scoring Baltimore Ravens (6-3, 3-1 home, ATS) on Thursday Night Football, and that’s also where my Week 10 ATS picks begin.

Early NFL Week 10 ATS Picks

The Bengals are catching 6.5 points on the road at Baltimore, but I’m moving that up to 7.5 and taking Cincinnati to cover.

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Week 10 ATS Pick #1: Bengals +7.5 (-152) at Ravens

Let’s get one counterpoint out of the way early: the Cincinnati defense is bad. They sit 26th in D-DVOA and 28th in scoring (25.2 PPG). They were absolutely shredded when they faced the Ravens in Week 5, a game Cinci lost (41-38) despite Joe Burrow throwing for 392 yards and five touchdowns with a 137.0 passer rating.

There is every chance that Lamar Jackson is going to make them look foolish again.

Every angle of Lamar Jackson's insane stiff-arm touchdown vs. the Bengals that may be his greatest highlight ever. 💪😈 pic.twitter.com/reBzzsi8P8

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) October 7, 2024

But unless you get the Bengals on a rare off night for Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase (who sits second in the league in receiving yards with 717 and and first in TDs with 7) like the Eagles did in Week 8, then good luck distancing this team. Only one of their five losses this season has come by more than six points. They led the vast majority of their matchups with the Chiefs and Ravens, inarguably the two best teams in the AFC right now.

It’s not often you’ll get a team as good as the Bengals catching this many points in primetime against a bitter division rival.

Week 10 ATS Pick #2: Panthers -2.5 (+210) vs Giants

Call me a pessimist but I just don’t know if the Daniel Jones era is going to work out in the Big Apple.

All jokes aside, the Giants are in a tailspin, losing four in a row, both straight-up and against the spread. They’ve been competitive the last two weeks against quality competition, falling 26-18 in Pittsburgh and 27-22 at home to Washington, but few would argue that they deserved to win either game.

The Giants aren’t terrible but, outside of Dexter Lawrence’s ability to get after the QB, they don’t do anything particularly well.

The Panthers picked up their second win of the season last week at home against the Saints, coming from behind for a 23-22 win. It would be disingenuous to say Carolina deserved that W. They were outgained 427 to 246 by Derek Carr and company, who shot themselves in the foot over and over again with penalties (10 for 109 yards). But Bryce Young wasn’t a disaster under center (16/26, 171 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and his numbers would have looked considerably better if his receivers had been able to hold onto the ball.

Two of the best throws of Bryce Young's career were dropped pic.twitter.com/zo9Zut5Qur

— Billy M (@BillyM_91) November 4, 2024

Carolina’s game-winning TD drive with three minutes to play may just be the catalyst Young needs to get his career on track.

With this matchup overseas, expect the unexpected. The Giants aren’t good enough to run anyone out of any building and I like the value on the Panthers to win by a field goal in a high-variability game.

Week 10 ATS Pick #3: Cardinals -2.5 (+105) vs Jets

Don’t look now but the Cardinals are pretty good. Arizona has won three straight and four of its last five. That streak has vaulted the Cardinals to the top of the hyper-competitive NFC West (5-4), half a game up on the 49ers and Rams and one game up on the Seahawks.

They aren’t beating terrible teams, either. Three of their last four wins came against the Niners, Chargers, and Bears, who are a combined 13-11 with a +110 point differential. The other was against the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa.

I’ve been fading the Jets since the preseason. (NYJ under 10.5 wins was my favorite NFL win totals bet.) They kept their season on life support last week with a 21-13 win over the Texans on TNF, snapping a five-game losing streak. But that victory was far from convincing. New York lost the yardage battle (322 to 293) and benefitted from two missed Houston field goals, including a chip-shot from 27 yards.

fairbairn misses from 27 pic.twitter.com/OF5ASUkCYC

— ◇ (@HOODH3RO) November 1, 2024

The Texans were also without their top-two receivers. Arizona is comparatively healthy and getting solid production from QB Kyler Murray (1,792 yards, 67.1 CMP%, 11 TDs, 3 INTs), RB James Conner (664 rush yards, 4 TDs), TE Trey McBride (481 receiving yards), and rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr (445 receiving yards, 5 TDs).

The defense has also taken a huge step up compared to last year, when they finished dead-last in D-DVOA (17.3%) and second-last in scoring (26.8 PPG). This year, the Cards are 19th in D-DVOA (1.9%) and allowing 23.8 PPG, a full field-goal improvement.